The net profit of homing increased by 21.1% in 2020, with full orders and orderly production capacity to achieve operating income of 664 million yuan / yoy-5.2%, net profit of 0.95 billion yuan / yoy+21.1%, net profit exceeding expectations (85 million). Deducting non-homing net profit of 0.56 million yuan / yoy-13.2%, non-recurrent income mainly resulted in 29 million yuan of disposal income from 20Q4's transfer of 15% stake in Hangzhou Leyin in Shanghai Shiguo.
The impact of the 20H2 epidemic has gradually weakened, the marginal fundamentals of the industry have improved, the company's orders are full, and capacity construction has been carried out in an orderly manner. We believe that after the change of the controller, the company is expected to rely on the support of Tao Wen Travel Group to develop logistics warehousing such as agricultural products / ceramic e-commerce, and integrate resources to create a "Nissan N" platform company. By increasing the 23-year profit forecast, it is estimated that the EPS for 21-23 will be 0.33Universe 0.45yuan (before 21-22 is 0.33Universe 0.38), and the PE will be as much as 24-21-18, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Comprehensive gross profit margin fluctuations in accounting caliber adjustment, abundant cash flow, operating soundly in 2020 the company to achieve comprehensive gross profit margin 24.1%/yoy-9.3 pct, is mainly cost accounting caliber adjustment, and project-related installation costs, transportation costs from sales expenses to operating costs, resulting in a year-on-year decline in comprehensive gross profit margin, the company's sales expense rate 4.82%/yoy-8.04 pct in 2020. In 2020, the company achieved operating net cash flow of 129 million yuan, from negative to positive, mainly due to the company's sales to increase the payback efforts, the effect is remarkable. The balance of accounts receivable at the end of December 20 decreased by 114 million yuan compared with the end of 19 years.
The company's newly signed orders are growing rapidly compared with the same period last year, and the construction of Maanshan base is smooth. In 2020, the company's new orders exceeded 1.1 billion yuan / yoy+56.09%. At the same time, the construction of the first phase of the Maanshan base has been completed, and some production lines have been put into use. After the completion of the project, it will have an annual output of 2000 sets of AGV/RGV shuttle vehicles, 150000 tons of high-precision shelves (1.6 times the company's existing capacity) and 1200 million square meters of plastic spray. In addition, the company plans to build a Thai factory and Jingdezhen intelligent logistics equipment industry project, the new base construction is expected to enable the company to break through the capacity bottleneck, under the background of strong demand, the company is expected to effectively expand the income scale and increase the market share.
Pay attention to the release of synergy of Tao Wen Brigade Holdings and the layout of smart factories in Thailand, maintain "overweight" rating companies with full orders, and capacity release is expected to effectively expand the scale of revenue. The company and Tao Wen Travel Group are expected to form a joint force to help the company steadily expand its business scope and scale. Yingfei's plan to build an intelligent factory in Thailand is expected to increase the company's production capacity and overseas influence. The new 23-year profit forecast shows that the net return profit for 21-23 years is estimated to be 1.00 pound 1.15 pound 1.36 million yuan (before 21-22 year value is 1.00 pound 115 million yuan), and the EPS 0.33 pound 0.38 pound 0.45 yuan (21-22 year ago value 0.33 pound 0.38 yuan), corresponding to PE 24x/21x/18x. With reference to the same kind of comparable company Wind unanimously expected the average value of PE valuation in 21 years 22x, considering that 1) the change of the company's real controller to the state-owned background is more conducive to business development, 2) the new production capacity is expected to be gradually released, giving 21PE 30x, the target price is 9.9 yuan (the previous value is 13.28 yuan), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, capacity expansion is slower than expected, industry competition intensifies, raw material prices fluctuate, order confirmation rhythm fluctuates, and real controller business coordination is less than expected.