According to the latest news on the official website of the people's Bank of China, the people's Bank of China held a forum on credit structure optimization and adjustment of 24 major banks in Beijing on March 22 to summarize and exchange experiences and practices, analyze and study the credit situation, and make arrangements to promote the optimization of the credit structure in the next stage.

The participants in this meeting can have a strong lineup. Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, attended and delivered a speech, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank, presided over the meeting, and Xiao Yuanxiang, vice chairman of the Banco Insurance Regulatory Commission, attended the meeting and made a speech. Responsible persons of relevant departments of the central bank and the CBIC, and responsible persons of policy and development banks, large state-owned commercial banks, and national joint-stock banks attended the meeting. In addition, at the forum, the Export-Import Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank Of China, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial Bank, and other financial institutions exchanged speeches on the main practices of optimizing and adjusting the credit structure in key areas.

Judging from the key areas of credit delivery this year deployed at this meeting, small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, green and low-carbon industries, and scientific and technological innovation will become hot areas of credit delivery in the banking industry this year. At the same time, real estate finance will continue to strengthen strict control. From the recent inspection and rectification efforts of the first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in view of the illegal inflow of individual loans into the property market, many analysts point out that The scale of new real estate loans is expected to decrease further this year.

Fully understand the necessity and urgency of continuously optimizing and adjusting the credit structure

The meeting reviewed the effect of monetary and credit policies last year. The meeting held that in 2020, in the face of the complex and severe domestic and foreign situation, especially the serious impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the financial system took the initiative to implement a prudent monetary policy and rationally arrange the total amount and rhythm of credit. We will implement the rediscount policy of 1.8 trillion yuan in an orderly manner, benefit the real economy of 1.5 trillion yuan, and fully support epidemic protection, the main body of the market and economic and social development. It provides a strong support for China to take the lead in controlling the epidemic situation, taking the lead in returning to work and production, and taking the lead in achieving positive economic growth.

In view of the current credit situation, the meeting pointed out that the current recovery of China's real economy is not yet solid, and the credit structure in key areas and weak links still needs to be adjusted and optimized.

It is worth noting that the meeting stressed that the financial system should improve its political position, unify its ideological understanding, base itself on the new development stage, implement the new development concept, build a new development pattern, and fully understand the necessity and urgency of continuously optimizing and adjusting the credit structure in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council.

Maintain steady loan growth

Judging from the arrangements for the next stage of optimizing the credit structure at the meeting, the main contents are highly consistent with the requirements of the government work report of this year's two sessions. The meeting stressed that in the next stage, the financial system should adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in the midst of stability, persist in dredging policy transmission by means of reform, and further enhance the ability and level of high-quality development of the service economy.

Specifically, on the one hand, grasp the word "stable". In terms of total amount, we should "stabilize the word first", maintain the steady growth of loans, be reasonable and moderate, and grasp the pace. We will maintain the continuity and stability of credit support policies for small and micro enterprises, strengthen the building of financial service capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, and achieve the continued "volume increase, price reduction and expansion" of inclusive small and micro loans. We will promote the financial system to continue to give reasonable profits to the real economy, and the comprehensive financing costs of small and micro enterprises have fallen steadily.

The executive meeting of the State Council held on March 24 made it clear that in order to maintain financial support for small and micro enterprises and ensure that financing for small and micro enterprises is more convenient and comprehensive financing costs fall steadily, the meeting decided that, on the basis of extending the implementation of the two direct monetary policy tools to the first quarter of this year, the implementation period will be further extended to the end of this year. Give better play to their important role in stabilizing employment.

First, for inclusive small and micro enterprise loans due before the end of 2021, enterprises and banks independently negotiate to postpone the repayment of principal and interest, and continue to give incentives to local corporate banks that handle deferred repayment of principal and interest, with an incentive ratio of 1% of the principal of the loan. Second, we will issue small and micro credit loans to qualified local corporate banks and continue to provide preferential financial support at 40% of the principal. At the same time, it is necessary to study and increase policy support for individual industrial and commercial households.

Private small and micro enterprises are the main force to absorb employment, to protect small and micro enterprises is to better achieve the policy goal of stable employment. Zheng Houcheng, director of the British University Securities Research Institute, told the Securities Times that in February, the manufacturing PMI of small enterprises continued to decline below the line of prosperity and decline. in addition, most of the detailed indicators of small enterprises were below the line of prosperity and decline. at the same time, the purchase price index of raw materials for small enterprises and the ex-factory price index continued to rise above the line, which shows that the operation of small and micro enterprises is still facing greater pressure.

At the same time, the unemployment rate in urban survey reached 5.50% in February, the highest level in nearly six months, and the government's expected target of "stepping on the line" shows that the employment pressure is still high, and small and micro enterprises are the main force to accommodate employment, so it is necessary to maintain financial support for small and micro enterprises.

