Recently, ships trapped in the Suez Canal are finally out of trouble, and the canal congestion that has attracted global attention has begun to ease, but the losses and effects remain. Under the butterfly effect, the stranding of this giant freighter not only affected the navigation of hundreds of ships, but also had an unexpected impact on the global cargo supply chain.

In addition, the growth rate of global container ship orders is at the highest level in nearly a decade. Some people in the industry said that under the stimulation of many large orders recently, the global transportation industry is likely to set off a new round of competition.

Against this background, Tencent invited Han Jun, chief analyst of CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD Transportation, to interpret in detail the follow-up impact of the Suez Canal blockage, judge the prosperity of the oil transportation and collection market, and share the investment methodology of the transportation industry.

Main points of communication

1. The blockage of the Suez Canal will have a knock-on impact on collection and transportation, and there is room for a certain increase in freight rates.

Tencent Finance and Economics: what is the impact of the Suez Canal blockage on global trade and capital markets?

Han Jun: first of all, there is the impact on trade, because there are many kinds of global trade. Here we focus on the analysis of oil transportation and container transportation market.

In terms of oil transportation, a single incident will certainly lead to a lengthening of transportation distance, but the blockage of the Suez Canal will not be the core variable that determines the oil transportation market. Because the main contradiction in oil transportation comes more from the fact that crude oil inventories are generally high after the collapse of oil prices last year, which needs to consume inventories. During this period, some marginal supply-side contraction can reduce supply in the short term, but the impact will not be great.

Therefore, the recent rebound in oil freight rates is not enough to drive the block market.

In terms of collection and transportation, the impact will be more specific. Because collective transportation is a shift and scheduled operation mode, once it is congested, it will affect the whole shipping schedule. There will be a series of chain reactions after long-term interference. There may be a large number of empty shifts from mid-late April to early May, which will lead to insufficient transport capacity in the current period. Recently, some positions have been burst on the weekly line, which makes the freight rate have some room to rise under the background of the widening gap between supply and demand.

In addition, in addition to affecting flight scheduling, a large number of clogged ships will be concentrated at the port, causing some congestion in the port.

Finally, there may be problems with the transfer of empty containers, so this is a series of chain reactions. Of course, the impact will also have a certain time lag, because some things will not be reflected in the current period.

2. There is no need to put too much emphasis on the attribute of shipping cycle, it is more important to look at the value of the industry.

Tencent Finance and Economics: in this big shipping cycle, you took the lead in digging and firmly optimistic about the industry leader at the bottom and became famous in the first World War. What was your firm strength and logic at that time? How long can the boom of this shipping cycle last?

Han Jun: first of all, from our long-term tracking of the industry, we have established a very detailed high-frequency database, and we will keep an eye on the changes of these indicators. For example, we will have weekly data on imports of seaborne containers from the United States, we will look at the demand of the United States, and then we will see what are the factors driving the demand of the United States. How long will these factors last, and will they happen again in the future?

After a series of analysis, we will find that some factors can continue to exist, so in the off-peak season transition, we are still optimistic about this industry.

The second comes from a very complete collection and transportation analysis framework that we have established. We have considered the changes in the industry pattern and the development trend of the industry in the past few years, not because it is a collection and transportation, it is a cycle, and then use a cyclical perspective, or use an outdated thinking to think about the industry.

In addition, because I am an industrial background, my industrial background helps me to understand some in-depth details of the industry, including some project planning for relevant government departments and understanding the underlying logic of some enterprise operation.

Judging from the current situation, the US $2 trillion infrastructure stimulus will lead to an increase in the entire shipping demand side. After the policy gradually withdraws or the effect attenuates, it will return to a normal state. However, we will not put special emphasis on the cyclical nature of shipping, or to see whether the industrial value of the company or industry in the future is worth configuring.

3. Three indicators to observe the prosperity of shipping stocks.

Tencent Finance and Economics: could you share your cycle methodology? How to grasp the cycle of shipping stocks? What indicators can be seen?

Han Jun: we believe that the ultimate source of profit in the whole industry is the pattern, which we will define by the organic combination of market share and pricing power.

Therefore, we do not strictly define whether the company is cyclical or grow. we will analyze the current industry growth environment of the company, the enterprise development life cycle in the future, as well as the industry position of the company. and whether the ecology can evolve continuously.

Of course, a large cycle is inevitable, everything is a cycle, all industries are cyclical, but the length of the cycle, the size of the cycle is different. But what we want to track is what range the reasonable market capitalization of the company should be in regardless of the fluctuation of the industry cycle.

Shipping stocks have a certain periodicity. The indicators we track are divided into three categories, the first is the economic boom index, such as the growth of PMI and GDP, and the second is the trade index, which tracks some changes in trade volume, such as global trade volume, some specific trade volume in fine molecular industries, and container traffic on a monthly or even weekly basis. The third category of indicators are some price factors of the industry itself, such as the price of shipbuilding, the price of second-hand ships, the price of ship dismantling and the price of freight.

4. High-speed rail stocks have high certainty at present.

Tencent Finance and Economics: apart from civil aviation and shipping, are there any investment opportunities worth paying attention to in the transportation industry?

Han Jun: more optimistic about high-speed rail stocks, the logic is similar to aviation, but the match between earnings and valuation will be faster and more certain than aviation. In addition, the timing resources of high-speed trains will be optimized in terms of structure and quantity. High-speed rail fares, there is already room for fare increases, there will be a state of volume and price increases.

5. The core of all methodology is "dismantling".

Tencent Finance and Economics: how should the transportation industry screen high-quality companies? As an "old driver" in the field of transportation research, can you share some useful methodologies?

Han Jun: first of all, the nature of transportation can be understood from two aspects: one is the point, which is the node target of airports, ports and warehouses; the other is the line, that is, the network problem. The node looks at the location, the line looks at the scale, the location determines the ceiling of profit, and the line determines economies of scale. In addition to warehouses, airports, ports and other node-type enterprises generally have a gross profit margin of no less than 30%, or even up to 50%, which is related to the location.

The core of all methodology is "split", which divides the company's revenue and cost into variables that can no longer be split. At this time, it is necessary to make a quantitative understanding of the impact factors or driving variables of each item.

Of course, there are some dimensions that can be used to target some international companies. But in the process of benchmarking, do not seek swords, mechanical alignment, to understand what each company's business model is.