Investment suggestion
Recently, the new energy vehicle sector fluctuates greatly. We review the core logic of the growth of new energy vehicles in 2020, and analyze the new highlights and opportunities in the industry in 2021. In the long run, we believe that high-quality supply continues to drive the release of C-end demand, the permeability of new energy vehicles has a broad space to improve, and the slope is accelerated.
In terms of investment targets, the whole vehicle is in the off-season in the first quarter, and the landing of new models will be accelerated near 2022. High-quality supply is recommended to represent car companies.Including NIO Inc. Automobile and Li Auto Inc.。
In terms of spare parts, it is recommended to pay attention to the subdivision leaders in Tesla, Inc. and MEB industry chain, includingSanhua Intelligence Control, Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, Minshi Group, Fuyao Glass Industry Group.
In terms of intelligence, it is recommended to pay attention toBethel (uncovered), Paolon (uncovered)。
Reasons
2Sales volume in 2010: first suppress and then rise, the market receives the baton, and the volume is released at both ends.
In 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles in China went out of the trend of first suppressing and then rising. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, sales activities stagnated for a time. The second quarter gradually returned to the level of the same period in 2018-2019. In the second half of the year, the monthly sales of new energy vehicles increased month on month, and the rate reached an all-time high. In terms of driving force, the sales of new energy vehicles in China have shifted from policy subsidy to supply-side improvement to stimulate the release of the C-end market. Among them, the B-class domestic Tesla, Inc. Model 3 and A00-class Wuling Hongguang mini EV contributed to the C-end market sales, driving the percentage of B-class sales increased by 3.5 ppt 4Q20 in 2020 compared with the same period last year. 10ppt.
Demand structure: the regional distribution is stable and the proportion of operation is decreasing.
In 2020, among the new energy vehicles in China, pure electric and car models are still the mainstream; the regional pattern of sales of new energy vehicles is relatively stable, with North, Guangzhou and Zhejiang firmly in the forefront, and the share of provinces and cities other than CR5 has steadily increased from 45% of 1Q20 to 53% of 4Q20. Among the new forces of car building, Tesla, Inc. and XPeng Inc. account for a relatively high proportion of sales in the restricted area, while NIO Inc. and ideal account for a relatively low proportion. In terms of demand structure, the proportion of individual users of new energy vehicles increased from 46 per cent in 2019 to 72 per cent in 2020, while the proportion of operating vehicles decreased significantly compared with 2019 20ppt.
Stock market performance: an epic performance in 2020.
The new energy sector stock market showed a bright performance in 2020. Our new energy vehicle sector index (including NIO Inc., Tesla, Inc. and BYD A) rose 80.1% for the whole year, and our new energy parts index closed up 115% a year. In the same period, Shanghai and Shenzhen rose only 27%. We believe that the bright performance of the new energy vehicle industry chain in the stock market is the result of the reversal of industry fundamentals and the resonance of investment sentiment and liquidity.
2021 Prospect: high-quality supply continues to be the main driving force, and the accelerated integration of smart cars and electric vehicles.
In 2021, a number of new energy and new models will be listed one after another, forming a situation of independent and foreign-funded car companies, new and old car companies going hand in hand. Tesla, Inc., XPeng Inc. and other emerging car companies plan to enrich the lineup of models and segment market coverage in 2021. A number of independent car companies, such as SAIC and Dongfeng, have set up separate electric vehicle subsidiaries and brands in order to travel light in the new era of smart electric vehicles and re-take the lead in experiencing more products, higher-end brands and more agile systems. The "turnaround" of traditional foreign-funded car companies facing new energy is also beginning to show results. From a macro point of view, the energy revolution and the scientific and technological revolution are promoted at the same time, and converge in the automobile industry. Under the multiple pressures of industrial change and commercial competition, smart cars and electric vehicles accelerate the integration. Smart EV (intelligent electric vehicles) will become the core product that will dominate the future industry, and high-level self-driving will be the first to land on new energy vehicles.
Profit forecast and valuation
Keep the above earnings forecasts and valuations unchanged.
Risk
Short-term sales of new energy vehicles are not as expected, and the progress of new cars on the market is not as expected.
Text
2020 sales volume: first suppress and then rise, the market receives the baton, and the volume at both ends
In 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles in China have gone out of the trend of first suppressing and then rising. Affected by the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, sales activities stagnated for a time. It gradually returned to the level of the same period in 2018-2019 in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, the monthly sales of new energy vehicles increased month on month, and the rate reached an all-time high.
We believe that the policies of new energy vehicles going to the countryside and promoting consumption in various places will promote sales in the second half of 2020 to a certain extent, but the main influencing factor is the improvement of the supply side to stimulate the release of the C-end market. For example, Tesla, Inc. Model 3 achieved sales of 138000 vehicles in 2020, with a single model contributing 10% to industry sales and 14% to pure electric passenger vehicles.
Chart: monthly sales of new energy vehicles: sales first declined and then rose in 2020, and began to reach an all-time high in the second half of the year.
