The net profit of homing in 2020 is + 45% compared with the same period last year, and the "buy" rating is maintained. CCI Energy released its results in 2020: revenue increased by 2% to 14.2 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 45% to 920 million yuan, slightly lower than Huatai's forecast (970 million yuan). 20Q4 has an income of 4.3 billion yuan (+ 14% compared with the same period last year) and a net profit of 100 million yuan (43% compared with the same period last year). The company's dividend yield in 2020 is 2.8%.
The company may face upward pressure on coal prices in 2021, but new consolidated high-quality assets are expected to contribute to the increase. By adjusting the profit forecast, it is estimated that the BPS for 2021-2023 will be 7.17 pounds 7.62 pounds, with a target price of 7.17 yuan per share and a 21-year 1.0xPB, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Electricity generation is declining and heating is growing, and fuel cost control is effective.
Electricity generation has declined, but unit utilization is better than the national average: in 2020, the company's controlled power generation fell 2 per cent year-on-year to 39.2 billion kilowatt hours, with an average utilization hours of 4671 hours, 455 hours higher than the national average of thermal power; electricity generation of participating companies fell 10 per cent year-on-year to 40.7 billion kilowatt hours. As the scale of heating expands, heat revenue makes up for the decline in electricity revenue: in 2020, the company's holding heat sales increased by 10% compared with the same period last year, and heat revenue increased by 7% compared with the same period last year. Fuel cost control has been effective: in 2020, the company's average comprehensive standard coal unit price decreased by 43.47 yuan / ton to 562.68 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, which is better than that of Q5500 (Q5500) of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) over the same period.
The contribution performance increment of high-quality interbank assets is expected to hedge against the impact of rising coal prices on the commissioning of Zunhua thermal power unit # 2 in 2020, and Qinre Company has become a holding subsidiary. We expect to add 1.3 billion yuan of electricity and heat income to the company in 2021. The company's holding generating sets are important power support of Hebei regional power grid, and all meet the deep emission reduction standards of Hebei Province (the main pollution emissions will not exceed 38% of the nuclear quota in 2020). With the rebound of social electricity demand, we expect the average utilization hours to rebound. Assuming that the contract power of each unit of the company in 2021 is the same as the same period last year (the actual data will have to wait for the announcement of the power generation plan of Hebei Power Grid), we expect the proportion of electricity in the market to increase by 4pct to 43% in 2021. From January to March of 2021, the average market price of Q5500 in Qingang rose 32% to 745 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, and we raised the average coal price forecast for 2021 from 550 yuan / ton to 610 yuan / ton.
Adjust the profit forecast, the target price is 7.17 yuan
The power generation rebounded, the heating expanded, the benefit of the shareholding power plant rebounded, and the profit forecast was adjusted taking into account the impact of rising coal prices. We estimate that the return net profit of the company in 2021-2023 will be 9.8 pound 11.3 billion yuan (prior to 21-22 years 1.01 billion / 1.03 billion yuan), and the current stock price corresponds to a PE of 11.2 pound 9.7 pound 8.4x PB and 0.85 pound 0.80 pound 0.75x. Reference comparable company 2021 wind consensus expected average PB of 1.0x.
As the leader of thermal power in Hebei region, electricity is expected to take the lead in recovery, cost control is prominent, and dividends are expected to rise steadily. Give the company 2021 1.0xPB (previous value: 0.95xPB), corresponding to the target price of 7.17 yuan (previous value 6.89 yuan), maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: coal price upward risk; electricity price downside risk; market electricity trading proportion increases.