Author: Zhang Yuna

Today, there is a sharp correction in both the A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market.

In fact, this round of adjustment is universal around the world, with high-valued domestic heavyweight stocks and overseas technology stocks falling to varying degrees, and the higher-than-expected rise in long-end interest rates on overseas US debt may be the fuse.

Where is the opportunity in the event of a collapse? After trading, a number of domestic head public offering funds gave the latest research and judgment to Futu Information. These institutions include: Boshi Fund, Dacheng Fund, Fu Rong Fund, Chuang Jin Hexin Fund, Huaxia Fund, Wells Fargo Fund, Ping an Fund, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund, Warburg Fund (regardless of ranking).

It is worth noting that these institutions have different views, most of them are optimistic about pro-cyclical, while others think that technology stocks are worth laying out.

Let's look down.

The market plunged sharply

Today, major stock indexes in the market have undergone a major adjustment. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 5.84% and the Hang Seng Index fell 2.15% to 29236.79 points. Among them, Meituan and JD Health fell by more than 8%, and Kuaishou Technology fell by more than 5%.

In terms of A-shares, the three major stock indexes fell across the board, with the Prev falling more than 2 per cent and the gem index falling more than 5 per cent at one point. By the close, the Prev index was down 2.05 per cent at 3503.49, the Shenzhen Composite Index was down 3.46 per cent at 14416.10, and the gem index was down 4.87 per cent at 2851.87. The total transaction between the two cities is 972 billion yuan.

There are two main reasons for the sharp fall in the market.

From the point of view of various head public offerings, there are several main reasons for today's sharp fall in the market:First, the sharp fall in US stocks caused by the continuous rise in 10-year US bond yields is transmitted to the domestic market; second, changes have taken place in the microstructure of the domestic stock market.

Lang Yicheng, director of the research department of Furong Foundation, explained thatThe core reason for the sharp decline in the market was that the sharp fall in US stocks triggered by the continued rise in 10-year US bond yields (up 9 basis points at 1.486 per cent on March 3) was transmitted to A shares.

Looking back at history, the rise in long-end interest rates in the United States does not mean a sharp fall in the stock market, because the rise in interest rates on US bonds often indicates economic recovery and inflation expectations. Although the valuation of US stocks will be hit by rising interest rates in the short term, however, as the economy picks up and corporate profits pick up, the molecular segment will form a positive driver.

Judging from the experience of domestic economic recovery after this round of epidemic, the macro-economy is more of a weak recovery, so the core reason for the sharp decline in core assets represented by US technology stocks and A-share industry leaders is that the market is worried that the decline in valuation after the end of "water release expectations" is greater than the rebound in profits.

Dacheng Fund believes that the reason for the sharp decline is that the microstructure of A shares has deteriorated, and the strong convergence of investors in trading has led to abnormal trading.「Crowded」。In the case of the most optimistic participants in the market have entered, the lack of counterparties caused a significant reversal in the market, power equipment, new energy, food and beverage and other early-stage hugging industry fell the most today.

Dacheng Fund further pointed out that the deterioration of A-share microstructure is often accompanied by the switching of market style, or even bull-bear conversion. Among the four times of microstructure deterioration in history, the transition from bull market to bear market occurred in November 2007 and February 2018, the transition from bear to bull occurred in October 2008, and the style switch occurred in January 2015. Dacheng fund analysis, in view of the current three elements of DDM (namely, liquidity, corporate earnings and risk appetite) has not significantly deteriorated, it is expected that the deterioration of the microstructure will bring market style switching.

How to treat the adjustment of white horse stock?

With regard to the adjustment of White Horse shares, the views of Ping an Fund are as follows:

First, the White Horse experienced a relatively large increase in the previous period, the valuation entered a relatively high level in history, and investors' positions were too concentrated. Compared with last year and the year before last, instability itself is gradually accumulating.

Second, with the popularity of vaccines and the effective control of the epidemic, the global economy is beginning to gradually enter the path of recovery, which will lead to a rise in real interest rates and become the "fuse" of the current blue-chip white horse pullback.

Third, blue-chip white horse stocks are highly valued by the market, the core reason is that the company's performance is growing steadily, while interest rates remain low.

After the foreign capital enters the market, investors' pricing for such assets has changed from the previous PEG pricing model to the DCF pricing model, and in the DCF pricing model, the real interest rate has an important impact on the stock price, so with this round of real interest rates turning upwards, the original valuation logic has been destroyed, and it is reasonable for some profitable funds to choose profit-taking.

What will you buy next? A number of institutions have different views.

