First, the level of valuation:

WithScience and Technology Innovation Board's expansionAndSmall stock non-bargaining chipThe release of the future semiconductor industryValuation will be differentiated (K-type)The leading company will mainly rely on performance growth and maintain a relatively reasonable position in valuationOn the other hand, the valuation of other non-leading companies will be uncapped.Ceiling effect. According to our outsourced research report and Wind's consistent expectations

In the chip design industryLeading Weir sharesCorresponding to 21 / 22, PE is 55x/42x, the leader of closed testing industry.Changdian science and technologyCorresponding to 21 / 22, PE is 35x/26x, power semiconductor leader.Hua RunweiCorresponding to 21 / 22 PE is 50x/42x, semiconductor displayLeading TCL technologyCorresponding to 21 / 22 PE is 12x/9x, taking into account the growth of the industry and the level of historical valuationLeading companies have returned to a relatively reasonable layout range..

II. Performance persistence:

Semiconductor performance persistence mainly comes fromInventory cycle of semiconductorsAndInnovation cycle.

Inventory cycleDue to the strong demand for power semiconductors from new energy innovation, the growing demand for 12-inch digital chips for 5G mobile phones and AIOT, superimposed by the current rigid supply of new global production capacity, there can not be a large amount of substantial capacity supply in a short period of time, resulting in the whole industry taking the initiative to replenish inventory in the volume and price rising stage, which will continue to drive the performance of related companies.

Innovation cycleAt present, we are in the position ofThe confluence period of two great innovations: energy revolution and computing revolutionTrams + self-driving will bring continuous demand, the current popularity of trams driving the continued shortage of eight-inch pieces only reflects energy innovation, while the subsequent self-driving demand for semiconductors is stronger.

Third, the great logic of the industry

The great logic of the semiconductor industry is the domestic replacement of China's underlying hard technology, which is just beginning, and China's localization rate in most areas is still very low.

In the future, the semiconductor mid-stream chassis, which is mainly stored by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and the Yangtze River, will change the previous pattern of external circulation.The future must be internal and external cycle. Internal cycle mainly refers to equipment, materials, key chip design, EDA, IP and other fields.This is the big logic of the entire Chinese semiconductor industry and has not changed because of this round of decline.

Conclusion:

Continuous adjustment of semiconductor plate at presentIt's just killing valuation, not performance and logic.It's just...The suppression of plate valuation by the adjustment of systematic risk preference, butDo not change the fundamentals of the semiconductor plateThat is, the performance persistence brought by the business cycle and the great logic of semiconductors under the background of the double cycle era are still supported. At present, the valuation of the leading companies has reached a relatively reasonable range.The low point is over..

Semiconductor recent continuous adjustment, only kill valuation, not kill performance, let alone kill logic.

It is recommended to pay attention to the recentBe mistakenly killed to the valuationRelatively reasonable, but performance persistence is still strong.Each plate leader:

1. Opportunities for fab manufacturing:Huarun Micro, Wentai Technology, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, Shilan Wei, Jie Micro Power, Yangjie Technology, Changdian Technology, Jingfang Technology, Tongfu, Huatian, TCL Technology, Shenzhen Technology, Sanan Integration

2. Opportunities for equipment expansion:North Huachuang, Yitang Semiconductor, Shengmei Semiconductor, Wanye, Huafeng Measurement and Control, Changchuan, Zhichun, Dazu, Zhongwei, Jingsheng, Saiteng

3. Opportunities for material localization:Central shares, Shengong shares, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Lion Micro, Jiangfeng Electronics, Jacques Technology, Jingrui shares, Shanshan shares, Anji Technology.

4. Opportunities for chip design:Weier, Zhuoshengwei, Ziguang, Jingchen, Fuhanwei, Shengbang, Silipu, Hengxuan Technology, Ruixin Micro, Zhaoyi Innovation, Huiding Technology,