Event: on April 6, 2021, company 1) released its 2020 results KuaiBao, the company's total operating income in 2020 was 12.846 billion yuan, down 8.83% from the same period last year; the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 705 million yuan, down 26.28 yuan from the same period last year; the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 923 million yuan, down 4.12% from the same period last year. 2) according to the profit forecast for the first quarter, the company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to be 550 million yuan to 750 million yuan in the first quarter, compared with a loss of 58.87 million yuan in the same period last year.
Comment
Non-recurring profit and loss affects Q4 profit: according to the announcement, the company achieved a net profit of 245 million yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 87.02% over the same period last year, a decrease of 46.7% from a month earlier, and a net profit of 436 million yuan after deducting it, an increase of 7.12% over the previous year and 235.38% over the same period last year.
The volume and price of the main coke industry rose in the first quarter, and the performance was released: according to the announcement, the company's net profit in the first quarter was 5.5-750 million yuan, a year-on-year reversal of losses. On the one hand, due to the fading of the COVID-19 epidemic and the commissioning of Huasheng Chemical Industry, the company's output increased compared with the same period last year; on the other hand, due to the continued high coke prices in the first quarter, both volume and price rose, leading to the release of the company's performance.
Coke prices have bottomed out and rebounded: Coke prices have fallen continuously since late February. The Coal Resources Network shows that Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province and some coking plants in Hebei proposed the first round of increases last week and are still in a state of game. Under the pressure of environmental production restrictions, coke prices have bottomed out and rebounded, which is expected to support the company's performance in the second quarter. In addition, the company Huasheng Chemical Coke project has been put into production, the future output is expected to continue to achieve year-on-year growth.
The hydrogen energy business is making rapid progress. The company has set up the whole fuel cell industry chain from hydrogen source-refueling station-membrane electrode (Hongji Chuangeng)-stack (Guohong hydrogen energy)-whole vehicle (speeding car), and released heavy truck models at the end of last year. And the company's hydrogen energy industrial park has covered several major economic development areas, and has been supported by the local government. Including Qingdao (Bohai Bay region), Jiaxing (Yangtze River Delta region), Foshan, Guangzhou, Yunfu (Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area and its surrounding areas) and other cities, as well as Jinzhong City, inland Shanxi Province. According to Shanxi Capital Circle, on January 28, the Qingdao Meijin New Energy Commercial vehicle Manufacturing Center project, one of the three major projects of Qingdao Meijin Hydropower Science and Technology Park, was put into production in Qingdao West Coast New area, and the first hydrogen bus demonstration line in Qingdao was officially opened. In addition, the first fixed hydrogenation station in Qingdao, operated by Qingdao Meijin, has been put into operation with a hydrogenation capacity of 1000 kg / day. On March 31, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Road Motor vehicle production Enterprises and products (batch 342) notice", which was successfully approved by Qingdao Meijin New Energy Automobile Manufacturing Co., Ltd. The company's hydrogen energy business continues to expand and develops rapidly.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit from 2020 to 2022 will be 7.05 billion RMB 25.32 billion RMB respectively.
Considering the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the coke industry and the continuous development of the fuel cell vehicle industry in the future, the company's performance and cash flow are expected to improve continuously and steadily. Give a buy-An investment rating with a 6-month target price of 9.44 yuan.
Risk hint: the proportion of major shareholder pledge is high, the macroeconomic downturn leads to lower-than-expected coke demand, and the construction of hydrogen energy projects is not as expected.
