Original title: the differentiation between the Nasdaq and the Dow is the highest in 28 years. What is the truth behind it? Source: Jinshi data

In midday trading on Monday, NASDAQ100 Index and Dow JonesThe trend of the industrial average index is divided. While the Dow hit another intraday high, the Nasdaq 100 index fell sharply, closing down 2.41%, and has recently fallen nearly 10% from its high, a range that has always been seen as a correction.

All but five of the Dow's 30 stocks rose at 4 p.m. EDT on Monday. Walt Disney shares were up 6.3% by the close, leading the Dow higher. Visa IncInc. 、 Goldman Sachs GroupBoth the group and Home Depot Inc. Are up more than 2%.

Meanwhile, Apple IncCompany, Tesla, Inc.Company, Microsoft CorpAnd NetflixShares of Inc. Et al fell in intraday trading, putting pressure on the NASDAQ 100 index. The same is true of stocks that performed well during the epidemic, ZoomVideo Communications Inc. Has dropped nearly 8% of the line DocuSign Inc. Has dropped about 6%.

It is also the first time since 1993 that the Dow has reached a record high, while the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen nearly 10% from its high.

The truth behind the differentiation of performance: the plate rotation between growth stocks and value stocks?

Foreign media reported that thisIt reflects the plate rotation between growth stocks and value stocks.Mike Bailey, director of FBB Capital Partners research, said:

"it feels like there has been an adjustment in investors' attitudes towards technology and growth stocks. Investors think that the prices of stocks that outperformed the market during the epidemic are too high, and it is time to lower their valuations.

Investors are more confident about economic recoveryHope to bet on fundamental improvement through large-cap stocks other than technology stocks and growth stocks with more reasonable valuations.Betting on improved fundamentals at a reasonable price may be the driving force driving the Dow to a new high. "

This divergence shows that investors are turning to stocks that are closely related to the economic cycle.

With bond market turmoil and 10-year treasury yields approaching 1.6%, technology stocks have become less attractive. This is because, structurally, high-valued stocks are more sensitive to changes in risk-free interest rates-US stock investors are used to using the DCF valuation method, whose core logic is to discount a company's future expected cash flow, which is based on the growth of cash flow, and some growth stocks may have been overvalued.

As US bond yields rise, risk-free interest rates will depress corporate valuations, so growth stocks are likely to experience a bubble squeeze. This has brought pain to technology stocks with high growth and high valuations. The performance of some funds with heavy positions in what was once the hottest stocks on Wall Street has also plummeted, typical of which is Ark Innovation ETF (code: ARKK) managed by Cathie Wood.

According to compiled data, the ETF recorded the longest consecutive week of decline since the outbreak led to a market crash last year.. As of 7:34 New York time on Monday, the fund was down 2.4%. Other products of Ark Investment Management, where Ms. Wood is based, were also lower. Its heavy positions include Tesla, Inc., Square, INC. Inc. And Teladoc Health Inc.

02 Wall Street is bullish on the future as always.

While investors are nervous about high valuations and rising interest rates, equity strategists are as bullish as ever.

Goldman Sachs Group and Credit Suisse strategists expect stocks to climb further as investors withdraw money from bonds and cash and economic growth accelerates. Abby Joseph Cohen, a senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, said that even if some stocks fall because of higher interest rates, other sectors will rise strongly.

Cohen said in an interview:

"We are seeing this very important change and we are finding that stocks that have benefited from the end of the epidemic blockade are doing well and good news about vaccines will help."

Goldman Sachs GroupThe s & p is expected to hit 4300 by the end of the year, meaning it is up 13 per cent from its current level, setting another all-time high.

Goldman Sachs Group gave a reason to be bullish on stocks. The report released on Friday by strategist David Kostin et al said:

"as a lesson from history, equity funds usually see inflows when real interest rates rise."

The bank forecastHouseholds will be the largest source of demand for American stocksThe purchase volume this year is estimated to be 350 billion US dollars. Goldman Sachs Group said that with the resurgence of share buybacks, the size of corporate purchases will also reach $300 billion.

Credit SuisseAndrew Garthwaite also agrees with Goldman Sachs Group, pointing out that this is the beginning of the transfer of bond funds into stocks. He released a report on Monday that stock and bond yields were positively correlated in February, while in the past, the stock market rose an average of 6% six months later:

"We worry when US 10-year bond yields rise above 2 per cent, inflation expectations exceed 3 per cent, or when yields on inflation-protected bonds rise sharply."

Although at present, these conditions are still some distance from the realization.But the bank stuck to its forecast that the global index, which excludes the US, would reach 375 by the end of the year, 13 per cent higher than today's level.

JPMorgan Chase & CoStrategist Mislav Matejka believes that the shift from technology stocks to cyclical stocks is not over, aviation, hotel and car suppliers are attractive, and investors should consider shorting online retail and technology stocks.

According to CNBC, billionaire David Tepper, a top portfolio fund manager, also said it was hard to be bearish on stocks and thought the decline in Treasuries might be over. Tepper believes that an important market risk has been eliminated and interest rates should be more stable in the short term. Another short-term bullish catalyst is the fiscal stimulus package, which is like Amazon.Com Inc.Such stocks are beginning to look attractive. The Fed is not expected to do anything until December unless unemployment plummets.

Media survey analysts' median target for the S & P 500 at the end of the year is 4100, compared with its current level of 3850.