Main points of investment:
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially released the "double points" method, the development of new energy vehicles to meet deterministic support, 2020 production is expected to reach at least 2 million vehicles. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the measures for parallel Management of average fuel consumption of passenger vehicle Enterprises and points of New Energy vehicles. Passenger vehicle enterprises that produce or import more than 30,000 traditional energy passenger vehicles annually will set the integral ratio requirements for new energy vehicles. It is clear that the average fuel consumption (CAFC) will be assessed since 2018, and the new energy vehicle credits (NEV) will be assessed since 2019. The negative NEV points in 2019 can be deducted from the positive ones in 2020. Compared with the "opinion draft", the details are fine-tuned and the overall goal remains unchanged, fully ensuring the high-speed development of new energy vehicles. With reference to the Roadmap of Energy Saving and New Energy vehicle Technology, the annual sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 2 million by 2020. In the long run, the sales of new energy vehicles have broad room for growth: in 2016, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China is only about 500000 (a total of about 28 million), and the number of new energy vehicles is only about 1 million (the total number of new energy vehicles is close to 200 million).
With the advance of large-scale commercial use of 5G, the golden era of vehicle networking is coming. With the brand-new network architecture, 5G provides peak value above 10Gbps, the user experience rate will reach 1Gbps, and the network performance is more than 10 times higher than that of 4G. The characteristics of ultra-high reliability and ultra-low delay fundamentally improve the efficiency of vehicle networking communication. China Mobile Limited invested 800 billion to establish the 5G network has entered the commercial countdown, large-scale commercial will be advanced to 2019, and car networking is precisely 5G killer application scenario, 5G commercial ahead of time will promote the development process of vehicle networking.
The company has a comprehensive layout of the vehicle networking industry chain, and the new energy vehicle networking entrance has significant advantages, which is expected to create a new energy vehicle networking platform leader. The company has a comprehensive layout of the car networking industry chain, holding InTester (more than 30% share of T-BOX new energy vehicle front market), holding Ninth five-year Plan Smart car (independent research and development vehicle network operation TSP service), Guangzhou Lian Saxun (smart vehicle terminal) and Rainbow Wireless (UBI car insurance), adding an additional 1.46 billion yuan to build T-BOX production capacity and expand the scale of smart car operation. The company has a very significant value at the entrance of the T-BOX vehicle networking terminal of new energy vehicles, actively building a national three-level monitoring system for new energy vehicles (enterprise monitoring platform, local monitoring platform and national monitoring platform), and is expected to create a brand-new new energy vehicle networking platform leader. After considering the completion of the implementation of the fixed increase and the comprehensive calculation of Intel in 2018, the net profit of Xingmin Zhitong from 2018 to 2020 is expected to be 159 million yuan, 209 million yuan and 525 million yuan, respectively, and the three-year CAGR is nearly 81%. The company is expected to have high growth.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: based on the principle of prudence, regardless of the dilution of equity and the impact on performance when the non-public offering is not finally completed, and regardless of the factors affecting the performance of 49% equity in INTester in 2018, it is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2017 and 2019 will be 0.17, 0.23 and 0.33 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 0.17, 0.23 and 0.33, respectively, in 2018 and 2019, and the corresponding PE will be 0.33 yuan and 0.33 times respectively in 2018 and 2019. Under the two major trends of the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry and the advent of the 5G vehicle networking era, the company creates the data entry advantage of vehicle networking, builds the ecology of vehicle networking platform, is optimistic about the development of the company, and maintains the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the penetration rate of T-box products is lower than expected; the development progress of car networking is lower than expected, the non-public offering cannot be successfully completed, and the remaining 49% of Intel's equity acquisition progress is lower than expected.
