Aijian Group (600643): the transformation of trust main business remains to be seen.

中金公司 · Mar 31, 2021 00:00

投资建议

爱建集团2020 年营业总收入同比+15.1%至43.8 亿元，归母净利润同比+2.5%至13.5 亿元，低于我们预期4.1%、主因投资收益低于预期；报告期ROAE 同比-0.9ppt 至12.1%（公司口径）。我们下调目标价20%至7.86 元，并下调评级至中性。理由如下：

信托业转型压力仍存、严监管下民营金控面临考验。1）信托业为公司核心主业，2020 年爱建信托收入25.4 亿元、收入贡献达58%，净利润12.1 亿元、利润贡献达89%。而自资管新规实施以来，行业去通道进程下、信托业资产增长承压。据信托业协会数据，截至2020 年4 季度末，信托业整体信托资产规模为20.5 万亿元、已连续12 个季度下降。同时，信托业分化持续加剧，主动管理能力不足、风控能力欠佳、产品创设能力不足的非头部信托公司在回归主业的转型过程中面临更大压力。我们测算2019 年信托资产排名前10 位的头部信托公司平均资产规模增速为2%，而21-30 名和30 名后的信托公司资产规模增速为-12%/ -11%（2019 年爱建信托规模排名行业第43 位）；2）金控管理办法的出台意味着我国金控公司迎来牌照监管时代，严监管趋势下，公司合规经营、风险管理、协同和资源配置能力都将面临考验。

投资收益不确定性较大、或构成业绩增长潜在风险。2020 年，资本市场整体景气度向好背景下（沪深300 指数+27.2%、中债总净价（总值）指数小幅-0.42%、大宗商品指数上涨18.54%），公司投资业务收入（投资收益+公允价值变动损益）同比-79%至2.0 亿元，波动性较大、对业绩造成拖累。向前看，公司投资业务波动或对业绩增长构成不确定性。

疫情冲击下，租赁业务下滑明显、资产质量承压。2020 年，爱建租赁营业收入同比-29%至2.9 亿元、净利润同比-25%至5,968 万元。全年信用减值损失同比+76%至1.9 亿元，疫情期间资产质量有所承压。

我们与市场的最大不同？考虑监管环境趋严，我们预计公司信托主业中期转型成效仍存在不确定性。潜在催化剂：监管进一步收紧，资产质量恶化，项目投资不及预期。

盈利预测与估值

考虑严监管下信托业务转型承压及投资收益波动对公司业绩潜在影响，我们下调2021 年盈利3.3%至14.5 亿元，引入2022 年盈利15.3 亿元。公司当前交易于0.9x 2021e P/B，下调评级至中性，同时下调目标价20%至7.86 元，对应1.0x 2021e P/B 和9%上行空间。

风险

信托转型及资产质量超预期；投资收益超预期；政策利好超预期。

Investment suggestion

The total revenue of Aijian Group in 2020 was + 15.1% to 4.38 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was + 2.5% to 1.35 billion yuan, which was lower than our forecast of 4.1%. The main reason was that the investment income was lower than expected; ROAE in the reporting period was from-0.9ppt to 12.1% (company caliber). We lowered our target price by 20% to 7.86 yuan and downgraded to neutral. The reasons are as follows:

The pressure of the transformation of the trust industry still exists, and the private financial control is facing the test under strict supervision. 1) the trust industry is the core main business of the company. In 2020, the revenue of Aijian Trust reached 2.54 billion yuan, the income contributed 58%, the net profit reached 1.21 billion yuan, and the profit contributed 89%. Since the implementation of the new regulations on capital management, the industry goes to the channel process, and the trust industry asset growth is under pressure. According to the data of the Trust Industry Association, by the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the overall trust assets of the trust industry was 20.5 trillion yuan, which has declined for 12 consecutive quarters. At the same time, the differentiation of the trust industry continues to intensify, and the non-head trust companies with insufficient active management ability, poor risk control ability and insufficient product creation ability are facing greater pressure in the transformation process of returning to the main business. We estimate that the average asset size of the top 10 trust companies with trust assets will grow by 2% in 2019, while the assets of trust companies in the top 21-30 and after 30 will grow by-12% /-11% (Aijian Trust ranks 43rd in the industry in 2019) 2) the introduction of financial control management measures means that China's financial control companies have ushered in the era of license supervision. Under the trend of strict supervision, the company's compliance management, risk management, coordination and resource allocation capabilities will be tested.

The uncertainty of investment return is large, or it may constitute the potential risk of performance growth. In 2020, the overall prosperity of the capital market was better (the CSI 300 index + 27.2%, the total net price (total value) index of China bonds slightly-0.42%, and the commodity index rose 18.54%). The company's investment business income (investment income + fair value change profit and loss) is-79 to 200 million yuan compared with the same period last year, which is volatile and a drag on performance. Looking ahead, fluctuations in the company's investment business may pose uncertainty to performance growth.

Under the impact of the epidemic, the leasing business declined significantly and the asset quality was under pressure. In 2020, Aijian leasing operating income-29% to 290 million yuan, net profit-25% to 59.68 million yuan. Credit impairment losses for the whole year ranged from + 76% to 190 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and asset quality was under pressure during the epidemic.

What is the biggest difference between us and the market? Considering the stricter regulatory environment, we expect that there is still uncertainty about the effectiveness of the medium-term transformation of the main business of corporate trust. Potential catalysts: further tightening of regulation, deterioration of asset quality and lower-than-expected project investment.

Profit forecast and valuation

Considering the potential impact of the pressure on the transformation of the trust business and the fluctuation of investment income on the company's performance under strict supervision, we reduced the profit by 3.3% to 1.45 billion yuan in 2021 and introduced a profit of 1.53 billion yuan in 2022. The company is currently trading at 0.9 x 2021e Phammer B, downgraded to neutral, while lowering its target price by 20% to 7.86 yuan, corresponding to 1.0 x 2021e Phammer B and 9% upside space.

Risk

Trust transformation and asset quality exceed expectations; investment returns exceed expectations; policy benefits exceed expectations.

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爱建集团(600643)：信托主业转型有待观望

Aijian Group (600643): the transformation of trust main business remains to be seen.

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