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金岭矿业(000655):20年归母净利+28% 看好21年表现

Jinling Mining (000655): 20 years' return net profit + 28% optimistic about 21 years' performance

華泰證券 ·  Mar 22, 2021 00:00

20-year net profit increased 28.3% compared with the same period last year or continued to improve for 21 years. On March 19, the company released its 2020 annual report, with annual revenue of 1.43 billion yuan (yoy+7.4%) and net profit of 230 million yuan (yoy+28.3%). Among them, Q4 realized revenue of 420 million yuan (yoy+32.0%,qoq+2.7%) and net profit of 23 million yuan (yoy+318.1%,qoq-72.0%), which was mainly due to the cost of + 41%. We believe that the company may benefit from the tight balance between iron ore supply and demand in the past 21 years and the continued improvement in iron ore prices. The company's 20-year dividend rate is 25.8%, the first dividend in 14 years, and the dividend yield is 1.3%. We estimate that the company's EPS for 21-22 years is 0.93 EPS 1.24 yuan respectively, and the 23-year EPS is 1.32 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

The 20-year gross profit margin of iron concentrate fans reached 34%, an increase in 9.2pct compared with the same period last year.

According to the company's annual report, the production and sales of iron concentrate in the past 20 years are all 1.21 million tons (yoy-4.1%,-5.3%), which is lower than the same period last year or mainly because the proved ore reserves of Houzhuang Mine have been mined and entered the stage of facility recovery and filling treatment. The price of iron concentrate powder is 860 yuan / ton (yoy+11.3%), while the price of Australian PB powder rose 12.7% over the same period last year, which is basically the same; the cost is 567 yuan / ton (the transportation cost is adjusted to the cost in the yoy-2.3%,20 annual sales fee, so it is similar to the transportation cost in mid-19 years, the same below), slightly lower than the same period last year, or due to high cost Houzhuang mine shutdown and actively carrying out cost reduction to increase efficiency. Gross margin 293 yuan / ton (yoy+52.6%), gross margin 34.0% (yoy+9.2pct).

The 20-year cash dividend rate is 25.8%, which is the first dividend in 14 years. The 20-year gross profit margin of the company is 28.3% (yoy+4.1%). The current sales / management / R & D / financial expenses are-87.0%, + 27.9%, + 5.6% and-53.3% respectively compared with the same period last year. The expense rate during the period was 10.9% (yoy+1.4pct), which was mainly due to the higher salary of personnel in administrative expenses, and the net sales interest rate was 16.2% (yoy+2.7pct).

In addition, according to the company's annual report, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 1 yuan per share in 20 years, with a cash dividend rate of 25.8% and a dividend yield of 1.3% (3.19-day closing price), which is the first dividend in 14 years.

Iron ore prices remain strong, maintaining the "overweight" rating

According to the report "Economic recovery, optimistic about raw materials and high-end steel" (20.11.16), we believe that iron ore supply and demand is in a tight balance in 21 years, and prices may improve. According to the announcement (2021-007), affected by the provincial safety inspection, subsidiary Jinzhao Mining temporarily suspended production, the company said it expected to have no impact on production plans. We raise the iron ore price hypothesis, and it is estimated that the company's EPS for 21-22 years will be 0.93 yuan 1.24 yuan (the previous value is 0.40 yuan 0.40 yuan), and the EPS for 23 years will be 1.32 yuan. Comparable company has a PB of 2.74x in 21 years (Wind and Bloomberg have the same expectation), the size of the company is smaller than the four major mines and there is no room for capacity expansion, giving the company 1.6x PB,BPS (21E) of RMB5.54in 21 years, with a target price of RMB8.87RMB (the previous value is RMB8.25RMB), maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk hint: macroeconomic is not as good as expected; iron ore supply increment is higher than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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