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天立教育(01773.HK):规模持续增长 致力提升中西部及二三线教育质量

Tianli Education (01773.HK): Continued growth in scale and strives to improve the quality of secondary and third-tier education in the Midwest

天風證券 ·  Mar 20, 2021 00:00

  Revenue for the full year of 2020 was 1,298 million, an increase of 41.5% over the previous year, mainly due to increased student enrollment and tuition fee increases at some of our own K12 schools.

Specifically, depending on the type of income, tuition fee income is still the core source. Tuition revenue for the full year of 2020 was 942 million yuan (72.62%, -0.28pct year on year), up 43.32% year on year; boarding fee income was 102 million yuan (7.86% year on year, +0.33pct year on year), up 40.87% year on year; school restaurant operating fee revenue was 250 million yuan (19.22% year on year, +0.16pct year on year), up 35.62% year on year; management and franchise fee revenue was 0.04 million yuan (0.30% year on year, +0.11pct year on year), up 11.57% year on year .

Judging from the contract debt reflecting advance collection of tuition and accommodation fees, the contract debt as of the end of 2020 was 721 million yuan, an increase of 22.62% over the previous year. Since tuition fees for the 20/21 academic year were 1-2 months later than the same period last year, the year-end contract debt growth rate changed from negative to positive compared to 20H1.

Judging from deferred revenue reflecting subsidies, a new subsidy of 924 million yuan was received for the full year of 2020, an increase of 99% over the previous year; carry-over subsidies (profit and loss) were 244 million yuan, an increase of 62% over the previous year; 600 million yuan was retained at the beginning of the comprehensive period; and a total of 1,284 million yuan at the end of the period, an increase of 113% over the previous year.

The Tianli Education School network consists of self-owned schools owned and operated by ①, ② trusteeship schools that provide management services, and ③ licensed early childhood education centers that have been granted permission to use the company's brand. As of December 31, 2020, the company's school network consists of 32 K-12 schools operating in 20 cities in Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, Yunnan, Henan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (these schools manage 20 high school segments, 24 middle school segments, 27 elementary school segments and 7 kindergarten segments); a total of 5 training centers, 2 preschool centers and 3 early childhood education centers are operated by the company or licensed to use the brand.

We believe that strong market demand, mature teaching and refinement, systematic output capabilities, and the company's positive growth attitude will drive Tianli's continued rapid growth.

Tianli has developed a centralized and standardized management system to help integrate resources, enhance operational efficiency, and maintain the level of education services. Thanks to the company's management system, the company has been able to rapidly expand the school network to new geographical locations and at the same time implement quality standards within the school network. Tianli's understanding of the K12 education market, local government support for private K12 education, and the reputation it enjoys among parents and students are all beneficial to the company's further expansion of K-12 school networks in third-tier to fourth-tier cities in China.

Maintain profit forecasts and give buying ratings

Tianli uses its own experience in running schools to effectively enrich the supply of local education and use the unique flexibility advantages of private enterprises to improve operational efficiency; on the other hand, it will effectively reduce the pressure on local finances, and most local governments across the country have adopted a positive attitude towards private education. We have always been optimistic about the Tianli model and recognize its ability to export and replicate the experience of quality educational resources from other places. At present, the policy has not been finally implemented, but it is recommended that active attention be paid to guiding the development of high-quality private education according to local conditions or the long-term direction. Tianli is currently in a stage of rapid growth. More attention needs to be paid to income and student growth. With the gradual release of the school's mature performance, we expect Tianli FY21-22 net profit of RMB 530 million and 7.2 billion respectively. The corresponding PE will be 30xPE and 22xPE respectively.

Risk warning: The implementing regulations of the Civil Promotion Law have not yet been implemented, enrollment falls short of expectations, and the loss of core executives

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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