Event: on March 16, bonded Technology released its 2020 annual report, which showed that the company's total revenue in 2020 was 2.06 billion yuan, an increase of 9.98% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 213 million yuan, up 35.05% over the same period last year. The net profit was 169 million yuan, an increase of 28.24% over the same period last year.
With the superimposed impact of the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the warehousing business reached an all-time high. Judging from the company's annual income, the warehousing business income is 508 million yuan, the gross profit is 335 million yuan, and the profit accounts for 81.41% of the total business, which constitutes the vast majority of the company's profits. Among them, the income of the terminal storage part with ethylene glycol as the main storage is 151 million yuan, the profit is 3.11 yuan, the profit contribution is 75.56%, the growth rate is 20.4%. In addition to the warehousing business, chemical trade and service income also increased by a large margin, with a combined profit contribution of 12%. The main reason for the large growth of warehousing business is that the epidemic affects the production rhythm of the downstream manufacturing industry, and warehousing is at a high level throughout the year. During the domestic epidemic control period in the first half of the year, downstream factories stopped production, and the warehousing level reached a high level. Judging from the import data of ethylene glycol, the import volume of ethylene glycol decreased by 20.5% month-on-month since April, remained basically the same level until September, and fell further after October. On the other hand, with the resumption of work and production in China, some overseas demand orders are transferred to China, which not only consumes the original inventory, but also replenishes the inventory. In addition to glycol liquid storage business to maintain a high level, the company's solid storage revenue increased by 15.7% year-on-year, profit increased by 74.75%. It can be seen that the suppression of domestic production by the epidemic in the early stage and the mismatch between supply and demand at home and abroad in the second half of the year are the main reasons for keeping the company's warehousing business at a high level.
The demand for ethylene glycol remains high, providing continuous support for the company's main business. In the first half of this year, the basic pattern of mismatch between supply and demand at home and abroad will remain unchanged, domestic production will remain strong, demand for ethylene glycol will remain high, and there will be further support for the profitability of bonded science and technology warehousing business. In the medium and long term, the domestic demand for ethylene glycol will continue to grow, coupled with the shortage of domestic coastline resources, the scarcity of terminal and tank resources, strong demand and tight supply, the company will continue to make a profit in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's EPS in 2021-2023 is expected to be 0.25max 0.27max 0.29RMB, corresponding to PB 1.80max 1.59max 1.42X, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the growth rate of foreign trade decreases after the recovery of global trade frictions and epidemics
