Review of the market this week

This week is another scary week for global stock markets!The three major indexes of US stocks have ups and downs and divergence in performance.Among them$S & P 500 (.SPX.US) $Up 0.81%$Dow (.DJI.US) $Up 1.82%，而Global science and technology weather vane$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US) $Collapse, plunged 2.06%, and the full-year increase narrowed to 0.25%.

Labor Department data released on FridayNon-farm payrolls in the United States rose by 379000 in February, far more than expected by 200000.

Review of market hotspots

1. Us bond yields soar and technology stocks collapse

China Merchants analyzed that the uplift of US bond yields usually corresponds to two kinds of macro logic-liquidity tightening or economic recovery, because at 2021Under the premise of the expectation of a strong recovery of the US economy in 2008, the upward trend of US bond yields has become the market consensus.

China Merchants stressedFor US stocks, in fact, the rise in US bond yields coexists with the rise in US stocks for most of the time, because the simultaneous rise in US stock and US bond yields reflects the rise in US economic growth and the improvement of risk appetite.。

In the context of loose monetary policy pursued by global central banks and zero interest rates and low interest ratesMany asset prices have entered a bubble trend. As a result, the prices of various types of assets are very sensitive to interest rates, especially technology stocks that rely heavily on DCF valuations.

Starting from the Merrill Lynch investment clock, the United States is currently in an "overheated" period, and the order of asset performance is commodities.>Stock >Cash /Bonds.

2. There is no rescue signal! Powell admitted that the bond market was volatile and worried that the financial environment would continue to tighten.

Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, was in an online petition on Thursday, Eastern time.Acknowledge the recent turmoil in the Treasury market, but do not give any clear signal of Fed action.

We expect to see inflation temporarily as the economy recovers. This could put pressure on risky assets.

-Federal Reserve Chairman Powell

But Treasury yields skyrocketed after Powell's speech.Investors and economists have been hoping that he can solve the recent surge in interest rates and are looking forward to adjusting the Fed's asset purchase program.The Fed currently buys $120 billion a month of Treasuries and MBS. There have been recent market rumors that Powell may implement a new version of Operation Twist (Operation Twist), which sells short-term bonds and buys long-term bonds.

But Powell only reiterated his past views on inflation.

3. The ARKK fund, the goddess of bull market, has been hit hard. Give up the annual increase

Due to the pullback of technology stocks, Cathie Wood's main fund is known as the goddess of the bull market.$ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US) $It has plummeted again for many days and has now given up its full-year gains in 2021.

ARKK also suffered a severe sell-off as inflation fears intensified and Treasury yields rose and the technology sector pulled back collectively.

In a low-growth world of low interest rates, low inflation expectations and low GDP growth, ARK is doing pretty well. But when Treasury yields soar, and when energy and financial sectors outperform technology stocks, ARK's performance will naturally be much dimmer.

-Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird

4. Wedbush: technology stocks may rise 25% in the next 12 months

Wedbush analyst saidNow is the time to take advantage of the stock market correction to buy tech giants.Analyst Daniel Ives advises investors to add technology stocks such as Apple Inc, DocuSign, Microsoft Corp and Nuance to their portfolios.

Apple Inc 、Facebook Inc, Amazon.Com Inc, Netflix Inc and Alphabet will drive technology stocks up 25 per cent in the next 12 months. Cloud and cyber security stocks will also soar.

-Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives

5. How to deal with the game between downward valuation and upward performance?

The upward rise in US bond yields will lead to an adjustment in the valuation of US stocks, but becauseU. S. stocks are more profitable, so U. S. stocks will get more solid support.Downward valuation and upward performance are in a game, and Alpha opportunities need to be selected.Short-term configurable pro-cyclical, long-term core assets are still the first choice.

