Cofco Packaging (00906.HK): 28.9% increase in net profit in 2020 follow-up follow-up two-piece can orders and raw material price trend

中金公司 · Mar 24, 2021 00:00

2020 年业绩超过我们预期

公司公布2020 年业绩：全年实现收入73.45 亿元人民币，同比增长0.8%，归母净利润3.89 亿元人民币，同比增长28.9%，受益下半年下游需求释放，业绩好于我们预期。其中1H/2H20 公司营收同比分别-8.3%/+10.0%，净利润同比分别增长7.4%/56.6%。此外，公司宣布每股派期末股息0.092 元人民币及期末特别股息0.056 人民币。

发展趋势

1、下半年营收环比改善，全年业绩稳中有增，但两片罐业绩下滑。

公司2H20 营收同比上升10.0%，环比上升17.5%，缓解上半年疫情影响，全年营收稳中略增0.8%。分产品看：1）全年铝制包装营收下降6.1%至31.07 亿元，主因下游一季度受疫情冲击严重，二季度后表现稳定良好；2）马口铁包装营收增长8.0%至36.60 亿元，其中部分产品为日常刚需，需求稳定，如奶粉罐同比增15.1%，疫情催化下部分产品需求强劲，气雾罐同比增25.5%；3）塑料包装营收略有下降，同减1.8%至5.78 亿元，但较上半年有所恢复。

2、盈利能力持续提升。2020 年公司毛利率实现15.8%，同比上升0.8ppt，分业务看：铝制/马口铁/塑料包装毛利率分别同比+0.6ppt/+0.5ppt/+3.8ppt 至17.1%/14.5%/17.2%，我们认为主因原材料价格位于低位，且公司降本增效措施有力。销售/管理费用率同比提升0.1ppt/0.3ppt 至4.4%/4.6%，财务费用率同减0.5ppt 至1.3%，主因资金综合成本下降。得益于毛利率提升及财务费用下降，公司净利率实现5.3%，同比提升1.2ppt，盈利能力改善。

3、后续重点跟踪两片罐业务订单情况与原材料价格走势。在啤酒罐化率提升、碳酸饮料对新罐型加大推广的驱动下，伴随2020 年疫情加速行业整合，预计未来公司将凭借规模化生产与供应链优势持续增长。2020 年，公司在产品端把握高端化、差异化、品质化趋势，客户端与百威、雪花、可口可乐、加多宝等现有客户深化合作，并积极开拓新客户机会，有望加速抢占两片罐市场份额，但近期原材料价格上涨可能影响公司盈利能力。建议后续重点跟踪公司两片罐业务订单情况及价格走势。

盈利预测与估值

考虑两片罐需求端放量，上调2021 年每股盈利预测7.0%至0.32元人民币，同时引入2022 年每股盈利预测0.36 元人民币。当前股价对应2021/2022 年11.0 倍/10.0 倍市盈率。

维持中性评级，基于公司盈利预测调整及市场风格转变，上调目标价18.6%至3.95 港元，对应10.5 倍2021 年市盈率和9.5 倍2022年市盈率，较当前股价有4.4%下行空间。

风险

原材料价格大幅波动，核心客户订单波动。

The performance in 2020 exceeded our expectations

The company announced its 2020 results: the annual income was 7.345 billion yuan, an increase of 0.8% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 389 million yuan, an increase of 28.9% over the same period last year. Of these, 1H/2H20 's revenue increased by-8.3% compared with the same period last year, while net profit increased by 7.4% and 56.6% respectively. In addition, the company announced a final dividend of RMB 0.092 per share and a special dividend of RMB 0.056 per share.

Trend of development

1. Revenue improved month-on-month in the second half of the year, and the annual performance increased steadily, but the performance of the two cans declined.

The company's 2H20 revenue rose 10.0% year-on-year and 17.5% month-on-month, mitigating the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, with a slight increase of 0.8% in revenue for the whole year. In terms of products: 1) the revenue of aluminum packaging decreased by 6.1% to 3.107 billion yuan in the whole year, mainly because the downstream was seriously affected by the epidemic in the first quarter and performed stably after the second quarter; 2) the revenue from tinplate packaging increased by 8.0% to 3.66 billion yuan, some of the products were daily rigid demand, and the demand was stable, such as milk powder cans increased by 15.1% year on year, strong demand for some products catalyzed by the epidemic, and aerosol cans increased by 25.5% compared with the same period last year. 3) the revenue from plastic packaging decreased slightly, by 1.8% to 578 million yuan, but recovered from the first half of the year.

2. Profitability continues to improve. In 2020, the company's gross profit margin reached 15.8%, an increase of 0.8ppt over the same period last year. In terms of business, the gross profit margin of aluminum / tinplate / plastic packaging was + 0.6ppt/+0.5ppt/+3.8ppt to 17.1% and 14.5%, respectively. 17.2%. We think that the main reason is that the price of raw materials is low, and the company has taken effective measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The sales / management expense rate increased to 4.4% 0.1ppt/0.3ppt 4.6% compared with the same period last year, while the financial expense rate also decreased to 1.3%, mainly due to the decline in the comprehensive cost of capital. Thanks to the increase in gross profit margin and the decline in financial expenses, the company's net profit margin reached 5.3%, an increase in 1.2ppt compared with the same period last year, and improved profitability.

3. Focus on tracking the business orders of the two cans and the price trend of raw materials. Driven by the increase in the canning rate of beer and the promotion of new cans by carbonated drinks, with the 2020 epidemic accelerating industry integration, the company is expected to continue to grow with the advantages of large-scale production and supply chain in the future. In 2020, the company will grasp the trend of high-end, differentiation and quality on the product side, and the client will deepen cooperation with Budweiser, Snow Flower, Coca-Cola Company, Jiadobao and other existing customers, and actively explore new customer opportunities, which is expected to accelerate to seize the market share of the two cans, but the recent rise in raw material prices may affect the company's profitability. It is suggested that we should focus on tracking the order situation and price trend of the company's two-piece can business.

Profit forecast and valuation

Considering the demand volume of the two-piece cans, the earnings per share forecast for 2021 will be raised by 7.0% to 0.32 yuan, and the 2022 earnings forecast per share will be introduced to 0.36 yuan. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 times 2022 / 10.0 times 2022.

Maintain the neutral rating and raise the target price by 18.6% to HK $3.95 based on the company's earnings forecast adjustment and the change in market style, corresponding to 10.5 times 2021 price-to-earnings ratio and 9.5 times 2022 price-to-earnings ratio, which is 4.4% lower than the current share price.

Risk

The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly, and the orders of core customers fluctuate.

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中粮包装(00906.HK)：2020年净利润增28.9% 后续关注两片罐订单与原材料价格走势

Cofco Packaging (00906.HK): 28.9% increase in net profit in 2020 follow-up follow-up two-piece can orders and raw material price trend

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