Economist Stephen Roach said on Monday that Wall Street had overestimated the strength of the consumer recovery and that "the rebound in demand will quickly reverse direction later this year and the V-shaped recovery will lose momentum".

Roach told CNBC that with the large-scale promotion of vaccines and the introduction of stimulus policies, long-term pent-up demand can be felt to be released immediately. But when he saw these surging numbers, he felt that most of the so-called V-shaped recovery might have been fulfilled.

"the proportion of durable goods consumption in GDP in the United States has risen to the highest level in 13 or 14 years," he said. Pent-up demand has rebounded to a large extent, and it now appears that this is an advance growth, which should have taken place in the second half of this year or early 2022. "

Roach pointed out that from the point of view of the consumption structure, the recovery at this stage is brought about by the consumption of furniture and cars, while the consumption of catering and theatres is still in the doldrums, and this part of consumption may have to be delayed for several quarters before it will rebound, so the V-shaped recovery may lose the momentum of subsequent growth.

"the recovery in demand for these face-to-face activities is still lagging behind, as is the job creation. Even if the vaccine is on the market, I think there will be some obvious economic sequelae, ranging from a few quarters to several years. "

Roach said he expects inflation concerns to subside if the "demand rebound" loses momentum and collapses.

"the gap between supply and demand will prevent inflation from rising sharply," he said. That means yields on 10-year Treasuries will fall slightly.

During the SARS epidemic in 2003, Roach served as chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.

In the light of this experience, he believes that a weak global economy, supply chain recovery and technical breakthroughs will limit the rise in inflation.

Despite his optimism about inflation, he remains sceptical about the strength of the US economic recovery. He believes that the latest stimulus package is a temporary measure because residents' incomes cannot continue to rise by issuing relief checks alone.

Roach said:

Many people are expecting the V-shaped recovery to last, but it is very difficult to maintain the momentum of growth.