Hong Kong Stock Real Estate Sector Weekly Report: China Building Materials Reorganizes Cement Assets, Many Property Management Leaders Announce Yingxi

富途資訊 · Mar 6, 2021 16:20 · Exclusive

一、行业近况

本周恒生地产建筑业指数下跌2.45%，跑输恒指（+0.41%），行业相对收益接近-3%。但按年初至今累计收益，恒生地产建筑业跑赢恒指2.36%。

从富途大地产等权重指数的35只成分股（详见附表1）来看，本周涨幅前三的个股分别是：龙湖集团（+6%）、绿城服务（+4%）、以及中海物业（+3%）。跌幅前三的个股分别是：贝壳（-17%）、融创服务（-17%）以及金科服务（-16%）。

按细分板块分析，本周大地产行业各个细分板块均表现较差，尤其是物管板块，在跌幅前十的个股中，70%均属于物管板块。

行业重要动态方面，近期主要有两件重大事情：

其一：中国建材和天山股份发布重组草案。天山股份拟采用发行股份及支付现金的方式，向中国建材等26名交易对方购买中联水泥100%股权、南方水泥99.9%股权、西南水泥95.7%股权及中材水泥100%股权等资产。
其二：物管板块迎来盈喜年报季。永升生活服务、世茂服务、宝龙商业、碧桂园服务、华润万象生活等在近期披露2020年业绩报告或盈利公告。
-近期行业重要动态

以下为这两大重要事件点评。

二、本周观点

中国建材把旗下水泥资产注入天山，一方面可以解决集团内部同业竞争的问题，提高内部的协同性；另一方面，助力天山股份超越海螺水泥成为最大的上市水泥企业，提升企业全方位竞争力，同时也为中国建材的水泥资产带来价值重估机会。

在本次交易前，中国建材（3323.HK）持有天山股份（000877.SZ）45.87%的股权，以及100%持有本次重组标的——中联水泥和中材水泥的股权。另外两个重组标的，即南方水泥和西南水泥，中国建材也拥有部分所有权，中国建材还与其他21名主体合计持有南方水泥99.9%股权、与另外6名主体合计持有西南水泥95.7股权。

因此中国建材集团内部存在一定程度的同业竞争问题。而本次资产重组方案可以将中国建材集团内的水泥资产全部注入到天山股份，从而有效地解决集团旗下子公司的同业竞争问题，提高集团内部的协同性。

重组后，天山股份的水泥产能将提升至约4亿吨以上，水泥熟料产能提升至约3亿吨以上，商品混凝土产能提升至近4亿立方米左右，砂石骨料产能将提升至约1亿吨以上，主营业务及核心竞争优势显著，这也意味着新天山股份将在产能、自产品销量等指标上超越水泥行业目前的龙头海螺水泥（0914.HK），有机会让投资者重新评估中国建材旗下水泥资产的价值。

物管板块多家头部公司近期披露2020年业绩盈喜公告，这再次验证了物管赛道具备高成长属性。

物管板块内诸多头部公司，如碧桂园服务、华润万象生活、世茂服务、永升生活服务、宝龙商业等近期纷纷披露2020年业绩的盈喜公告，且这些公司的归母净利润同比增速均高于50%。板块内普遍性的高速业绩增长，足以证明其具备良好的成长性。

三、投资建议

展望2021全年，从细分板块来看，建议继续加大对高成长、业绩具备确定性物管板块的配置，尤其是在当前市场面临大幅调整之际，建议投资者对超跌的物管龙头保持紧密关注。

四、风险提示

宏观经济景气度下滑，房地产开发行业监管政策继续趋严

五、附录

附表1：富途大地产等权重指数35只成分股

附表2：大地产板块各细分板块龙头本周表现及估值情况

I. recent situation of the industry

This week, the Hang Seng property construction index fell 2.45%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index (+ 0.41%), and the industry's relative earnings were close to-3%. However, according to the cumulative income so far from the beginning of the year, Hang Seng property construction outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 2.36%.

