Report guide

The company is a leading financial IT provider, benefiting from the IT upgrade cycle and taking advantage of Jianxin Jinke to rapidly expand its customers. In 2020, the goodwill will be light, and the employee stock ownership purchase will complete the thickened safety pad.

Main points of investment

Distribution has become a trend. In 2020, a new cycle of bank IT upgrading will be launched. With the Internet and mobility of banking services, the advantages of distribution are highlighted. It is a general trend for banks to migrate their architecture to distribution. With the input of bank IT, the income of bank IT manufacturers is cyclical, and the company is determined to raise no more than 450 million yuan to enhance the competitiveness of distributed products, which is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of distributed performance in the new cycle.

Jianxin Jinke takes advantage of the potential to rapidly expand new customers and open a broad incremental market. Jianxin Jinke, a financial technology subsidiary of CCB, is a benchmark enterprise of bank IT, and its products are in line with the distributed trend and easy to popularize. It is expected to accelerate the capacity of the same industry by virtue of the industry status of CCB. CCB is the company's largest customer and has worked closely with Jianxin Jinke for many years, and the company has also become a strategic partner with Jianxin Jinke. It is expected that the software business growth rate will reach 37% and 27% in 2021-2022, and revenue growth will reach 38.68% and 17.94%, benefiting from the upstream cycle of bank IT boom.

With the provision of large goodwill light, employee stock ownership premium low and thickened safety pad affected by the epidemic and changes in the industry pattern in 2020, the performance of mobile marketing subsidiaries declined, the company intends to set aside 645-794 million yuan of large goodwill impairment preparation, light. In February 2021, the company's employee stock ownership plan to purchase the completion price of about 8.77 yuan per share, the current price premium is low, thickening the safety pad.

Catalyst

1, the growth rate of orders is higher than expected; 2, the performance of the first quarterly report is higher than expected; 3, the expansion of new customers is better than expected.

Profit forecast and valuation

It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2020 to 2022 will be-5.86,2.03 and 309 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52.10% in 2022. The PE of the company will be-1.31,0.45,0.69 yuan respectively, and the current stock price EPS will be 20 and 13 times higher in 21-22 years. Give the company the 2021 target PE30 times, corresponding to the total market value of 6.1 billion, the target price of 13.6 yuan. For the first time, coverage gives a "buy" rating.

Risk hint

1, the risk of bank IT development is lower than expected; 2, the risk of brain drain.