Events:
The company plans to invest in the construction of Fenglin wood industry production base, with a total investment of 1.558 billion yuan. The first phase of the project invests 886 million yuan to build an annual production line of 500000 cubic meters of super particleboard and its supporting facilities; the second phase of the project invests 672 million yuan to build an annual output of 250000 cubic meters of ultra-thin fibreboard production line and its supporting facilities, and an annual output of 14 million square meters of decorative wood-based board production line and its supporting facilities.
Comments:
Make rational use of forest resources and grasp the first-mover advantage of low-carbon development. The company has rich woodland resources, and is increasing the distribution of forest resources. at present, it has more than 200,000 mu of property right woodland, and operates about 200000 mu of woodland in Guangxi through leasing and cooperation. at the same time, the company established New Zealand Fenglin supply chain Co., Ltd. in February 2020 to carry out import and export business such as cross-border log trade to promote the implementation of the company's overseas timber resources reserve and domestic port-adjacent wood processing strategy.
At present, the central government is vigorously promoting the carbon neutralization policy, in which forestry carbon sequestration is the most important and effective carbon sequestration. Through the advance layout of forest resources, the company is expected to occupy a favorable position in the future development model of China's low-carbon economy.
Vigorously promote the port industry strategy and reduce logistics costs. The proposed project is located in Wujia Industrial Park, Hepu Industrial Park, Beihai City, Guangxi. It is rich in woodland resources and shipping resources, which will help to reduce the company's costs and improve profitability.
The demand for customized furniture in the lower reaches is growing rapidly, and the demand for formaldehyde-free panels breaks out rapidly. Since the second half of 2020, the delayed demand for home improvement in the first half of the year has led to a high growth in sales of customized furniture downstream of the company. With the improvement of people's pursuit of furniture quality, the industry concentration of domestic head-customized household enterprises will continue to increase, and consumers' demand for environmentally friendly products will break out rapidly, which makes the sales of formaldehyde-free panels grow rapidly. In 2020, the company actively grasped the rise of home health demand in the post-epidemic period, increased the supply of differentiated, high value-added and environmentally friendly plates, and the sales of formaldehyde-free plates increased by 85% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the company has increased its direct sales efforts to large-scale customized household enterprises such as Europe, Sofia and Shangpin, and the proportion of direct sales has further increased. It is expected that the company's revenue will continue to maintain high growth in 2021.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the EPS from 2020 to 2022 will be 0.16 / 0.21 / 0.25 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE will be 22.6 / 17.2 / 14.3x. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected, real estate regulation is higher than expected.