Judging from the 35 stocks in the weighting index such as Fortune Real Estate (see schedule 1 for details), the top three stocks that have risen this week are Longfor Group (+ 6 per cent), Greentown Services (+ 4 per cent) and China Shipping Properties (+ 3 per cent). The top three stocks that fell were KE Holdings Inc. (- 17%), Sunac Services (- 17%) and Jinke Services (- 16%).

By sub-plate analysis, this week's real estate industry sub-sectors are poor performance, especially the property management plate, in the top 10 stocks, 70% belong to the property management plate.

In terms of important developments in the industry, there are two major things in the near future:

First: China National Building Material and Tianshan shares issued a restructuring draft. Tianshan plans to issue shares and pay cash to buy assets such as 100 per cent stake in Zoomlion cement, 99.9 per cent stake in Southern cement, 95.7 per cent stake in Southwest cement and 100 per cent stake in China Wood cement from 26 counterparties, including China National Building Material.
Second: the property management plate ushered in Yingxi annual report season. Yongsheng Life Service, Shimao Service, Baolong Commercial, Country Garden Services Holdings, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services and others have recently disclosed their 2020 earnings report or profit announcement.
-recent important developments in the industry

The following are comments on these two important events.

II. Views of the week

China National Building Material's injection of cement assets into Tianshan can, on the one hand, solve the problem of intra-industry competition within the group and improve internal cooperation; on the other hand, help Tianshan shares surpass Anhui Conch Cement to become the largest listed cement enterprise, enhance the omni-directional competitiveness of enterprises, and bring opportunities for revaluation of China National Building Material's cement assets at the same time.

Prior to the deal, China National Building Material (3323.HK) had a 45.87 per cent stake in 000877.SZ and 100 per cent in Zhonglian cement and Zhonglian cement, the subject of the restructuring. China National Building Material also owns part of the other two restructuring targets, Southern cement and Southwest cement. China National Building Material holds a total of 99.9 per cent of Southern cement and 95.7 per cent of Southwest cement with six other entities.

Therefore, there is a certain degree of inter-industry competition within China National Building Material Group. This asset restructuring plan can inject all the cement assets of China National Building Material Group into Tianshan shares, so as to effectively solve the problem of inter-industry competition among the subsidiaries of the group and improve the cooperation within the group.

After the reorganization, Tianshan's cement production capacity will be increased to more than 400 million tons, cement clinker production capacity to more than 300 million tons, commercial concrete production capacity to nearly 400 million cubic meters, and sand aggregate production capacity to more than 100 million tons. The main business and core competitive advantages are significant. It also means that New Tianshan will surpass Anhui Conch Cement, the current leader in the cement industry, in terms of production capacity and self-product sales, and have the opportunity for investors to reassess the value of China National Building Material's cement assets.

A number of leading companies in the property management plate recently disclosed the Yingxi announcement of their 2020 results, which once again confirmed that the property management track has a high growth attribute.

Many leading companies in the property management sector, such as Country Garden Services Holdings, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services, Shimao Service, Yongsheng Life Services, Baolong Business and so on, have recently announced their 2020 results, and their net profit growth is more than 50 per cent year-on-year. The universal high-speed performance growth in the plate is enough to prove that it has good growth.

III. Investment suggestions

Looking forward to the whole year of 2021, from the perspective of subdivision, it is suggested that we should continue to increase the allocation of property management plates with high growth and deterministic performance, especially at a time when the current market is facing a substantial adjustment, investors are advised to keep close attention to the oversold property management faucets.

IV. Risk hints

The macroeconomic boom has declined, and the regulatory policy of the real estate development industry continues to be stricter.

V. Appendix

Table 1: 35 constituent stocks of Fu Tu Real Estate Equal weight Index

Table 2: performance and valuation of each segment leader of Dazhou plate this week

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

港股大地产板块周报：中国建材重组水泥资产，多家物管龙头发布盈喜