Lianhua supermarket (00980.HK): 2020 revenue year-on-year + 1.8% continue to pay attention to the effect of the transformation and upgrading of the company's business format.

中金公司 · Apr 1, 2021 00:00

2020 业绩符合我们预期

公司公布2020 业绩：收入263.31 亿元，同比增长1.8%；归母净利润-3.19 亿元，亏损幅度收窄，对应每股亏损0.29 元，基本符合我们预期。分半年度看，1H/2H 收入同比分别+4.1%/-0.6%。公司积极推进业态转型升级，实现收入同期正增长与净利端亏损收窄。

发展趋势

1、营收同比+1.8%，主要受益于上半年疫情期间迅速优化品类结构，保障民生商品供应并有效管控价格，吸引客流。分业态看：1）大型综合超市实现营收150.26 亿，同比+0.3%，同店下降5.82%，公司持续升级大型综超业态，以数字化运营带动线上渠道发展；2）超级市场实现营收95.72 亿元，同比+6.8%，同店增长4.0%，公司在打造社区生鲜超市基础上持续优化现有品类及品牌，致力于提升坪效；3）便利店营收15.77 亿元，同比-13.8%，同店下降0.41%，主因疫情闭店控本措施所致。展店方面，公司立足核心地域长三角，不断优化网点质量，全年大型综合超市门店净减少1 家；超级市场网点数净增加113 家，其中直营店净增加43 家，加盟店净增加70 家；便利店网点净减少272 家，我们预计便利店业态调整接近尾声。

2、盈利能力提升，亏损幅度收窄。毛利率微降0.2ppt 至13.4%，主因疫情期间毛利水平较低的生鲜及快消品销售占比提升所致。

费用端来看，销售费用率同比下降1.3ppt 至17.1%，主因疫情期间人事费用得到有效控制；管理费用率同比微升0.1ppt 至3.3%；其他经营开支同比上升0.7ppt 至1.2%，主因便利店及大型综超战略调整产生部分网点闭店损失。综合影响下，净亏损率同比收窄0.25ppt 至-1.2%，亏损有所收窄。

3、后续关注公司业态优化升级效果。1）数字化：继续推进组织变革和流程再造，推广合伙人制度，加强数字化运营；2）供应链：

一方面持续优化生鲜供应链，加强源头直采。另一方面提升核心品类自有品牌占比，形成差异化竞争；3）全域销售：推进全域品类管理，依托门店网点优势，提升到家服务体验，拓展社区团购等新业务领域。同时关注流量运营，加大会员服务力度，打造闭路生态圈。关注公司业务调整变革效果。

盈利预测与估值

维持2021 年归母净亏损0.90 亿元，引入2022 年归母净利润0.2亿元。当前股价对应2021/2022 年0.04/0.04 倍P/S。维持跑赢行业评级，维持目标价1.45 元，对应2021/2022 年0.05/0.05 倍P/S，较当前股价有24%的上行空间。

风险

行业竞争加剧；业态调整升级效果不及预期。

2020 performance is in line with our expectations

The company announced 2020 results: revenue 26.331 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year; return to the mother net profit of-319 million yuan, the range of loss narrowed, corresponding to a loss of 0.29 yuan per share, basically in line with our expectations. In half a year, 1H/2H revenue is + 4.1% and 0.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. The company actively promotes the transformation and upgrading of the business format, achieving positive income growth and narrowing net profit loss in the same period.

Development trend

1. Revenue is + 1.8% compared with the same period last year, mainly benefiting from the rapid optimization of category structure during the epidemic in the first half of the year, ensuring the supply of commodities for people's livelihood and effectively controlling prices, so as to attract passenger flow. In terms of business formats: 1) large-scale comprehensive supermarkets achieved revenue of 15.026 billion, year-on-year + 0.3%, same-store decreased 5.82%, the company continued to upgrade large-scale comprehensive business format, digital operation led the development of online channels; 2) supermarkets achieved revenue of 9.572 billion yuan, year-on-year + 6.8%, same-store growth of 4.0%, the company continues to optimize existing categories and brands on the basis of building community fresh supermarkets, and is committed to improving the efficiency of the floor. 3) the revenue of convenience stores was 1.577 billion yuan,-13.8% compared with the same period last year, and the same store decreased by 0.41%, mainly due to the epidemic situation. In terms of exhibition stores, based on the core region of the Yangtze River Delta, the company continues to optimize the quality of its outlets, resulting in a net decrease of 1 large-scale comprehensive supermarket stores throughout the year; a net increase of 113 supermarket outlets, including a net increase of 43 direct stores and a net increase of 70 franchise stores; a net decrease of 272 convenience store outlets, and we expect that the adjustment of convenience store format is coming to an end.

2. The profitability is improved and the loss is narrowed. The gross profit margin decreased slightly by 0.2 ppt to 13.4%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of fresh and fast consumer goods with low gross margin during the epidemic.

From the cost point of view, the sales expense rate decreased from 1.3ppt to 17.1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the effective control of personnel costs during the epidemic; the management expense rate slightly increased to 3.3% from the same period last year; and other operating expenses rose 0.7ppt to 1.2% from the same period last year, mainly due to the closure losses of some outlets due to the strategic adjustment of convenience stores and large-scale comprehensive supermarkets. Under the combined influence, the net loss rate narrowed 0.25ppt to-1.2% compared with the same period last year, and the loss narrowed somewhat.

3. Pay attention to the optimization and upgrading effect of the company's business format in the follow-up. 1) digitization: continue to promote organizational change and process reengineering, promote the partnership system, and strengthen digital operation; 2) supply chain:

On the one hand, we will continue to optimize the fresh supply chain and strengthen direct mining at the source. On the other hand, enhance the proportion of self-owned brands in core categories to form differentiated competition; 3) Global sales: promote global category management, rely on the advantages of store outlets, enhance home service experience, and expand new business areas such as community group buying. At the same time, pay attention to the flow operation, increase the intensity of membership services, and create a closed-circuit ecosystem. Pay attention to the effect of the company's business adjustment and change.

Profit forecast and valuation

Maintain a net loss of 90 million yuan in 2021 and introduce a net profit of 20 million yuan in 2022. The current share price corresponds to 0.04 times 2021 pound 0.04 pound S in 2022. Maintain the outperform industry rating and maintain the target price of 1.45 yuan, corresponding to 2021, 2022, 0.05, 0.05, Pmax S, which has 24% upside compared to the current stock price.

Risk

The competition in the industry intensifies; the effect of format adjustment and upgrading is not as good as expected.

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联华超市(00980.HK)：2020营收同比+1.8% 持续关注公司业态转型升级效果

Lianhua supermarket (00980.HK): 2020 revenue year-on-year + 1.8% continue to pay attention to the effect of the transformation and upgrading of the company's business format.

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