DBS Hong Kong real estate industry analysis Qiu Zhuowen pointed out when attending the online conference that last year's maintenance was stable, with a drop of about 1% for the whole year, which was different from the previous downside period, except that the first-hand transaction was affected by social distance measures, and the turnover decreased year by year. He was of the view that there was a strong demand last year, which did not fall sharply compared with the previous downward period, and that new developments in the large-scale market were slow, mainly due to the reduction of the loan-to-value requirement in the first installment of the loan-to-value limit.

He pointed out that last year, the luxury market was very poor, mainly because the families were unable to come to Hong Kong after the closure, so they only relied on the support of local tycoons, which showed that they were in favor of ordinary housing. He expects the low-interest environment to continue, the ability of business executives to be strong, and support for the market in the face of a lack of new supply, and it is expected that the market will rise and fall by 5% this year. He thinks that in the future, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the increase in the number of immigrants will lead to current sales in the second-hand market.

As for the conversion of Kaide's commercial land to residential land in the political calculation plan, he is the head of housing in the commercial property investment period. under the uncertain economic environment, the developer may not be willing to pay the highland for the long-term investment, coupled with the fact that the land is separated from the land station, it is not ideal to be used as commercial land, so it is expected that residential use will be better for land value.

In terms of employment, he pointed out that the vacancy rate in the central region rose to a 20-year high of 7.5% last year, and the rent fell by 22-23% last year, because the rent has not yet bottomed out, the economy is uncertain, and there are also difficulties in renting, so rents are expected to continue to decline by 5-10% this year.

The retail market improved in the second half of last year, but social isolation measures still have a big impact on the catering industry. It is believed that with the launch of the vaccine, it is expected that mobile travel will come to Hong Kong for consumption. However, after mainland tourists buy luxury goods in the mainland, spending in Hong Kong will return to pre-epidemic levels. He expects retail rents to remain flat this year after rents fell by more than 30% last year, but they will continue to rent again. On the other hand, the Bank is fond of New World Development (00017.HK) in its real estate stocks, believing that apart from the ideal conditions, the company has also completed new projects in other places, while rent collectors prefer Hang Lung Land (00101.HK) and Swire Swire (00019.HK), which have a lot of customers in the mainland.