Key elements of the report
The company issued a 20-year annual report, with annual revenue of 4.056 billion yuan, an increase of 97.15%, a net profit of 440 million yuan, an increase of 67.09%, and a non-return net profit of 422 million yuan. The proportion of the company's wafer business has increased from 18% in 19 years to 42%, and the wafer business is growing rapidly. We believe that market perception is expected to change, the company has changed from a power plant operator to a silicon wafer manufacturer, and its value is expected to be revalued.
Main points of investment:
Drag on the provision in the fourth quarter, and the results after deduction are in line with expectations: the company's Q4 net profit in a single quarter is 24 million yuan, which is lower than market expectations, mainly because the total provision for impairment of assets in the current period is 83 million yuan, of which 50 million is reduced in inventory, 15 million in fixed assets and 18 million in others. consider returning asset impairment of 30 million yuan, the impact of this provision on return net profit is about 50 million yuan. Excluding the impact of impairment, the company's overall performance is in line with expectations.
The wafer business is improving, and there is much room for improvement in the future: with the commissioning of Wuhai Phase I production capacity, the company's wafer business has greatly increased. In the past 20 years, the company has sold 1.018 billion wafers, an increase of 141%, and a wafer business income of 1.698 billion yuan, an increase of 206.16%. The annual gross profit margin is 18.53%. On a quarterly basis, we estimate that the Q1-Q4 gross profit margin is 7.51%, 14.81%, 20.07% and 25.18%, respectively. Due to the impact of capacity climbing and silicon wafer price reduction, Q1-Q3 's silicon wafer gross profit margin is not satisfactory. at present, Wuhai 7GW production capacity has completed climbing to achieve full production and full sales, superimposed silicon wafer price increase, we expect Q1 silicon wafer gross profit margin to be close to 35% in 21 years, annual gross profit margin is close to 30%, and silicon wafer revenue is expected to exceed 7 billion yuan.
High growth in the equipment sector, power plant business remains stable: the company achieved equipment revenue of 612 million yuan in the past 20 years, an 18-fold increase over the same period last year, mainly due to the gradual recognition of revenue from previous orders. The company 1400mm, 1600mm single crystal furnace have been shipped, photovoltaic equipment technology to maintain the market leading level. In 21 years, the company's silicon wafer production capacity has expanded significantly, single crystal furnaces are mainly self-supplied, and equipment revenue is expected to decline. The company currently has a total of 1.7GW power stations, of which photovoltaic 1.25GW and wind power 0.45GWPM have settled 1.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity over the past 20 years, achieving a power station business income of 1.223 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 56.69%. The company maintains the scale of the power station and expects the revenue of the power station to remain stable in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's 21-23 operating income is expected to be 93.75max 185.79max 21.358 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent is 11.58C2281max 2.899 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS0.48/0.94/1.2 yuan per share. Based on the company's leading position in the third-party silicon wafer supplier, the company maintains the buy rating, with a target price of 14.06 yuan per share.
Risk factors: the production speed of new capacity is not as fast as expected, the profitability of 210 silicon wafer is not as expected, the price of silicon wafer is not as expected, and the risk of technological change.
