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摩根大通认为新兴市场货币的大跌带来买入机会

JPMorgan Chase & Co believes that the sharp fall in emerging market currencies brings buying opportunities.

新浪財經 ·  Mar 9, 2021 00:39

The worst sell-off in emerging market currencies since the start of the epidemic is attracting some of the world's largest investment funds to increase their bets on plummeting securities.

JPMorgan Chase & CoPierre-Yves Bareau, head of emerging market debt at Asset Management in London, said this is particularly true for commodity-sensitive currencies, which are expected to rebound.

"wait for the dollar to rebound a bit and buy at a bargain," he said in an interview. "

Many investors, including Bareau, believe that the recent turmoil in assets in developing countries is only a brief twist against an optimistic backdrop. On Monday, the MSCI emerging market currency index posted its biggest decline since March 23 last year. The index fell to a four-month low and below its 100-day moving average, suggesting further declines are likely to follow.

Of the 24 major emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, 21 have depreciated so far this year, with the Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Argentine peso falling the most. So far, only the Taiwan dollar, the Russian rouble and the yuan have barely risen.

Nevertheless, according to Goldman Sachs GroupAccording to the group's analysis, the currencies of developing countries as a whole have proved relatively resilient in the face of soaring US Treasury yields. Strategists Zach Pandl, Kamakshya Trivedi and others wrote in the report that this is the result of improved global growth prospects, stronger commodity prices and improved balance of payments of developing economies.

They also recommend commodity-linked assets, adding the Russian rouble to the basket of emerging market currencies, including the Mexican peso, the South African rand and the Indian rupee.

At the same time, BlackrockBlackrock Investment Research Institute (BlackRock Investment Institute), a think-tank, is neutral on emerging market local currency debt, citing the prospect of a weak dollar and loose global monetary policy.

"We see catch-up potential as the asset class lags behind the recovery in risky assets," strategists Wei Li and Elga Bartsch wrote on Monday.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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