Key elements of the report:
On April 6, 2021, the company released its 2020 performance report, achieving total revenue of 12.846 billion yuan for the whole year, a year-on-year decrease of 8.83%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 705 million yuan, a decrease of 26.28% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 923 million yuan, a decrease of 4.12% over the previous year. Furthermore, the company's earnings forecast for the first quarter of 2021 revealed that net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the first quarter is expected to be 550 million yuan to 750 million yuan, and a loss of 58.87 million yuan for the same period last year, turning a loss into a profit over the same period last year.
Investment highlights:
The performance in the first quarter was impressive, and the volume and price of the coke sector increased steadily: the company's Q1 profit in 2021 is expected to reach 550 million yuan to 750 million yuan of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first quarter, with a loss of 58.87 million yuan for the same period last year, turning a loss into a profit over the same period last year. First, driven by continued high coke prices; second, the domestic COVID-19 epidemic has been basically controlled, and the company's main product production has increased compared to the same period last year; third, coke projects in the Huasheng Chemical Project with an annual output of 3.85 million tons have been put into operation one after another, and the sharp rise in volume and price has led to an increase in the company's performance.
The hydrogen energy sector has a broad layout, and the synergistic effect of the whole chain is strong: the company lays out the hydrogen energy sector from the entire hydrogen production - hydrogen refueling station - membrane electrode - electric stack - vehicle industry chain, giving full play to the synergistic advantages of the whole chain layout. The company has successively built hydrogen refueling stations all over the country, planning 100 stations across the country. The first fixed hydrogen fueling station in Qingdao operated by the company has been put into operation with a hydrogen refueling capacity of 1,000 kg/day. Its subsidiary, Flying Spur, is the largest hydrogen fuel cell bus company in China, with an annual production capacity of 5,000 units. The 20-year H1 achieved operating income of 288 million yuan and net profit of 19.82 million yuan. The holding company Hongji Chuangneng currently has confirmed orders for more than 500,000 fuel cell membrane electrodes. In the future, revenue is expected to maintain a tenfold growth rate of three years under policy impetus. Of these, the revenue forecast for 2020/2021 is 85/170 million yuan respectively.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's revenue for the year 2020 to 2022 is estimated to be 128,46/218.03/22.709 billion yuan respectively, net profit of 704/27.18/3.304 billion yuan respectively, corresponding EPS is 0.16/0.64/0.77 yuan/share, and PE is 40.53/10.50/8.64 times respectively. Combining the fundamentals of the coking and hydrogen energy business, a valuation of 40 billion yuan was given, with a target price of 941 yuan. We continue to be optimistic about Meijin Energy's future performance in the market and maintain the company's “increase holdings” rating.
Risk factors: Coke prices are falling; the development of the hydrogen energy sector falls short of expectations.
