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今日大行评级 | 瑞银空翻多:上调特斯拉目标价125%,高盛看高中芯至33.3港元

Today's major bank ratings | UBS doubles: Tesla's target price is raised by 125%, Goldman Sachs expects SMIC to HK$33.3

富途資訊 ·  Mar 4, 2021 18:34  · 大行评级

Editor / Futu Information Zoe

Abnormal dog knocks on the blackboard:

UBS somersault: raise Tesla, Inc. 's target price by 125%, from US $325 to US $730, maintaining a "neutral" rating

Big Motors points out that Tesla, Inc. 's US market share may be eroded by Ford Mustang, maintaining the target price of $880and "overweight" rating.

Goldman Sachs Group raised Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's target price from HK $29.50 to HK $33.30, reiterating his "buy" rating.

Everbright Securities raised SMIC's target price by 25% from HK $32 to HK $40, with a rating of "buy".

Xiaomo lowered the target price of NIO Inc. from US $75 to US $70, maintaining its "overweight" rating.

Huatai raised the target price of the HKEx from US $465 to HK $516, maintaining the "hold" rating.

Wedbush is optimistic about the long-term prospect of FuboTV, raising its target price to $53

China Merchants (Hong Kong) maintains Hua Hong Semiconductor's "buy" rating with a target price of HK $60.

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UBS raised Tesla, Inc. 's target price by 125% to $730

On Wednesday, UBS analyst Patrick Hummel will$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The target price was raised by 125% to $730 from $325, while maintaining the rating as "neutral".

He said that as technology becomes the battlefield of the electric car raceTesla, Inc. is likely to become one of the most valuable software companies.

Hummel, a long-time sceptic of Tesla, Inc., has been neutral to Tesla, Inc. since March 2020, and until then his rating on Tesla, Inc. had been "sold" or unrated.

Hummel pointed out that like$General Motors Co (GM.US) $$Ford Motor (F.US) $Such established automakers may challenge Tesla, Inc. 's leadership in electric vehicle sales, but Tesla, Inc. remains an undisputed technology leader, especially in software. He pointed out that software will be not only the main focus in the field of electric vehicles, but also the main valuation driver.

He said that in his basic case study, he would become one of the largest and most profitable original equipment manufacturers (OEM) by 2030, with a market capitalization of about $200 billion for Tesla, Inc..

Morgan Stanley: Tesla, Inc. 's American market share may be eroded by Ford Mustang

Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a report that in February 2021, sales in the US pure electric vehicle market increased by nearly 40 per cent compared with the same period last year, including a 35 per cent year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle market sales and a 5 per cent year-on-year decline in overall car market sales. Among them, Tesla, Inc. still occupies most of the market share.

But the data showTesla, Inc. 's market share has dropped sharply to 69% from 81% in the same period last year.In this regard, the analyst believes thatThis share loss is likely to be eroded by Ford Mustang's first all-electric SUV Mustang Mach-E.

It is reported that the first version of Mustang Mach-E, which was released at the 2019 Los Angeles Auto Show, was fully booked within nine days, and the first batch of Mustang Mach-E began production and delivery at the end of 2020.

As of press time, Tesla, Inc. fell 1.41% to US $644 before trading.

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Goldman Sachs SMIC has a price of 12.9% to HK $33.3

Goldman Sachs Group released a research report that will$Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK) $The target price rose 12.9 per cent from HK $29.5 to HK $33.3, maintaining a "buy" rating and raising the group's 2021-2028 revenue forecast of 2-4 per cent and net profit forecast of 12-13 per cent.

The bank expects mature technology wafer prices to rise further in the second quarter of this year, raising Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's (00981) profit forecast. In view of the tight production capacity of the overall wafer foundry and the continued strong demand from local customers, it is believed that the average wafer selling price of the company will rise by 4.5% and 3.4% respectively in the first and second quarters of this year, and the price for the whole year will remain at the high level of the second quarter.

The bank believes that production capacity across the industry is tight and that the company still has room to optimize its product portfolio to boost profits, and expects flash memory and microprocessor suppliers to increase prices by 5% to 10% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of this year, and a further 5% in the second quarter. MCU and MOSFET are also likely to increase their prices in March and April. At the same time, the CMOS image sensor chip is also likely to increase in the second quarter.

Goldman Sachs Group said that the company's power supply chips, ultra-low power consumption and image sensor chips have been at a high level since the third quarter of 2019, and it is believed that the utilization rate for the whole year is still over 90%. As local customer demand continues, market share increases, and the production line expands, image sensor chips, microprocessors and flash memories will become the main growth drivers of the company.

Everbright Securities has a list price of 25% to HK $40 and its rating is upgraded to "buy".

