Investment points: private holding background, the mechanism is more flexible. Over the past 13 years, the company has returned to the main business of trust, the scale of trust has risen rapidly, and various rankings have risen rapidly. The company conforms to the development situation of the industry, actively promotes the transformation of business innovation, strives to make the active management bigger and stronger, and the trust return rate leads the industry. The reasonable value range is 5.16-5.54 yuan, maintaining the "better than the market" rating.
Event: Anxin Trust achieved operating income of 200 million yuan in 2018, down 96% from the same period last year; its mother lost 1.8 billion yuan in net profit and 3.7 billion yuan in 17 years. 19Q1 realized operating income of 500 million yuan,-67% of the same period last year, and net profit of 300 million yuan,-70% of the same period last year. By the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company's total assets were 30.7 billion yuan, down 3% from the beginning of the year; its net assets were 12.8 billion yuan, up 7% from the beginning of the year.
"emphasis on initiative, light on channel", and the proportion of active management remains high. In 2018, with the continued implementation of the deleveraging policy and strict restrictions on non-standard and channel business, the increment of social integration continued to decline. Despite the grim situation in the industry, the company has always adhered to the strategy of "emphasizing the initiative and neglecting the channel" and laid out ahead of time. By the end of 18, the scale of trust assets managed by the company was 233.7 billion yuan, + 0.5% year-on-year, of which active management accounted for 70%, and active management accounted for 62% of the 18 years. In 18 years, the net income of handling fee and commission is 1.5 billion yuan,-70% compared with the same period last year; the weighted annualized trust return rate is 0.65%. We speculate that the active trust return rate may be 0.8%, and the passive trust return rate 0.3%. In the first quarter of 1919, the commission and commission income was 150 million yuan,-92% compared with the same period last year.
In line with the national policy, the layout of new industries, industrial investment accounted for more than 50%. By constantly improving the capital strength and quality, the company promotes the development of trust business and steadily promotes the status of trust main business. In 2018, trust funds are mainly invested in industrial, real estate, basic industries and other fields. At the same time, we will deepen the adjustment of business structure and expand and distribute to many industries and fields such as biomedicine and port logistics. In 2018, 52.46% of the company's trust assets were invested in the industrial sector.
Inherent business: affected by the poor performance of the equity market, the investment business has lost more money in the past 18 years; over the past 19 years, the market has improved significantly and investment income has improved significantly. In 2018, the company achieved a net interest income of 10 million yuan, a decrease of 89% compared with the same period last year. At the end of 18, the balance of loans and advances was 14.8 billion yuan, and + 166% compared with the same period last year. The net interest loss in the first quarter of 1919 was 30 million yuan, while the net interest income in the same period last year was 70 million yuan. The 18-year investment income (including fair value) lost 1.347 billion yuan, and the 17-year profit was 187 million yuan. Mainly due to the poor performance of the equity market in 18 years, the CSI 300 index fell 25.31% for the whole year, and the gem index dropped 28.65%.
Profit forecast and valuation. We estimate that the company will achieve an operating income of 28.24max 23.02 / 2.402 billion yuan, which is + 1282% for the same period last year and + 1282% for the same period last year. The net profit of the company will be RMB 1.302 billion, which will turn into a profit of RMB 1.302 million and turn a profit from a loss to a profit of RMB 19.6%, 26% and 15% respectively over the same period last year, corresponding to EPS0.32/0.24/0.27 yuan. Using the comparable company valuation method, we give the company 16x Ppicket E and 2.2x Ppicket B in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 5.16-5.54 yuan, maintaining a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint: the problem of rigid payment is still difficult to solve; the external environment is grim; supervision is constantly upgrading.