Key elements of the report
The company is a new energy enterprise integrating photovoltaic equipment, silicon wafer manufacturing and terminal power stations. After single polycrystal route changes, the company has seized the key opportunities to enter the wafer manufacturing process on a large scale. With the advantages of backwardness, equipment, cost and technology, it is expected to become one of the three giants of third-party wafer manufacturers.
Main points of investment:
The pattern of silicon wafer is excellent, the historical burden is small, and Jingyun Tong comes later: under the background of carbon neutralization, the long-term growth of photovoltaic installation is certain, and it is expected that in 21 years of photovoltaic 160GW, the production capacity of downstream battery wafers is much larger than that of silicon wafers. Silicon wafer links can transfer silicon materials to increase costs and maintain high profits. Among the 7GW production capacity, there are 6GW in 166and 1GW in 210, and the subsequent Wuhai Phase II 10GW and Leshan Phase I and Phase II 24GW production capacity are all 210. compared with competitors, the historical burden is less and the advantage of backwardness is significant. The production is greatly expanded at the critical time of technical route and size convergence of silicon wafers. It is expected that with Leshan Phase I and Wuhai Phase II in the second half of 21 years and Leshan Phase II in 22 years, the company's production capacity is expected to reach 25 / 40GW by the end of 21 / 22, and annual shipments are expected to reach 14 / 33GW.
The company makes use of the advantages of single crystal furnace technology to complete the research and development of 1600 single crystal furnace in 20 years, which can draw 12-inch silicon rods, up to 40 inches of heat field, 1 ton per furnace, reserved CCZ interface, using CCD technology to improve the level of equipment automation and intelligence, and greatly reduce labor costs. In August 2020, the 210 slicer was independently developed and trial production was completed, and mass supply was achieved at the beginning of the 21st century. The self-produced single crystal furnace is expected to reduce silicon wafer investment by 25%, and the supply is guaranteed.
The trinity of cost, quality and technology shows the advantages of third-party suppliers: in terms of cost, the non-silicon cost of the company's M6 silicon wafer has been reduced to 7 wool / wafer, close to the leading cost level in the industry, and there is still room for 5 cents / wafer reduction after argon recovery in the future. In terms of quality, the carbon and oxygen impurity content and resistivity of the company's silicon wafers are in the leading level in the industry. In terms of technology, the company has laid out CCZ technology in advance and is expected to continue to take the lead in the iterative process of the next generation of silicon wafer technology. With the release of 33GW capacity, as a third-party wafer leader, under the background of the integration of the leader and the gradual distance of the third-party battery customers, it is expected to undertake the third-party battery customers and the market share is expected to expand.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's 20-22 operating income is expected to be 3.978 billion yuan, respectively, and the parent net profit is 4.28 million yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS0.18/0.49/0.88 yuan per share. Based on the company's leading position in the third-party silicon wafer supplier, the company is given a buy rating for the first time. It is estimated that the 21-year net profit of silicon wafer, high-end equipment and power plant sector will be 675max, 0.23max, 464 million respectively. According to the three major business PE is 35-45-20 times, corresponding to the six-month market capitalization of 33.94 billion, the target price of 14.06yuan per share.
Risk factors: the production speed of new capacity is not as fast as expected, the profitability of 210 silicon wafer is not as expected, the price of silicon wafer is not as expected, and the risk of technological change.
