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中国科培(01890.HK):业绩稳健增长略超预期 收购淮北学校剩余55%股权有效增厚体量

China Science Education (01890.HK): Steady growth in performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the acquisition of the remaining 55% of Huaibei School's shares effectively increased volume

天風證券 ·  Mar 30, 2021 00:00

Revenue in 2020 was 867 million yuan, an increase of 21.4% over the same period last year. On March 29, the company released its annual report, with revenue of 867 million yuan over the past 20 years, an increase of 21.4% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 608 million yuan, an increase of 35.26% over the same period last year. The sharp increase in income is mainly due to the expansion of business and the expansion of enrollment of school students.

Specifically, according to the type of income, tuition income is still the core source. FY20 tuition income was 824 million yuan (95.05% of total income, year-on-year + 3.26pct), up 25.74% over the same period last year, of which undergraduate course income was 576 million yuan (66.46% of total income, year-on-year + 3.60pct), up 28.38% over the same period last year; college course income was 109 million yuan (15.87% of total income, year-on-year-3.29pct), down 3.76% from the same period last year. The income of adult university courses was 63 million yuan (5.90% of the total income, year-on-year + 1.33pct), an increase of 48.82% over the same period last year; 4 million yuan (0.59% of total income, year-on-year-0.12pct), a decrease of 2.21%; and secondary vocational education income of 72 million yuan (6.56% of total income, year-on-year + 1.74pct), an increase of 53.55% over the same period last year.

The cost of sales was 261 million yuan, an increase of 12.38% over the same period last year. The increase was mainly due to increases in staff costs, depreciation and amortization. Staff costs increased by $22 million or 21.3% from $103 million for the year ended 31 December 2019 to $125.2 million for the year ended 31 December 2020, mainly due to the increase in the number of teachers and the increase in salaries and benefits payable to teachers in the Group.

The gross profit margin was 69.88%, and the adjusted net profit increased by 35.26% over the same period last year to 608 million. Gross margin was 606 million, up 25.79% from the same period last year; gross profit margin was 69.88%, an increase of 2.42pct over the same period last year, and remained relatively stable compared with 2019.

The adjusted net profit was 608 million yuan, an increase of 35.26% over the same period last year, and the adjusted net interest rate was 70.11%, an increase of 7.21pct over 19 years.

The company has sufficient cash on paper, which can guarantee the acquisition of high-quality targets by the group in the future. The company's cash and cash equivalents will be 1.294 billion yuan in 2020. At the end of 2020, the company's asset-liability ratio was 16.6% (calculated on the basis of total interest-bearing bank loans divided by total equity at the end of the relevant financial year), an increase in 13pct over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in total group interest-bearing banks and other loans.

The total number of students enrolled in the company in the 2020 / 2021 academic year was 92624, an increase of 59.9% over the 2019 / 2020 school year. Specifically, the number of Guangdong Institute of Technology in the past 20 years was 73482, an increase of 46.0% over the same period last year.

Among them, the number of undergraduate students was 29262, up 22.8% from the same period last year; the number of college students was 6325, down 7.4% from the same period last year; the number of adult university courses in school was 7309, up 52.8% from the same period last year; and the number of off-campus adult university courses was 30586, an increase of 105.6% over the same period last year. The number of secondary vocational education students in Zhaoqing school was 8468, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year. The company entered into a sharing management agreement with Harbin College in March 2020, and as of December 31, 2020, Harbin College was not a comprehensive accounting subsidiary of the company. In 2020 / 2021, there are 9736 undergraduate students in Harbin College and 938 students in off-campus adult university courses.

Raise earnings forecasts and give buy ratings. The company is a leading private higher education operator in South China, focusing on professional education. In the 2020 to 2021 academic year, the total number of students in Guangdong Institute of Technology, Zhaoqing Science and Technology Secondary Vocational School and Harbin College run by the company is 92624.

With more than 20 years of experience in operating higher education institutions in China, the company is the leading private higher education service operator in South China in terms of the number of students. Considering the combination of Huaibei School and Harbin School in the future, we raise our profit forecast and estimate that the net profit of FY21-22 is 780 million and 950 million respectively, and the corresponding PE is 12xpe and 10xpe respectively.

Risk hint: the enrollment is not as expected, the price increase is not as expected, and the implementation regulations of the people's Promotion Law have not yet landed.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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