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美股前瞻 | 基金大佬警告:美股或将暴跌35%;美联储卡普兰:不支持用货币政策来影响收益率曲线

US stock outlook | Fund bosses warn that US stocks may plummet 35%; Federal Reserve Kaplan: Does not support monetary policy to influence yield curves

富途資訊 ·  Mar 23, 2021 20:52

Global macro

  • Federal Reserve Kaplan: us bond yield is expected to rise to 1.75% Mel 2%, does not support the use of monetary policy to influence the yield curve

Fed member Kaplan told the CNBC: monetary policy is not supported to influence the yield curve and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries is expected to rise further to 1.75 per cent. 2 per cent.

As a member of the Federal Reserve advocating an interest rate hike in 2022, Kaplan also expects the Fed to start raising interest rates in 2022. He also said that due to the supply problem, prices will rise sharply this year, the supply problem will be solved next year, and inflation will be more stable in 2022.

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  • Fund bosses warn: us stocks may plunge 35%, and the US stock market is likely to provide only negative returns in the next decade

Husman, president of Hussman Investment Trust, saidThe bubble characteristics of the US stock market have been fully demonstrated.Although he is known as a bear, he has accurately predicted two crashes in 2000 and 2008. This is highly consistent with the eve of the 1929 and 2000 crashes, and the US stock market over the next decade is likely to be doomed to provide only negative returns. "

Hussman also pointed out thatMany indicators show that current U. S. stock valuations are already extreme.For example, the average price-to-sales ratio of stocks in the S & P 500 has reached its highest level in nearly 40 years, and there is a clear correlation between high valuations and negative returns.He believes that the S & P 500 is already in "a bubble about to burst" and will soon be hit by selling pressure. Speculation is that the market will soon be in freefall, perhaps by 25% to 35% in a short period of time.

  • Fidelity Investment: 2% will be the upper limit of US bond yields, and there will be no repeat of the shrinking panic.

The global macro head of Fidelity Investment Group said on Tuesday that the yield on 10-year US Treasuries could rise slightly further, but that might not pose a risk to financial markets. "I think yields are likely to rise slightly. So far, they have reached 1.75%. I have a simple bond model that shows that 2% should be the upper limit. "

On Thursday, the yield on 10-year treasury bonds rose above 1.7%, the highest level in more than a year. Although the Fed has pledged that it has no plans to raise interest rates in the short term, nor does it intend to slow its bond-buying program.

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  • Yellen expects the US economy to resume growth and is expected to achieve full employment next year.

Treasury Secretary Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. According to a speech by Yellen, she will tell US lawmakers that as a result of President Joe Biden's COVID-19 stimulus package, Americans will enjoy economic growth on the other side of the novel coronavirus pandemic and may achieve full employment by 2022.

  • Before trading, the futures of the three major stock indexes of the United States were mixed.

Before trading, US stock index futures were mixed, with only Na index futures up 0.08 per cent. Markets are waiting for speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen at the hearing.

  • European stock markets generally fell.

Hot news

  • Li Auto Inc.: the cancelled models have been suspended, and the purchase tax-free models sold in the market will not be affected.

Before the plate$Li Auto Inc. (LI.US) $At one point, the decline was more than 5%, and the decline as of press time narrowed to 3.43%. Today, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a list of models of new energy vehicles that are proposed to abolish the catalogue of new energy vehicles exempt from vehicle purchase tax, including the ideal ONE LXA6500SHEVM1 model.

In this regard, the ideal response said that the cancellation of vehicle purchase tax exemption models have been suspended, the market sale of tax-free models will not be affected.

  • Bilibili Inc.: the final offering price of Hong Kong shares is set at HK $808.00 per share and will be listed in Hong Kong on March 29th.

$Bilibili Inc. (BILI.US) $According to a notice issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the final offering price (the "issue price") of both the international offering and the Hong Kong public offering has been determined at HK $808.00 per offer share. Subject to the approval of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Class Z ordinary shares of the Company are expected to commence trading on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the stock code "9626" on Monday, 29 March 2021.

Before trading, station B was down 1.59%.

  • Baidu, Inc. fell nearly 3% before trading, and his Hong Kong shares were once broken on the first day of listing.

$Baidu, Inc. (BIDU.US) $Us stocks fell 2.75% before trading, and their Hong Kong shares broke on their first day of trading. By the end of the day, they were in line with the offering price at HK $252.

Robin Li, chairman and CEO of Baidu, Inc., delivered a speech in Beijing today. In his speech at the scene, he said that facing the future, the company will explore in the no man's land of artificial intelligence, and many businesses can only be achieved by innovation. Returning to the secondary listing in Hong Kong is Baidu, Inc. 's second departure and Baidu, Inc. 's second venture.

  • Musk: in the long run, China will be our biggest market.

Recently$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $CEO Musk said in an interview with CCTV that China's economy will improve in the next decade. It is also committed to achieving a future characterized by sustainable energy. We produce cars, and in the long run, China will be our largest market, the place where we produce the most vehicles and have the most customers.

  • Wall Street analyst: electric cars are expected to push Apple Inc's market capitalization to $3 trillion

According to foreign media reports, it has been rumored for a long time$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $As for self-driving electric cars, it is now generally believed that it is no longer a question of whether Apple Inc will launch, but when Apple Inc will launch.

Wall Street analysts also have high expectations for the rumored Apple Inc car. Some analysts estimate that if Apple Inc enters the auto market, succeeds in mass production and proves profitable, their market capitalization is expected to reach 3 trillion US dollars.

  • HUYA Inc.: the total income in 2020 was 10.914 billion yuan, an increase of 30.3% over the same period last year.

According to the financial report, in the fourth quarter of 2020$HUYA Inc. (HUYA.US) $The total income was 2.99 billion yuan, an increase of 21.2% over the same period last year, and the total income for the whole year of 2020 was 10.914 billion yuan, an increase of 30.3% over the same period last year. Under non-US GAAP, net profit attributed to HUYA Inc. was 306 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2020, up 26.5 per cent from a year earlier.

  • DouYu International Holdings Limited: the total revenue in 2020 was 9.6 billion yuan, an increase of 31.8% over the same period last year.

According to the financial report, in 2020$DouYu International Holdings Limited (DOYU.US) $Total revenue was 9.6 billion yuan, an increase of 31.8% over the same period last year. Under non-US GAAP, DouYu International Holdings Limited's annual net profit was 540 million yuan, an increase of 56.3% over the same period last year, and the net interest rate was 5.6%.

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  • National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases: AstraZeneca PLC Vaccine data may be out of date

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) issued a statement on Tuesday.$AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.US) $Outdated information about its COVID-19 vaccine trial may have been released, resulting in "incomplete" views on the efficacy of the vaccine. However, the agency did not elaborate further on this.

Before trading, AstraZeneca PLC was down 2.46 per cent.

  • Oracle Corp announced the issuance of an additional $15 billion of bonds, which was downgraded by Fitch and Moody's Corporation

$Oracle Corp (ORCL.US) $Announced an additional $15 billion bond issue, the second largest bond issue this year. Credit rating Fitch immediately downgraded Oracle Corp one level to BBB+, that the bond issue did not meet the original expectations of debt reduction. Moody's Corporation downgraded two notches to Baa2.

Oracle Corp plans to use the proceeds to redeem bonds maturing this year and next, and the remaining funds will be used for share buybacks, dividends, debt repayment, future acquisitions and general operating purposes.

Edit / Phoebe

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