SH:600438 shares have been falling sharply in the last two days. The direct reason is that Poly Xiexin (HK:03800) joined hands with computer numerical Control (SH:603185) to build a 300000-ton granular silicon project, which scared a lot of investors. According to the Dragon and Tiger list on March 3, the top five institutions sold more than 10 billion yuan that day.

This also directly collapses the entire photovoltaic plate. Even other parts of the New Energy Racetrack are not immune.

In fact, before this, the overall trend of Tongwei shares this year is relatively strong, which is stronger than Longji shares (SH:601012) and Sunshine Power (SZ:300274). In this process, it reflects the shortage of polysilicon materials and soaring prices, similar to last year's photovoltaic glass.

From a magnifying perspective, the stock price performance of the entire photovoltaic industry chain has appeared obvious differentiation this year: auxiliary materials and equipment basically remain unchanged, while components once collapsed driven by the Oriental Sunrise (SZ:300118); the silicon link is the strongest, followed by the silicon wafer end. After Tongwei shares were sacrificed by blood this time, the logic of the industrial chain was disturbed again.

Through this "tragedy", we saw a photovoltaic vendetta with ups and downs. Their respective destinies have long been marked in the dark.

01、Tongwei"abandon long into the sky"The essential reason is the threat from Longie.

The photovoltaic industry chain has been linked vertically and horizontally for a long time, and the most famous one is Longji shares + Tongwei shares against Central shares (SZ:002129) + Poly Xiexin (HK:03800). Of course, the final outcome is relatively clear, "Longtong" camp is dominant, Poly Xiexin and Central shares are declining.

But after 2020, the situation changed.

As soon as Tongwei shares changed its alliance with Longji shares, it "broke up completely" with Longji shares, while it made a public alliance with secret tunes such as Trina Solar (SH:688599).

Tonway first stood in the 210 camp, and then announced that it would join hands with Tianhe to enter the silicon wafer segment, and even began to dabble in some components, aiming directly at the Longji stronghold of silicon wafers. Since then, together with Tianhe, the joint venture company from Longji silicon link has all withdrawn, almost completely breaking up with Longji.

It seems that Tongwei's series of capital actions are going to compete with Longji, or even want to replace them. Some onlookers are so naive as to think.

But what does it essentially reflect?

In essence,The daily growth of Longji has seriously threatened the survival of Tongwei.It doesn't affect some business. First of all, Longji won the world in the component sector in 2020, with a global market share approaching 20%. In just a few years, Longji surpassed Jingke, Jinao and Tianhe to become the king of components.

And in the meantime,With the advantage of components, Lonji began to vigorously develop the battery, and if the battery can replicate the success of the component (it seems easy), the position of the leader of photovoltaic cells in Tongwei is in jeopardy.. In order to restrain Tongwei from getting stuck in the silicon link, Longji has successively supported the Asian silicon industry, Daquan, Poly Xiexin and even the new special counterweight to Tongwei.

Since then, I think Longji, which has an advantage in the whole industry chain, may enter the silicon link and "dominate the world" after gaining the absolute advantage of silicon wafers, batteries and components. So,通Wei felt threatened, felt the smell of suffocation, and had to respond in a hurry.

Therefore, from this point of view, Tongwei compared with Longji, there is still a long way to go-whether it is the industrial chain advantage or strategic advantage. Although high silicon prices have alleviated these phenomena, they will not be eliminated at all.

Therefore, I would like to say that Tongwei's real opponent is not Poly Xiexin or Aixu, but Longji.From the day Tongwei left Longji, the gear of fate had begun to sail towards fate.

Of course, it's a long process, and it could take a decade, so if you're just a mid-line investor, maybe you don't have to pay attention to it.

02、Granular silicon came out of nowhere.The "basic disk" that will perish Tongwei?

Granular silicon was constantly hyped in the second half of last year, and Longji also used Poly Xiexin's granular silicon experiment, but the effect was not very satisfactory, so he switched to a small factory product to do the experiment. Recently, Poly Xiexin and the computer have jointly worked on 300000 tons of granular silicon (Tongwei's current silicon production capacity is only about 100000 tons), which will really scare people.

What do you think of this?This is a matter that, responsibly, few people can understand.. Look at those big shots. I don't believe it.

But I don't know. Therefore, I dare not deny from a professional point of view whether Poly Xiexin, which claims to be the "technical benchmark" of the industry, almost went bankrupt, and whether a newly emerging battle against the two giants, Longji and Tongwei, can be successful. What do you think of the chances of winning this?

As a matter of fact, there have been several revolutions in photovoltaic in the past two years. For example, a brokerage research institute brags about mountain coal international and HJT batteries, saying that it wants revolutionary Longji, Tongwei and so on. Then 210 silicon chip vs. 182, which is also Longie at stake, both of which I have criticized because it is clearer.

And this time, I really don't know about granular silicon and Siemens. However, judging from past experience, it is better to say less about "revolution". Judging from the N nature of Poly Xiexin, I thinkJust listen to half of what the story king said. after all, Poly Xiexin's advantage lies in the capital operation rather than the industry itself.

