Event description
In 2020, revenue reached 6.6 billion yuan (Note: all of this article is in RMB), an increase of 29.0% over the same period last year; net profit of 7.62 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year; net profit of 1.23 billion yuan of main business, an increase of 24.5% over the same period last year; gross profit margin of 33.2%, a decrease of 1.04pct over the same period last year.
Event comment
In 2020, the company's return net profit was 7.62 billion yuan, of which Anhui Conch Cement contributed investment income of about 6.39 billion yuan (an increase of 6.3 percent over the same period last year). After deducting, the main return net profit was about 1.23 billion yuan, an increase of 24.5 percent over the same period last year, thanks to the high increase in domestic waste disposal and solid waste disposal. Judging from the composition of gross profit, solid waste disposal increased by 41.9% to 770 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin decreased by 6.6pct, mainly due to the relatively low price of newly opened sludge hazardous waste and the reduction of industry prices affected by the epidemic last year. Garbage disposal increased by 22.6% year-on-year to 1.18 billion yuan (construction revenue increased by 23.1% to 4.09 billion yuan, and operating income increased by 116.3% to 560 million yuan), which was the main contribution to the high return net profit of the company.
Affected by the oil sludge business with low disposal fee, the increasing proportion of southwest business with low treatment price and the epidemic situation, the average price of hazardous waste disposal has decreased by 115yuan to 1892 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, and it is expected to improve in 2021, and the average price of solid waste disposal will be reduced by 25 yuan to 314 yuan / ton. 432000 tons of hazardous wastes entered the market in 2020 (the qualifications for putting hazardous wastes into operation at the end of 2019 and the end of 2020 were 106,133 million tons / year, respectively. It is estimated that the average utilization rate of quality in 2020 is about 36.2% (= 43.2 / [(106 / 133) / 2], affected by the epidemic.). The income of solid hazardous waste business was 1.15 billion yuan, an increase of 55.8% over the same period last year. The average disposal price is 1892 yuan / ton, down 115yuan from the same period last year. The core of the lower disposal price is that the southwest region with low price has a faster growth rate (+ 81.2%, excluding the average tax price of 1584 yuan / ton), the newly increased sludge business with lower disposal fee (46500 tons in 2020, excluding the average tax price of 1565 yuan / ton) and the reduction of disposal fee under the influence of the epidemic (the price in East China and Northwest China decreased more than the same period last year).
With the recovery of the economy in 2021, the price of hazardous waste is expected to bottom out and rebound, and the Yangchun project in Guangdong will be put into operation in August 2020. The price in Guangdong is on the high side, and the overall average price of the company may increase in the follow-up. 1.061 million tons of solid waste entered the market in 2020 (the qualification for the transportation of solid waste at the end of 2019 and the end of 2020 were 106,158 million tons / year, respectively. It is estimated that the average annualized utilization rate of solid waste in 2020 is about 80.4% (= 106.1 / [106 / 158) / 2]), and the capacity utilization rate is in a high position.
Grate furnace entry tons online upgrade 28kWh to 282kWh compared with the same period last year, and the construction progress has been accelerated. By the end of 2020, the grate furnace has been put into operation, and the new 5740t/d has been put into operation that year (+ 103.2%). Up to now, the manual production capacity has reached 338 million t / d. The entrance ton online has been upgraded from 28kWh to 282kWh, which is in the promotion channel.
The company is expected to make a net profit of 8.07 billion yuan (6.41 billion yuan investment income + 1.65 billion yuan main performance) and 8.51 billion yuan (6.41 billion yuan investment income + 2.1 billion yuan main performance) from 2021 to 2022, respectively, with a corresponding PE of 6.9x and 6.5x, respectively.
Risk hint
1. Hazardous waste prices continue to lower risk
two。 The project schedule is lower than the expected risk.