Everbright Securities released a research report that the general trend of domestic substitution remains unchanged, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's production line above 10nm may smoothly expand production, raising the target price from HK $32 to HK $40, and its rating from "overweight" to "buy".

Core point of view: it is more likely to obtain mature process and some advanced process licenses; the production line above 10nm may be expanded smoothly.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's renewal of the batch procurement agreement with Asmai is conducive to the smooth expansion of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's wafer manufacturing line and, on the one hand, to the scale expansion of domestic wafer manufacturing enterprises. while actively expanding production in wafer factories, it is also good for domestic semiconductor equipment and material manufacturers. The renewal of the purchase agreement between Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and Asmai also indicates that the general trend of domestic substitution will remain unchanged. Everbright Securities believes that the proportion of sales of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers will continue to rise.

Some suppliers of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation have obtained the relevant licenses, and some equipment suppliers in the United States have resumed the supply of spare parts and on-site services.The bank believes that Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation will have a high probability of obtaining mature processes and some advanced process licenses.Mainly because:

1) from a technical point of view, the progress of each generation of advanced processes below 10nm requires more capital, technology and time period. Even if the relevant licenses of 14nm and above are liberalized, there are still big barriers to the transition from 14nm to 10nm and below.

2) from the perspective of supply chain, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation is inseparable from American equipment manufacturers and semiconductor designers. On the one hand, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation is an important customer of American An equipment company and L equipment company, and on the other hand, he is also a supplier of American Q company and B company. On the basis of the binding between the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, the industry chain company is expected to promote Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation to obtain the license of process-related equipment above 10nm.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's production line above 10nm may be expanded smoothly.It is recommended to pay attention to domestic semiconductor equipment and material manufacturers, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and related industry chain companies.

To sum up, raise the target price of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's H shares by HK $40 to a "buy" rating.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation closed down 1.98% at HK $27.25, with a total market capitalization of HK $215.176 billion.

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Small Mowei lowered NIO Inc. 's target price to $70, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

JPMorgan Chase & Co publishes a research report and will$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $Target priceDowngrade from US $75 to US $70, maintaining the "overweight" rating.. The bank is more concerned that the issuance of new shares will dilute existing shareholders than higher-than-expected performance losses and the potential risk of production constraints.

NIO Inc. 's revenue in the fourth quarter was slightly less than $1.02 billion, while Wall Street expected it to be $1.04 billion, according to the results. While the gross profit margin rose sharply to nearly 95%, the operating loss improved by only 1.5%. In addition, the adjusted loss per share was 14 cents, about twice as much as Wall Street expected. It is worth noting that although NIO Inc. has raised many times, he recorded a net loss of more than $1.42 billion in the fourth quarter, up from $1.03 billion in the same period last year.

From another perspective, NIO Inc. 's latest performance also reveals some good news. The company delivered 17353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a new quarterly delivery record, up from 12206 in the third quarter of 2020 and 8224 in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Analyst Nick Lai saidNIO Inc. Automobile performed "steadily" in the fourth quarter, which was even a "meaningful good result".. NIO Inc. 's loss per share exceeded expectations mainly related to foreign exchange losses. Despite the loss factor, NIO Inc. delivered more than 20, 000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2021 (at least 3% higher than market expectations), which made analystsI am optimistic about NIO Inc. 's long-term prospects and her unique business model centered on autopilot service.

According to Lai, NIO Inc. 's management said the company reached a full supply chain capacity of 7500 units in January, and with the further expansion of the Jianghuai automobile plant, it will be able to reach 150000 per shift and 300000 double shifts by the end of the year and early next year. After ‍ took into account the rapid growth in production in the fourth quarter and management's production expectations, the analyst predicted that NIO Inc. 's shipments would more than double this year to 90500 or more. He added thatOne of the bottlenecks that hinder NIO Inc. from achieving this goal may be the well-known shortage of automotive semiconductor chips, and another bottleneck is the limited supply of batteries.. Lai expects production to fall to 7500 vehicles a month in the second quarter, but will improve later.

Assuming production of 20, 000 vehicles in the first quarter and 22500 in the second quarter, NIO Inc. needs to produce another 48000 cars in the second half of the year to meet his annual production target, meaning an average of 8000 vehicles per month, the analyst said.In the absence of supply chain problems, NIO Inc. has a good chance of achieving his annual production target.

As of press time, NIO Inc. fell 3.76% to US $39.97 before trading.

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Huatai is bullish on HKEx to HK $516

Huatai issued a research report to maintain$Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) $The "hold" rating was raised by 11 per cent to HK $516.

The bank raised its net profit forecast for 2021-23 by 10%, 13% and 17% respectively to reflect:

1) A more optimistic view of market turnover and two-way capital flows

2) increase the forecast of listing fee and depository fee

3) the rate of return on net investment may decline this year. It is expected to continue its strong net profit growth momentum in the first half of this year, which will support the current valuation.

