Main points of investment:
Open up new business areas and jointly invest in PBAT project with Donghua Engineering Technology Co., Ltd.
According to the announcement of the PBAT project jointly invested by the company and Donghua Engineering Technology Co., Ltd., the company and Donghua Technology jointly invested in the establishment of China Chemical Donghua Tianye New Materials Co., Ltd., the construction and operation of the PBAT project, the first phase of the construction of 100,000 tons / year PBAT project. The registered capital of the project company is 200 million yuan, and the company subscribes 98 million yuan in cash, accounting for 49% of the registered capital. Donghua Science and Technology accounts for 102 million yuan in cash, and Donghua Science and Technology accounts for 51% of the registered capital. The overall plan of the project is 500,000 tons / year, the project plans to cover an area of about 150 mu, and the construction period is expected to be one year. The project company will give full play to the advantages of production experience, performance and management capabilities of the company and its controlling shareholders in calcium carbide, BDO, ethylene glycol, etc., as well as Donghua Technology's experience, performance and technical strength in engineering plant scale-up and contracting construction. Through the project company to undertake the construction and operation of PBAT projects, we will give full play to and gather their respective resources and advantages, so as to achieve complementary advantages and win-win cooperation. Open up new business areas for the healthy development of both sides and seek common development.
The average price of PVC paste resin since 2021 is 23750 yuan / ton, an increase of 160% over the same period last year. We believe that the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue. 1) according to the official account of Zhuochuang Plastics Wechat, China's PVC paste resin production capacity increased by 135000 tons in 2020, with a total capacity of 1.425 million tons, an increase of 10.47 percent over the same period last year.
2) with the continuation of the international epidemic, the demand for epidemic prevention supplies is exuberant, the demand for PVC glove products increases greatly, and the high-load production of glove manufacturers promotes the growth of demand for PVC paste resin. According to Baichuan Information, at present, glove products enterprises mainly return orders, start work to maintain a high level, and there is still some support for the demand for paste resin glove materials. We expect that the price of paste resin glove will remain strong for a long time.
The company has completed the acquisition of Tianneng Chemical Industry, and the industrial chain has been further improved. The company acquired 100% equity interest in Tianneng Chemical Industry on April 30, 2020. The scale advantage of the company's integrated circular economy industrial chain appeared, with a PVC capacity of 650000 tons, ionic membrane caustic soda capacity of 470000 tons, calcium carbide capacity of 1.34 million tons, as well as 2 × 300MW and 2 × 330MW thermal power plants and 2.05 million tons of calcium carbide slag cement production equipment. Form a complete "self-provided electric power" calcium carbide "PVC" calcium carbide slag cement "integrated circular economy industry chain linkage development model." With the consolidated accounting of Tianneng Chemical Industry, the scale of the company's assets has been greatly improved, the asset structure has been further optimized, and the company's performance level has been effectively improved. While enriching the variety of products of listed companies, it has played a synergistic effect and scale effect with the company's original industry, providing the company with future business growth points and effectively improving the company's ability to resist market risks.
Profit forecast and investment rating. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2020 to 2022 will be 0.61,0.95,1.14 yuan respectively. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies in the same industry, we think that the reasonable valuation multiple is 11-13 times PE in 2021, and the corresponding reasonable value range is 10.45-12.35 yuan, which is better than that of the big city.
Risk hint: the price of the product market fluctuates and the overall domestic economic growth rate is declining.