There is a need to focus on the impact of the shift in global liquidity on overall valuations.Sectors that rely on long-term discount logic pricing face greater pressure on valuation adjustment, including leading stocks in industries such as consumption and biomedicine, as well as growth stocks that have not yet been adjusted or underadjusted.。

Review of hot spots in the company

1. Tesla, Inc. and NVIDIA Corp were "on sale". Alphabet Inc-CL C and Facebook Inc led the rise in core assets.

Core assets have experienced a roller coaster this week, and most of the technology stocks with huge gains in the previous period have made a sharp pullback, on the contrary, they have experienced stagflation before.$Facebook Inc (FB.US) $、$Alphabet Inc-CL A (GOOGL.US) $Rise against the trend.

2. Tesla, Inc. 's market capitalization of 1/3 has evaporated. Is the good day for bears coming?

From January 26th to March 5th, Tesla, Inc. stumbled along the way, falling more and rising less.It has fallen for 19 of the 28 trading days.Equivalent to 1/3 of the market value of 275 billion dollars lost, more than the entire market capitalization of Toyota Motor Corp.

The market tends to take the cumulative decline of more than 20% as the criterion to enter the technical bear market, so it can be said thatTesla, Inc. has properly fallen into a bear market.

3. In the post-epidemic era, Zoom is still growing.

Zoom, a video conferencing company, released the latest financial report.It is expected that against the backdrop of improving the epidemic, revenue will still grow by more than 41% in 2021.Zoom's revenue rose more than 350% year-on-year for three consecutive quarters last year.

While Zoom shot to fame by providing free services to many users during the outbreak, the number of paying users has soared as large companies have moved in.At the end of last year, Zoom had about 467100 paying users.A year-on-year increase of nearly 6 times。

4. For the first time EU brings antitrust lawsuit against Apple Inc

The EU is to file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple Inc for the first time, saying it restricts Apple Inc Music's competitors and requires it to change the way App Store operates. People familiar with the matter saidThe European Union will take action on a complaint filed two years ago by music streaming site SpotifyThe website said Apple Inc charged 30% of his subscription fee and refused to tell users that there were other ways to upgrade.

Spotify said Apple Inc Music was able to cut prices because it didn't have to pay 30 per cent of the platform fee.

Antitrust challenges around the world are threatening one of Apple Inc's fastest-growing and most profitable businesses.Apple Inc's service income, including music, video, cloud storage and games, is now Apple Inc's second largest source of income, second only to iPhone mobile phone business.Generated $15.8 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020.

5, semiconductor Q1 financial report the first shot! Broadcom Ltd's performance fell short of expectations.

Broadcom Ltd is one of the world's largest chipmakers, covering smartphone components, key components of network equipment and chips for household Wi-Fi devices and set-top boxes.

As a supplier to Apple IncAs sales of the iPhone12 series have been very hot in recent months, this has raised market expectations for Broadcom Ltd's performance.

Broadcom Ltd's total revenue in the first quarter was $6.66 billion, an increase of 14% over the same period last year, slightly higher than the $6.62 billion expected by analystsBut Broadcom Ltd's semiconductor solutions business had revenue of $4.91 billion in the first quarter, slightly below analysts' expectations of $4.93 billion.

Hot spots next week

The following are the US stock companies that will release their results next week (March 8-March 12):

• Next week, the US stock new energy two-wheeler, four-wheeler$Niu Technologies (NIU.US) $、$XPeng Inc. (XPEV.US) $Release of financial statements, and$Daqo New Energy Corp (DQ.US) $、$Oracle Corp (ORCL.US) $、$AMC cinema line (AMC.US) $、$JD.com (JD.US) $、$DocuSign (DOCU.US) $And other companies will release financial reports one after another.

• Heavyweight new shares$Roblox Corporation (RBLX.US) $、$Coupang (CPNG.US) $、$First High-School Education (FHS.US) $It will go on sale next week. Among them, the Roblox invested by Tencent intends to use a direct listing method similar to that of Spotify.
  

The following are important data and events for next week's trading day (March 8-March 12):

• Important economic data to be released next week:China February M2, CPI data, the United States February CPI, PPI data.