Events. The company announces its annual report 2020. The company's operating income in 2020 was 1.088 billion yuan, an increase of 7.29% over the same period last year; the net profit returned to its mother was 133 million yuan, an increase of 45.37% over the same period last year; and the non-net profit was 125 million yuan, an increase of 41.98% over the same period last year.
The single-quarter operating income of Q4 in 2020 was 239 million yuan, down 30.46% from the same period last year; the net profit was 62 million yuan, an increase of 39.37% over the same period last year; and the non-net profit was 58 million yuan.
Viewpoint: outstanding performance in 2020, strong performance of paramivir injection, more interesting in 2021.
1. The profit side is bright; the revenue side is mainly due to the generic drug sector affected by the epidemic and collection in 2020, the performance of paramivir injection is still strong. Under the epidemic in 2020, the profit side of the company still achieved a growth rate of 45%, which is very impressive. The revenue end is mainly due to the generic drug sector affected by the epidemic and collection, the growth rate is not as fast as the profit end, but paramivir injection still achieved 54% growth under the epidemic, sales reached 800 million yuan, a strong performance. In the future, with the increasing proportion of paramivir injection, the influence of generic drug plate is gradually diminishing.
two。 The company holds the echelon of 1x innovation & consumer products, which is an undervalued target of high quality. according to our estimates, the market capitalization is expected to reach more than 20 billion.
Paramivir injection: after entering health insurance, it still showed a growth rate of 54% in 2020, when the epidemic was more serious, and it is expected to see sustained and rapid growth in the future.
Rabies McAb: China and the United States double newspaper international quality, both innovation + consumption attribute, 3-5 years only 2, 10 billion level market, peak sales are expected to reach 3-4 billion.
Paramivir inhalation solution: high barrier dosage form, is expected to become the world's first, attack the home drug market, suitable for influenza + influenza-like symptoms, standard kevir, peak sales are expected to reach 30-4 billion.
3. The company will see more in 2021. Based on clinical progress and terminal sales, it is speculated that:
Rabies McAb: phase III clinical enrollment completed in May, phase III clinical observation period ended in August, data was locked up, and approved in NDA;2022 at the end of the year.
Paramivir injection: under the epidemic in 2020, it will still achieve a growth rate of 54%. With the expansion of the grass-roots market and the gradual control of the epidemic in 2021, it is expected to continue to maintain a rapid growth trend.
Paramivir inhaled solution: it is expected to be reported for production in the second half of 2021 and approved in 2022.
Profit forecast and valuation. We adjusted our profit forecast according to the latest annual report. Leaving aside the merger table of Xingmeng Biology for the time being, we estimate that the operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.439 billion yuan, 2.004 billion yuan and 2.853 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 32.2%, 39.3% and 42.3% over the same period last year. The net profit of homing was 188 million yuan, 281 million yuan and 423 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding growth rates were 41.6%, 49.3% and 50.5%, respectively. The corresponding PE was 1.34,2.01,3.02 yuan, and the corresponding EPS was 29x, 20x and 13x respectively.
Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: product sales are less than expected risk; product research and development failure risk; industrial policy negative impact risk; major asset restructuring failure risk.