Overview of events

On March 3, Beibu Gulf Port released its throughput figures for February:

In February, Beibu Gulf Port completed cargo throughput of 18.0687 million tons, + 12.34% year-on-year, container throughput of 351300 TEUs, and + 47.54% year-on-year.

From January to February, Beibu Gulf Port completed a total cargo throughput of 40.0609 million tons, + 12.30% year-on-year, and container throughput of 819500 TEUs, a total of + 41.69% compared with the same period last year.

In the first two months of 2021, the throughput of Beibu Gulf Port can still grow significantly on the basis of a high base in the same period last year, reflecting the strong growth vitality of Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and other central and western regions and Beibu Gulf Port under the background of "three structural adjustments", and the investment logic continues to verify.

The dry bulk cargo of the Beibu Gulf Port is mainly coal, ore and other domestic demand goods, and the container foreign trade routes are mainly near-ocean routes such as ASEAN, Japan and South Korea. Due to the strong domestic demand in the central and western regions, the throughput of the Beibu Gulf Port continued to grow rapidly under the influence of the epidemic in February 2020, and the growth rates of cargo throughput and container throughput were + 18.05% and 27.63% respectively. In the same period, the national port cargo throughput and container throughput grew by-5.9% and 10.5% respectively over the same period last year.

We believe that the rapid growth of the throughput of the Beibu Gulf Port in the first two months of 2021 is not due to the base effect, but a true reflection of the strong growth vitality of the central and western regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and the Beibu Gulf Port.

The Beibu Gulf Port, which continues to grow rapidly, became one of the top 10 ports in the country in January 2021.

According to the national port throughput data released by the Ministry of Communications in January 2021, the cargo throughput of Beibuwan Port ranked 10th in the country in January, and the container throughput ranked ninth in the country, ranking 5 and 2 places higher than that in 2020, respectively. It reflects the economic development of the central and western regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing and Sichuan, as well as the structural advantages of Beibu Gulf Port.

The outline of the National Comprehensive three-dimensional Transportation Network clearly lists Beibu Gulf Port as an international hub seaport together with 10 ports such as Shanghai Port, Shenzhen Port and Guangzhou Port.

On February 24, 2021, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the outline of the National Comprehensive three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning. It is clearly proposed to "give full play to the role of international hub seaports such as Shanghai Port, Dalian Port, Tianjin Port, Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port, Xiamen Port, Shenzhen Port, Guangzhou Port, Beibu Gulf Port and Yangpu Port".

Investment suggestion: we believe that the Beibu Gulf Port will continue to benefit from the trade development between China and ASEAN under the background of the structural adjustment of domestic heavy chemical industry, southwest transportation and international division of labor on the basis of comparing the low throughput base of other bay areas at present. It is expected that the compound annual growth rate of 15-20% in the next five years is expected, and the stock price is significantly undervalued at less than 15 times the previous PE valuation. It has rare investment value.

We maintain the profit forecast of the company's return net profit for 2020-22, which is 11.7 yuan 14.5 yuan / 1.74 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the corresponding EPS of 0.72 yuan 0.89 yuan 1.07 yuan, and according to the closing price of 9.99 yuan per share on March 3, 2021, the corresponding PE is 13.94max 11.28 times. We reaffirm the company's target price of 21.6 yuan per share and reiterate its "buy" rating.

Risk hint

The macroeconomic environment may decline more than expected; the duration of the epidemic; the short-term announcement of the Beibu Gulf Port convertible bond conversion stock price has not yet been determined; the company's per ton cargo income may fluctuate in the short term.