But this incident is also enough to show that the silicon material of Tongwei base camp is not monolithic, and in the face of a lot of competition, this moat is far from Longji. Therefore, the cost advantage is that Tongwei's advantage can keep pace with Longji, but the existing competition pattern of vision, strategy and industrial chain is really getting worse and worse.

03、Around 2022Tongwei faces downward pressure from valuation center

We only look at Tongwei's photovoltaic industry chain. Tongwei in the photovoltaic industry chain is mainly silicon and batteries, known as the global bibcock. The trend of silicon continued to be weak before the first half of 2020. In addition to Tongwei shares with excellent cost control, the silicon industry was almost in a state of loss in the whole industry. Overseas German WACKER and other companies almost withdrew, while Poly Xiexin almost went bankrupt.

In other words, before 2020, silicon is an industry chain with poor profitability, even less than today's photovoltaic modules.

In the second half of 2020, when the silicon market changed suddenly, when downstream integrated enterprises, specialized enterprises and "third parties" all entered the photovoltaic module and battery market and began to expand production on a large scale, while the longer expansion cycle and depressed prices led to the expansion of the industrial chain unable to keep up with the stretched silicon production capacity, resulting in a sharp rise in silicon prices, more concentrated global silicon CR5, and enhanced leading control. There has been an obvious price increase.

Especially at the beginning of this year, the price of silicon material broke through the 110 yuan mark and exceeded market expectations, so this year Tongwei's trend is even stronger than photovoltaic giant Longji shares.

So does this situation continue?

I think this situation is somewhat similar to the trend of photovoltaic glass last year. But what we can see isPrices will not be strong after the release of silicon capacity at the end of 2021, but given the strong global demand for photovoltaic in 2022, silicon prices will remain relatively high for some time.

When the blowout time after 2022 is accompanied by the launch of more silicon production capacity, silicon whose gross profit margin is close to or even more than 60% is not sustainable. I think it is reasonable for silicon to maintain a gross profit margin of 30%.

So in the long run, I think the rise in silicon prices is not sustainable, and excessive profits can only be hedged through the release of capacity. So in this case, after 2022, companies such as Tongwei shares are more likely to have downward valuation pressure.

At present, Tongwei lacks advantages in other photovoltaic industrial chains, and the expansion of the industrial chain is not as smooth as Longji, so Tongwei shares will face the pressure of the downward valuation system and the gradual revision of profit elasticity around 2022.

04、From the dilemma of TongweiLook at the future of photovoltaic industry chain

In recent months, when reflecting on the current situation of the photovoltaic industry chain, especially the experience and lessons of Tongwei shares, I always sigh constantly.

Because, two years ago, I judged Poly Xiexin, the biggest competitor of Tongwei, that under the tremendous pressure of Tongwei, Poly Xiexin would die, thus establishing the absolute dominance of the silicon link of Tongwei shares in the world, and then the market share rose on a larger scale. Then, contrary to one's wishes, Tongwei suddenly changed its strategy in the second half of 2020, sharply raising the price of silicon and taking the lead in launching a price war.

Poly Xiexin almost sold its polysilicon business outside Xinjiang in 2019 and suddenly came back from the dead. Poly Xiexin, which was born after death, continues to challenge the giants of the industry in the fields of batteries and silicon materials through so-called technological innovation.

In this context, more and more enterprises begin to intervene in silicon material and expand production. For Tongwei, it is undoubtedly a huge negative and strategic mistake, perhaps if this step is delayed for another 1-2 years, the silicon pattern of Tongwei will be shaped.

Second,Tongwei's current dilemma actually has something to do with integration.. The pressure of integration is that its original big customers continue to become his competitors, especially those integrated enterprises that have accumulated significant advantages in the component industry.

Because I think, although the profitability of the component is not strong now, but it does not mean that the profitability is not strong in the future, the component will eventually be a king. Components are more difficult to build channels and brands, especially overseas, this kind of brand and channel construction is not easy.

So once a company like Longie has a say in customer-oriented components, it becomes easier to expand upward and swallow up the cake of specialized enterprises or even to move into strongholds like these. So, this is the trend of an industry and the future, whether you admit it or not.

The future of the photovoltaic industry chain must be the trend of price reduction, but with the increase of the concentration of the global industrial chain and the value of the brand, the downward trend will not be as great as before.. The rapidly advancing market cake will be strengthened by the continued downward price and the improvement of photovoltaic conversion efficiency, so the profitability will continue to be good for a long time, instead of looking for the marginal difference between the downward price increases in costs in the past, and now it is a process of all three upward.

So the photovoltaic industry chainThe double click of the real giants of Davis is far from over.. I have always stressed that the best part is in 2022, not now. However, you need to find the real expectation difference and king in the photovoltaic industry chain, instead of looking at the short-sighted rise in the price of so-and-so industry chain.

Therefore, the pressure of Tongwei will be greater and greater in the future. But at present, the cake is still getting bigger, and there is still time for him to resolve the difficulties. I think in a longer period of time, Tongwei still has room for development relying on its cost advantage.Whether it will be compressed or not depends on its strategy and whether the postponement of its industrial chain is smooth.

I think great enterprises must overcome such difficulties. And now investors are chasing such enterprises as Poly Xiexin, I think the game is just a game, it is best to end at the right time.