Tianli Education (01773.HK) 2020 Report Review: Revenue +42%, adjusted net profit +44%, new schools are expanding rapidly from other locations

東吳證券 · Mar 20, 2021 00:00

业绩简评

2020 年公司收入12.98 亿元，同比+41.5%，经调整净利润3.81 亿元，同比+43.7%，业绩略超预期。公司2020 年实现营收12.98 亿元，同比+41.5%，经调整净利润3.81 亿元，同比+43.7%。拟期末每股分红6.27分，以最近收盘价计股息率为7.2%。公司业绩大幅增长主要得益于新开学校数量大，在校生人数的增长以及部分学校上调学费所带动。

高升学率，高口碑持续带动毛利率和销售费用率的改善：2020 年公司毛利率43.3%，同比+2.3 pct；天立旗下学校一直以来都保持极高的升学率，2020 年高中毕业班本科率达到96.3%，一本率达到75.5%，远超四川省和全国的平均水平，得益于公司的高升学率和良好口碑，公司的销售费用率进一步改善，2020 年销售费用率仅2.2%，同比改善0.4 pct，管理费用率因新建学校略有增长，从2019 年的9.9%提至2020 年11.3%，但相比于公司15-18 年仍处于较低水平。

全国已有32 所学校，在校生人数大幅增长已达到5 万+，异地扩张已初具规模。近年来公司保持了高速扩张的态势，K12 学段学校数从2017年12 所增加到2020 年的32 所，18-20 年每年分别增加了5 所/7 所/8所，校网已经遍布了全国8 个省份，20 个城市，共有在校生人数5.7 万人，同比增速42.8%。2021 年公司将继续保持较高的新建学校速度，目前公司已敲定的未来年度新建学校计划达13 所。

K12 各学段平均学费大幅提升，市场竞争力强劲：2020 年公司小学/初中/高中平均学费分别为2.2 万/2.4 万/2.6 万元，同比分别+19.4%/+6.1%/+15.7%，2020 年公司上调了苍溪天立，德阳天立，遵义天立和周口天立K12 学段以及天立国际学校小初学段的学费。公司在疫情下仍保持学费的高增长，从侧面也验证了公司旗下学校具备较强的市场竞争力。

公司解决低线城市优质教育资源稀缺问题的初心不变，品牌输出，标准化管理为公司异地扩张保驾护抗：公司解决的是三四线城市当地生源就近享受优质K12 教育资源的问题，对当地政府有重要意义，能够享受到丰厚的政府补助条件。标准化的管理制度和品牌输出一直是公司的核心竞争力，也是公司成功异地扩张的保障。

盈利预测与投资评级：我们认为未来3 年公司仍将保持每年5-10 所的学校扩张速度，平均学费和寄宿费增长超预期。我们进一步上调公司预期，将公司21-22 年归母净利润从5.29/7.52 亿元上调至5.30/7.57/亿元，预计2023 年净利润10.7 亿元，同比+39.9%/42.8%/40.9%，最新收盘价对应2021-23 财年PE 分别为30/ 21/ 15 倍，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示：招生不及预期、新建学校项目落地推进不及预期等

Brief comment on performance

In 2020, the company's revenue was 1.298 billion yuan, + 41.5% compared with the same period last year, and the adjusted net profit was 381 million yuan, + 43.7% compared with the same period last year. The company achieved revenue of 1.298 billion yuan in 2020, + 41.5% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 381 million yuan, + 43.7% year-on-year. The proposed final dividend per share is 6.27 cents, with a dividend yield of 7.2% based on the latest closing price. The sharp increase in the company's performance is mainly due to the large number of new schools, the increase in the number of students and the increase in tuition fees in some schools.

High enrollment rate and high reputation continue to drive the improvement of gross profit margin and sales expense rate: the company's gross profit margin in 2020 is 43.3%, which is + 2.3 pct year on year. Tianli's schools have always maintained a very high enrollment rate. In 2020, the undergraduate rate of the senior high school class reached 96.3%, and the undergraduate rate reached 75.5%, far exceeding the average level of Sichuan Province and the whole country. Thanks to the company's high enrollment rate and good reputation, the company's sales expense rate further improved. In 2020, the sales expense rate was only 2.2%, which was 0.4 pct higher than the same period last year. The management expense rate increased slightly due to the newly-built school. It rose from 9.9% in 2019 to 11.3% in 2020, but it is still at a low level compared with the company's 15-18 years.

There are 32 schools across the country, and the number of students has increased significantly to 50,000 +, and the expansion in other places has begun to take shape. In recent years, the company has maintained a trend of rapid expansion. The number of K12 schools has increased from 12 in 2017 to 32 in 2020, with an annual increase of 5 / 7 / 8 in 18-20. The school network has spread across 8 provinces and 20 cities across the country, with a total of 57000 students, an increase of 42.8% over the same period last year. In 2021, the company will continue to maintain a high speed of building new schools. at present, the company has finalized plans for 13 new schools in the coming year.

The average tuition fees of each section of K12 have increased significantly, and the market competitiveness is strong: the average tuition fees of primary school / junior high school / senior high school are 22000 / 24000 / 26000 yuan respectively in 2020. Compared with the same period last year, the company raised the tuition fees of Cangxi Tianli, Deyang Tianli, Zunyi Tianli and Zhoukou Tianli K12 and Tianli International School. The company still maintains the high growth of tuition fees under the epidemic, which also proves that the schools under the company have strong market competitiveness.

The company's original intention to solve the problem of scarcity of high-quality educational resources in low-line cities remains unchanged, brand output and standardized management protect the company's remote expansion: the company solves the problem that local students in third-and fourth-tier cities enjoy high-quality K12 educational resources nearby. it is of great significance to the local government and can enjoy generous government subsidies. Standardized management system and brand output have always been the core competitiveness of the company, but also the guarantee of the company's successful remote expansion.

Profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that the company will maintain the expansion rate of 5-10 schools per year in the next 3 years, and the average tuition and boarding fees will grow faster than expected. We further raise the company's forecast to increase the company's 21-22 net profit from 529Universe 752 million to 530Universe. It is estimated that the net profit in 2023 is 1.07 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year. The latest closing price corresponds to 30 / 21 / 15 times PE for the 2021-23 fiscal year, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: the enrollment is not as expected, the landing of the new school project is not as expected, and so on.

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天立教育(01773.HK)2020年报点评：收入+42% 经调整净利+44% 新学校异地扩张高速推进中

Tianli Education (01773.HK) 2020 Report Review: Revenue +42%, adjusted net profit +44%, new schools are expanding rapidly from other locations

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