According to the report, since the beginning of this year, the average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks has reached a new high of HK $240 billion, thanks in part to more active southbound trading. The average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks has tripled from 2020 to HK $36.2 billion. Southward capital inflows have reached 57 per cent of the total inflows in 2020, while the average daily turnover of mainland shares has increased by 52 per cent compared with the whole of last year.

The bank believes thatThe increase in stamp duty from August 1 will have a limited impact on market turnover.At the same time, after southbound capital inflows slowed from their January-February peakThe average daily turnover of securities for the whole year is expected to reach 200 billion Hong Kong dollars.The secondary listing of large new economy companies and US-listed US-listed Chinese stocks in Hong Kong will support the listing fee income. The growing southbound / northbound portfolio is expected to drive high growth in portfolio fee income.

Interest income from cash and bank deposits accounted for 92 per cent of HKEx's net investment income in 2020, which usually follows Hong Kong's short-term interest rates, the report said. Three-month HIBOR began to decline rapidly at the beginning of the year, which may put further pressure on 1H21's return on investment / investment income.

On the other hand, a sharp rise in US 10-year Treasury yields could put pressure on HKEx's high valuations. Although the correction in share prices since February 24 has temporarily eased valuation pressure, the bank believes it still needs to be wary of further increases in risk-free interest rates.

HKEx closed down 3 per cent at HK $483, with a total market capitalization of HK $612.365 billion.

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Wedbush is bullish on FuboTV to $53

$fuboTV Inc. (FUBO.US) $Investors were dissatisfied with the fourth-quarter results, which showed that the company was still at a loss. The company lost $2.47 a share, well above Wall Street's expectations of a loss of 73 cents a share. Although some pessimists think the company is unprofitable, Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush, believes that the bright spot remains.And reiterated its "outperform" rating, raising its target price from $50 to $53.

In the fourth quarter, FuboTV's revenue was $105.07 million, higher than the previously reported range of $94 million to $98 million and $8.53 million higher than expected. By the end of 2020, the number of paid subscribers had reached 547880, up from the previous guidance of 545000 and up 73 per cent from a year earlier. Advertising revenue also rose 150 per cent year-on-year to $13 million. Although the company expects the number of Q1 users to decline seasonally this year, it expects to reach 760000 to 770000 paying users for the whole year.

It is reported that FuboTV will integrate its sports betting business into its platform later this year, launching free betting apps in the third quarter and sportsbook in the fourth quarter.

Pachter said it was optimistic about the company's prospects because of factors such as the strong growth of advertising ARPU last year and the completion of the acquisition of Vigtory, as the company raised its revenue guidance for the year. He believes that the launch of sportsbook will not generate much revenue in the short term, but the free game has the potential to increase the company's brand awareness and eventually become a catalyst to attract subscribers.

As of press time, Fubo TV was down 0.67% at $33.91.

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China Merchants (Hong Kong): maintain Hua Hong Semiconductor's "buy" rating with a target price of HK $60

China Merchants (Hong Kong) released a research report saying that for$Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) $Maintain a positive view as revenue and profit margin growth will continue to be driven by multiple benefitsMaintain its "buy" rating with a target price of HK $60

According to the report, the company's share price fell more than 20% after peaking in mid-February.This may cause investors to settle at a loss as a result of the sale of Tsinghua Hong shares by investors in Nippon Electric Appliances.. The recent news that Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation has been licensed for semiconductor equipment will also attract investors to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation. In view of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's low valuation, he believes that fundamentals remain good, and if the stock price continues to be revised, it will create a good buying opportunity for investors.

The bank said the company's stock price was under pressure in recent days because of its important IGBT (insulated gate bipolar transistor) customers$Starr semiconductor (603290.SH) $It has previously announced plans to increase its own production capacity. StarSemiconductor's expansion of its own IGBT production capacity has raised concerns among investors about industrial supply growth and potential order losses in Huahong.

However, the bank believes that StarSemiconductor's new IGBT capacity will be used to produce high-voltage (3300V) chips, which are currently supplied by overseas contract manufacturers. The product development and order arrangement of Starr Semiconductor in Huahong Wuxi Plant remains unchanged. The production capacity of the Wuxi plant has climbed smoothly and is expected to reach 35-40 million films per month in 2021 and 65000 tablets per month by the end of the year. Due to strong industry demand, Huahong's 8-inch fab is expected to remain fully loaded, driving sales average prices and profit margins to rise gradually in 2021.

Hua Hong Semiconductor closed down 9.85% at HK $45.75, with a total market capitalization of HK $59.439 billion.

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