Main points of investment:
The high performance for the whole year, the improvement of product structure and proper cost control promote profitability. 1) in 2020, the company achieved revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, an increase of 16.87% over the same period last year, of which Q4 revenue was 511 million yuan, an increase of 15.25% over the previous month. 12.06%. For the whole year, 1.1083 million crankshafts were sold, an increase of 22.68% over the same period last year, which was higher than the growth rate of 13.02% of crankshaft revenue, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of passenger car crankshafts with lower prices. The blank income of clutch / gear / crankshaft increased by 18.24% 30.19% and 9.80% compared with the same period last year. The company's gross profit margin decreased by 0.56 pct year-on-year, mainly due to the fact that 30.1875 million yuan of sales and transportation expenses were included in the manufacturing cost project to affect the main gross profit margin-1.84% according to the new accounting standards. after deducting this influence factor, the actual gross profit margin increased by 1.28pct compared with the same period last year. The company's product structure improvement and intelligent transformation effect appears.
2) the company achieved a net profit of 201 million yuan for the whole year, an increase of 50.47% over the same period last year, which is much higher than the growth rate of income.
After adding back the sales and transportation fees, the expense rate during the period of the company actually decreased by 1.42pct compared with the same period last year, and the corresponding net interest rate increased by 2.53pct compared with the same period last year. Therefore, the improvement of product structure and proper cost control are the main reasons for the high profit of the company. 3) the net operating cash flow of the company was 272 million yuan, down 21.69% from the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in deposit expenditure on bank acceptance bills and various taxes and fees. 4) the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a total distribution of 118 million yuan, accounting for 59.03% of the mother's net profit. The dividend yield corresponding to the closing price on April 7 is 3.15%, which is higher than 2.37% in 2019.
New customers and new products work together to support the future growth of the company.
The company's automotive crankshaft is mainly used for automotive internal combustion engine, there is a 1:1 ratio relationship. Therefore, the sales of downstream automotive internal combustion engines will directly affect the demand of matching crankshafts. While achieving remarkable results in the development of new products for old customers, the company is also actively developing new customers and has become a supplier of crankshafts and blanks to large international enterprises such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volvo, Renault Nissan, Cummins, Hino, Yema and MTU, and has entered the customer supply system of SAIC GM, Sinotruk, Fukuda Cummins and so on. As the company continues to promote the internationalization of customers, the high-end products and the expansion of non-road machinery supporting facilities, the product structure will continue to improve (at present, the proportion of non-road machinery supporting products revenue and international customer income has reached 30%). Market share is expected to continue to grow, profitability will continue to improve. Among them, the company is gradually expanding the matching strength of domestic joint venture commercial vehicles and international high-end passenger vehicles forged steel crankshafts, which will become an important growth point of the company in the future.
Enter the field of large crankshaft and enjoy the rise of quantity and profit in the future.
The company has established a joint venture with Alfen, Germany, the world's largest independent supplier of large crankshafts, to lay out the large crankshaft market, which is mainly used in many fields such as ships, construction machinery and nuclear power generator sets, with considerable overall market space and high unit price and profit margin of large crankshafts. Therefore, the company actively develops the large crankshaft matching market, which will help to improve the company's growth space and profit margin in the future. According to the plan, the joint venture is expected to supply MTU, Wasilan and Dalian CRRC in bulk this year, and its annual sales are expected to more than double, thus helping the company to further improve its product structure.
Layout precision forgings business, help international high-end customers to develop and reduce costs and increase efficiency wholly-owned subsidiary Fuda forging main precision forgings products, 2015-20 precision forgings sales increased from 703200 to 1.7437 million, an annual compound growth rate of 19.92%. Fuda forging pays equal attention to both inside and outside, which effectively extends the company's product industry chain, improves the company's technology and equipment level, helps to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and helps to open up high-quality customers on the outside. With the completion of the upgrading project of digital and intelligent forging technology and the proposal to increase the construction of large crankshaft blank forgings, the matching capacity of precision forgings of the company will continue to be significantly improved in the future. so as to further help the company to achieve the dual goals of international high-end customer development and cost reduction and efficiency.
Profit forecast, maintain "overweight" rating
To sum up, we expect that the company's EPS in 2021-23 will be 0.450.54 PE 0.65 yuan per share, corresponding to 2021-23 PE is 14-12-10 times, the company's active developers take advantage of the high-end market to expand supporting non-road machinery, at the same time, large-scale crankshaft market development is about to usher in a new breakthrough, future growth space will open, product structure and profitability are expected to continue to improve, to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: automobile production and sales are depressed and exceed expectations; customers and large crankshaft market development are lower than expected; steel prices are rising faster than expected.
