Event Overview
On April 3, 2021, Beibu Gulf Port released throughput data for March. In March, the company completed cargo throughput of 21.855 million tons, an increase of 23.66% over the same period last year, of which container throughput was 444400 TEUs, an increase of 28.64% over the same period last year.
The cumulative Q1 cargo throughput of Beibuwan Port in 2021 is + 16.1% compared with the same period last year, which is still greatly increased on the basis of a high base throughput in the same period last year, and the growth logic continues to verify.
In 2021, the cargo throughput of Q1 Beibu Gulf Port was 61.916 million tons, + 16.1% compared with the same period last year, of which the container throughput was 1.264 million TEUs, + 36.8% compared with the same period last year. Although affected by the epidemic in the same period last year, the throughput of Beibu Gulf Port still increased rapidly. In 2020, the cargo throughput of Q1 was + 15% year-on-year, and the container throughput was + 26% year-on-year. In the same period, the year-on-year growth rates of cargo throughput and container throughput of ports nationwide were-4.6% and 8.5% respectively. We believe that the throughput of Q1 Beibu Gulf Port in 2021 will continue to grow rapidly on the basis of a high base in the same period last year, which further verifies the growth logic under the background of "three structural adjustments".
The Beibu Gulf Port Group has signed strategic cooperation agreements with the people's governments of Qinzhou City, Fangchenggang City and Beihai City respectively, and the regional port-city integration will be further developed, which we think is conducive to the growth of the cargo throughput of the Beibu Gulf Port.
According to the news released on the official account of Beibu Gulf Port Group, on April 1, 2021, the company's controlling shareholder, Beibu Gulf Port Group, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the people's Government of Qinzhou City. According to the strategic cooperation agreement, Beibu Gulf Port Group and Qinzhou will make every effort to build an international container trunk port around the new land and sea corridor in the west, so as to enhance the capacity of Qinzhou Port to serve the new land and sea channel in the west. We will expand the container source market in the hinterland of Qinzhou Port area and deepen cooperation in areas such as promoting the development of the energy industry.
On March 26, 2021, Beibuwan Port Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the people's Government of Fangchenggang City. After the signing of the strategic cooperation agreement, the two sides will give full play to the advantages of enterprises, strengthen strategic cooperation, deepen strategic mutual trust, jointly consolidate and enhance the function of Fangchenggang port in the international gateway port of Beibu Gulf, and jointly help Fangchenggang port industry to a new level, and promote the sound and sustainable development of enterprises and local economy.
On April 2, 2021, Beibuwan Port Group will sign a strategic cooperation agreement with the Beihai Municipal people's Government to speed up the construction of major port and shipping infrastructure, further improve the port collection and distribution system, strengthen and expand the port industry and cruise industry, and promote the sound and sustainable development of enterprises and local economies.
We believe that the signing of strategic agreements between the company's controlling shareholder Beigang Group and the people's policies of Qinzhou, Beihai and Fangchenggang is conducive to the integration and coordinated development of port and urban development. so as to promote the future economic development of the Beibu Gulf region and the growth of port cargo throughput.
Investment suggestion: we reiterate that we are optimistic about the long-term growth logic of Beibu Gulf Port under the background of "three structural adjustments", maintain the company's profit forecast for 2020-22, maintain the target price of 21.60 yuan per share, and reiterate "buy".
We maintain the profit forecast of the company's return net profit for 2020-22, which is 10.7 + 14.5 / 1.74 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS 0.65 + 0.89 + 1.07. According to the closing price of 10.36 / share on April 2, 2021, the corresponding PE for 2020-22 is 15.9 + 11.7 + 9.7 times. We reaffirm the company's target price of 21.6 yuan per share and reiterate its "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The macroeconomic environment may decline more than expected; the duration of the epidemic; the short-term announcement of the Beibu Gulf Port convertible bond conversion stock price has not yet been determined; in the short term, the company's per ton cargo income may fluctuate.