Main points of investment:
Performance in line with expectations, increase holdings. Considering the postponement of the recovery time of outbound travel, the target price will be reduced by 0.13 yuan in 2021 / 22 to-0.29 EPS (- 0.33 EPS) in 2023, 0.20 yuan in 2023 and 56xPE in 2023, and the target price will be reduced to 11.30 yuan.
Performance summary: the company achieved revenue of 1.615 billion /-73.25% in 2020, with a net loss of 698 million (a profit of 126 million in the same period last year) and a non-net loss of 763 million (a profit of 74 million in the same period last year).
Outbound travel business is difficult to recover in the short term, expand domestic tourism and tourism retail business. 1 the impact of the epidemic is obvious, the outbound travel business has stagnated, and the catering business has slowed down sharply: tourism service income 1.039 billion /-78.87%, catering business income 468 million /-56.65%. Under the pressure of business stagnation, the company has maintained a healthy and stable cash flow. The net cash flow of operating activities for the whole year is 308 million, and the book monetary fund is 709 million. 3 as the leader of outbound travel, the company has strong reusability in the fields of domestic tourism, tourism media operation and tourism retailing. Under the impact of the epidemic, the company adjusts its strategic operation direction for the whole year: creating high-quality domestic tourism; exploring new tourism scenes; strengthen private flow operation; cut into offline life experience stores.
Focusing on the internal circulation of tourism and the Hainan market, the duty-free business is advancing steadily. 1 the company has reached strategic cooperation with the Sanya city government, Hainan rubber and other Hainan enterprises, and will combine its own resources, ability and endowment advantages to provide many tourism products and services, including boutique tours, island health care, vacation tours and other tourism products and services; 2 the company participates in the landing of the Chinese duty-free shop project in Beijing, and sets up a tax-free group in Haikou to introduce Wenyuan equity investment fund, which is expected to participate in the tax-free business of Hainan Island in the future.
Risk hint: the overseas epidemic situation can not be recovered in the medium and long term, and the domestic epidemic situation is at risk again and again.