Standing in the present, how can we lay out the layout next? After trading, a number of institutions gave the latest judgment.

Huaxia Fund:We propose to focus on the following industries throughout the year:Smart cars, military industry, new energy vehicles, tax exemption.

Security Fund:Global vaccination has accelerated, the epidemic has been gradually brought under control, US $1.9 trillion stimulus is imminent, Sino-US inventory replenishment and real estate cycle superposition are conducive to the sustainability of this round of economic recovery, and superimposed liquidity will not tighten too quickly in the short term.The fundamentals of the pro-cyclical plate are expected to continue for a long time.

Dacheng Fund:Hot stocks have been fully participated by the most optimistic investors, the early style is not sustainable, the rising structure will further spread in the future, and it is recommended to lay out industries where trading is not "crowded" and logic is improved. The current A-share market is partially overvalued but not overvalued as a whole. It is recommended to pay attention to the pro-cyclical and small and medium-sized companies' earnings under the premise of economic repair and deterministic rise.Chemical, semiconductor and other pro-cyclical and technology industries, as well as banking, insurance and other economic inflection points confirmed the undervalued low-configuration large financial sector.

Boshi Fund:Focus on four sectors, first, non-ferrous: non-ferrous is a global pricing variety, under the trend of weak US dollar and global liquidity easing, non-ferrous trading in the first quarter still has bottom value.

Second, the chemical industry: the overseas oil price center rises, according to the current downstream stock feedback, the price center goes up further after the beginning of spring. It is recommended to focus on participating in the industry leaders with long-term α logic and the companies that rebound at the bottom of the large cycle.

Third, banks: "tight credit + tight money" stage, the banking sector has performed well in the past.

Fourth, spirit: spirit plate after the festival there is a substantial correction, in view of the relatively high prosperity of the plate, you can choose the layout of bargain hunting.

Rich countries Fund:In style, the valuation is low in the pro-cyclical direction and is expected to receive capital inflows thanks to improved fundamentals. At the same time, the medium-and long-term allocation value of core assets should not be denied just because of a large short-term decline.

Investment Promotion Fund:We continue to pay attention to the deep macroeconomic recovery and the opportunities for pro-cyclical varieties of improved prosperity, such as financial real estate and resource stocks; for high-boom industries such as new energy and spirits, the relevant underlying valuations are overdrawn to a certain extent and still need to be avoided before the valuation is adjusted to a reasonable level; for some small and medium-sized growth stocks and technology stocks with large adjustments, they may have entered the medium-term layout stage.

Warburg Fund:From the perspective of specific industry configuration, the main line of medium-term market trading is still the cyclical recovery of the economy, and the financial pro-cycle with low valuation benefits the most. First of all, bancassurance still has a good allocation value. With the economic recovery, the asset quality of banks is gradually improved, and the upward interest rate is also conducive to the rebound of interest spreads of bank stocks, while insurance assets benefit from the rise of interest rates and blue-chip stocks. Premium growth has also shown an obvious improvement trend. In addition, with the replenishment of inventories at home and abroad for more than half a year and the upward trend of the US real estate cycleNon-ferrous, chemical and other pro-cyclical varieties may still have a good performance.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund:In the follow-up, under the pro-cyclical logic, the allocation opportunities of finance, cycle and optional consumption should be paid more attention to; in addition, the mistakenly killed performance expectations in military industry and science and technology stocks may also bring better investment opportunities.

What is worth noting is that Zhou Zhimin, a fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, has a different view of future opportunities from the previous institutions: he is not optimistic about pro-cycle, but optimistic about technology.

Zhou Zhimin said, "for the technology industry, compared with the clustered assets that just began to fall, the technology sector has fallen for almost a year, and the timing and magnitude of the adjustment are relatively significant in each sector, and the attention has also dropped to a relatively low position. When the group switched to the bottom at the beginning of the year, the technology sector had already rehearsed the role of the beneficiaries. However, switching will not be achieved overnight, not to mention that it is difficult to be alone in the current systematic environment.

But we believe that if the cause of the fall is only valuation (expensive) and financial factors, then the technology sector that is the first to adjust is likely to stabilize first. even in the recent market adjustment, we have also seen a number of high-level technology stocks falling while a number of electronics, computers, and communications at the bottom 20 or 30 times PE are rising.Looking further, after the release of systemic risk in the market, investors begin to look up again, so the technology imagination space superimposes good performance growth (at least the first half of this year should be good) or may bring good upward flexibility. "

For more institutional investment views, please pay attention to the bullpen."Little Financial Kitchen"If you have any ideas, you are welcome to communicate at any time.