According to Wang Yifeng, chief banking analyst at Everbright Securities, the bank still acts as the "head goose effect" of loans to small and micro enterprises in Pratt this year, and is expected to increase loans to small and micro enterprises by 1.45 trillion in 2021. Although this scale is 120 billion lower than the actual increment in 2020, the actual growth scale is still not low.

In terms of interest rates, Wang Yifeng said that since the beginning of this year, public lending rates have shown an upward inflection point, but retail lending rates are relatively stable. If the general loan interest rate does not increase significantly, then the loan interest rate for inclusive small and micro enterprises is mainly reflected by personal operating loans, which can maintain a stable state, so that the loan interest rate for inclusive small and micro enterprises does not go up.

More importantly, the government work report calls for a further reduction in real loan interest rates, which should be attributed more to promoting the openness and transparency of credit interest rates and fees, strictly standardizing the fees charged by financial institutions, and urging intermediaries to reduce fees and yield interests. reduce the comprehensive financing cost of the real economy through monetary policy tools directly to the real economy.

Since the second half of last year, house prices in some cities have risen significantly, and the property market has shown signs of overheating. This meeting once again stressed that we should adhere to the position of "houses are for living, not for speculation", maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies, and implement a sound real estate financial prudent management system. We will increase financial support for housing leasing.

Establishment of supporting tools for carbon emission reduction

Another deployment of the meeting to optimize the credit structure is to grasp the word "enter". The meeting proposed that in order to achieve the strategic goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, we should set up supporting tools for carbon emission reduction, guide commercial banks to increase their support for investment and financing activities of carbon emission reduction in accordance with the principle of marketization, and pry more financial resources towards green and low-carbon industries. Commercial banks should strictly implement green financial standards, innovate industries and services, strengthen information disclosure, and adjust the allocation of credit resources in a timely manner. We will further increase support for scientific and technological innovation and the manufacturing industry, increase the proportion of manufacturing loans, and increase credit for high-tech manufacturing industries.

Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said recently that there are many calculations on the need for capital to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, with a scale of 100 trillion yuan. With such a huge demand for funds, government funds can only cover a small part, and the gap has to be made up by market funds. Therefore, it is necessary to establish and improve the green financial policy system, guide and encourage the financial system to support green investment and financing activities in a market-oriented way.

This year, regulators will make a lot of new progress in promoting a green financial standards system and strengthening information disclosure. According to Yi Gang, the central bank is about to complete the revision of the catalogue of Green Bond support projects to delete the contents related to fossil energy. at the same time, it is working with the European side to promote the international convergence of green classification standards. strive for a set of common classification standards by the end of the year.

At present, green financial bonds in the interbank market have been required to disclose the use of raised funds on a quarterly basis, and financial institutions need to report the use and direction of green credit funds, which will promote the establishment of a mandatory information disclosure system on the basis of existing pilot projects, covering all kinds of financial institutions and financing entities, and unifying disclosure standards.

Take measures in line with local conditions to increase credit in provinces with economic difficulties

In addition, the meeting also asked to grasp the word "change". Adhere to the principles of marketization and the rule of law, and take a forward-looking and comprehensive consideration of factors such as capital investment, assets and liabilities, profits and risk indicators, so as to continuously enhance the capacity of financial service entities. Improve the business philosophy, enhance the level of financial science and technology, and strengthen the judgment of the real credit risk of enterprises. While managing risks, we should optimize internal assessment and incentive measures, increase credit in provinces with economic difficulties according to local conditions, and support coordinated regional development.

It is generally believed in the industry that the purpose of maintaining a sound monetary policy this year is to maintain a balance between stable growth and risk prevention. Wang Yifeng said that for the financial risk in the next stage, we need to focus on three areas: first, the financing channels of weakly qualified real estate enterprises are narrowed, and the cash flow pressure is increased; second, the differentiation of regional credit risk is intensified. Third, the overcapacity industry faces certain liquidity risk, for example, although the asset-liability ratio of some upstream industries such as extractive, steel, chemical, non-ferrous and so on has declined, the short-term debt ratio is significantly higher than other industries, facing a certain liquidity risk.

Sun Binbin, chief fixed income analyst at Tianfeng Securities, said that with the changes in the epidemic and economic recovery, the policy focus in 2021 is generally focused on risk prevention, and areas with outstanding economic and financial problems at present, such as real estate finance and high-risk shadow banking business, will adopt macro-prudential management to deal with. This year, macro-control may follow two legs: first, strict macro-prudential management, mainly responsible for risk prevention; second, the traditional aggregate tools are sound, mainly responsible for continuing to support economic recovery.