Event
Investment and construction of PBAT project: the company plans to jointly invest with Donghua Science and Technology to set up a project company to build a 100000 ton / year PBAT project in the first phase. The registered capital of the project company is 200 million yuan, of which 98 million yuan is subscribed by the company in cash.
Brief comment
Make full use of BDO and other raw material resources, layout high-growth single product PBAT due to the intensive promotion of local plastic restrictions, the domestic degradable plastic market opens rapidly. We estimate that the national market demand for degradable plastics will reach about 2.5 million tons by 2025, and the market will maintain a compound growth rate of 25% + in the years from 2021. At present, the only domestic industrialization of degradable plastic products is PBAT, the company's new PBAT project profitability is expected. On the other hand, Tianye Group has a production capacity of 200000 tons of BDO, and the production base is close to the origin of PTA and adipic acid, the other two major raw materials of PBAT, which can make full use of the advantages of raw materials and reduce costs.
PVC: one of the chemicals most affected by carbon neutralization, the high boom is expected to maintain the supply side: calcium carbide is one of the chemicals most affected by carbon neutralization; the net increase in PVC production capacity may be significantly limited. The power consumption of calcium carbide products is extremely high, and the power cost accounts for about 40% of the total cost, and the added value is low. It is one of the chemicals with the highest energy consumption per unit GDP and carbon emissions per unit GDP. On the other hand, calcium carbide accounts for a very high proportion of real estate energy in Inner Mongolia, about 35%, and the national output accounts for about 40%. Inner Mongolia recently issued a number of safeguard measures (draft for soliciting opinions) on ensuring the completion of the "14th five-year Plan" energy consumption double control target. And clearly pointed out that "from 2021, no longer approve calcium carbide and other new capacity projects", and specifically for calcium carbide mentioned that "mine reheating furnaces below 30000 KVA, in principle, all will be withdrawn by the end of 2022; those who meet the requirements can be replaced by capacity reduction according to 1.25." In the later stage, other provinces are also likely to implement relevant policies one after another. In the long run, not only incremental production capacity is eliminated, the national stock of calcium carbide production capacity is likely to shrink significantly. The calcium carbide process accounts for 80% of the national PVC production capacity, and the strict control of calcium carbide will greatly affect the progress of the net increase in the national PVC capacity. At present, according to the plans announced by the companies, there are about 20-3 million tons of production capacity to be put into production in the country in the current two years, corresponding to about 3% increment per year, and many of these capacity are likely to not be put into production as planned.
Demand side: domestic demand maintains rapid growth, while overseas demand is expected to remain strong. In terms of domestic demand, "replacing steel with plastic" and "replacing wood with plastic" is still a major trend. in recent years, the application scene of PVC in China has been expanding (PVC facade, PVC pipe, etc.). Over the past 16 years, the domestic apparent demand for PVC has maintained a high growth rate of 5-10%. In terms of external demand, the US real estate cycle is expected to recover strongly, which is expected to form obvious support for PVC external demand (more than half of PVC demand is pipe, profile, floor, wallboard, etc., all of which are closely related to the completion of real estate), and affected by the epidemic and other factors, overseas PVC production capacity continued to reduce load, but also increased the PVC gap. In addition, in recent years, overseas PVC flooring has become an obvious product, with a strong trend to replace composite flooring, while PVC flooring has a high proportion of domestic production capacity and fast growth, which continues to bring obvious incremental demand for PVC; the company is pure PVC, the cost advantage is stable in the first echelon, and the follow-up asset injection is expected to continue to reorganize assets and peel off assets outside the main chemical industry. Gradually focus on the thermoelectric → calcium carbide → chlor-alkali → cement integrated industrial chain, on the one hand, the industrial chain integration advantage is strong, on the other hand, the company is located in Xinjiang, self-provided thermoelectricity, calcium carbide and PVC production costs have obvious advantages.
In terms of PVC production capacity, as the equity production capacity of Tianneng Chemical Co., Ltd. is about 650000 tons (100000 tons of paste resin), and 450000 tons of PVC capacity is also planned to be injected into the group, after injection, the company's PVC production capacity will reach 1.1 million tons, which is currently the most flexible and asset quality PVC target.
We forecast that the 20 -, 21-and 22-year net profit of the company will be 8.25,13.92 and 1.782 billion respectively, corresponding to PE 15X, 9X and 7X, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
Local policies fall short of expectations; asset restructuring plans fall short of expectations