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation (58.200, 0.0000, 0.005%) Research Department
Chart: monthly sales of new energy vehicles: in the second half of 2020, the effects of subsidies and the epidemic dissipated, and sales climbed steeply.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: in 2020, the villain demand for new energy vehicles in China has increased significantly compared with 2019, indicating that the market-oriented C-end demand has become the main body.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: the proportion of class B and A00 models increased in 2020: received the influence of Tesla, Inc. Model 3 and Wuling Hongguang mini EV respectively
Source: Federation of passengers, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: the proportion of sales of pure electric passenger vehicles by class: the proportion of class B will increase in 2020, and the proportion of 4Q20 A00 will continue to increase.
Source: Federation of passengers, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: the increase in the proportion of A00 sales began in August, synchronized with the listing of Wuling Hongguang mini EV
Source: Federation of passengers, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: top 10 sales of Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers in 2020
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: the sales ranking of pure electric passenger cars in 2020
Source: Federation of passengers, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: ranking of plug-in hybrid passenger cars in 2020
Source: Federation of passengers, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: pure electric passenger cars in 2020, manufacturer's sales and proportion
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: plug-in hybrid passenger cars in 2020, manufacturer's sales and share
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: pure electric bus in 2020, manufacturer's sales and proportion
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: pure electric trucks in 2020, manufacturer's sales and proportion
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Demand structure: the regional distribution is stable and the proportion of operation decreases
Pure electric and car models are still mainstream. From the sales structure divided by power form, from 2015 to 2020, the sales structure of new energy vehicles is relatively stable, and the share of pure electric new energy vehicles has always maintained more than 70%. Although the proportion of cars shows a downward trend, its share is still more than 65%.
Chart: sales structure of new energy vehicles, in the form of power
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: passenger car demand by model: cars are still the mainstream
Source: Federation of passengers, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Regional distribution: in the fourth quarter of 2020, the CR5 pattern of provinces and cities is the same as that of the same period in 2019, accounting for 47%. Guangdong Province, Zhejiang Province, Beijing, Henan Province and Shandong Province ranked 1st to 5th respectively, accounting for 15%, 10%, 8%, 7% and 7% of the insurance volume of new energy vehicles, respectively. In 2020, North, Guangzhou and Zhejiang ranked firmly in the forefront, and the proportion of other provinces and cities increased from 1Q45% to 4Q53%.
Chart: in the fourth quarter of 2020, the proportion of CR5 insurance in provinces and cities was 47%, which was the same as the same period last year.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: the top five sales places of new energy vehicles in 2020 are basically stable, while the proportion of sales of new energy vehicles in other provinces and cities has increased steadily.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
In the fourth quarter of 2020, pure electric vehicles accounted for 84% of China's new energy, up slightly from the third quarter of 2020. Among them, the proportion of pure electric in non-restricted areas is 88%, which is higher than 76% in restricted areas. The proportion of pure electric power is higher in Guangxi, Beijing, Shanxi, Anhui, Shandong and other provinces and cities. Among the provinces and cities, the proportion of non-operating vehicles (individual and unit users) is relatively high in Guangxi, Shanghai, Henan, Hubei, Shandong and other regions.
Chart: in the fourth quarter, pure electric is still the main source of new energy in China, with operating vehicles accounting for 16%.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
In 2020, pure electric vehicles accounted for 81% of the new energy in China. Among them, the proportion of pure electric in non-restricted areas is 84%, which is higher than 75% in restricted areas. The proportion of pure electric is higher in Guangxi, Beijing, Shanxi, Anhui, Henan and other provinces and cities. Among the provinces and cities, the proportion of non-operating vehicles (individual and unit users) is higher in Guangxi, Hebei, Henan, Beijing, Shanghai and other regions.
Chart: in 2020, pure electricity was the main source of new energy vehicles in China, accounting for 16% of the total operation.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: the proportion of individual users of new energy vehicles continued to remain above 70% in the fourth quarter, a sharp increase in 20ppt compared with the same period last year.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: sales of new energy vehicles in restricted / unrestricted areas in the fourth quarter are the same as those in the third quarter.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: independent brands in 2020, BYD and BAIC new energy sales are evenly distributed, other car companies still have regional characteristics
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: in 2020, joint venture new energy vehicles are more acceptable in non-restricted areas.
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: sales of new car-building forces in restricted areas in 2020: Tesla, Inc. and XPeng Inc. account for relatively high sales in restricted areas, while NIO Inc. and ideal account for relatively low.
Note: Li Auto Inc. 's existing models are temporarily unable to get new energy license concessions in Beijing. Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: quarterly sales of new forces in car building
Source: Bancassurance Regulatory Commission, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Stock market review: interpretation of epic market
In 2020, the main sectors and individual stocks of the new energy vehicle industry chain significantly outperformed the market (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300). Among them, the new energy vehicle sector (including NIO Inc., Tesla, Inc., BYD), an annual increase of 80.1%, can be described as an interpretation of the "epic" market.
New Energy components sector (including Sanhua Intelligence Control (25.050, 0.000.00%), Silverwheel (10.980, 0.000.00%), Clay Motor, Autejia (3.540, 0.000.00%), Top Group (39.180, 0.000.00%), Xinquan (30.860, 0.000.00%), Gunsheng Electronics (21.690, 0.00%) 0.00%), Huayu Motor (25.620, 0.0000%)) closed up 115% in one year. The power battery index (884963.WI) rose 124% for the whole year, and the lithium ore index (884785.WI) rose 94% for the whole year, while Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 27% over the same period.
We believe that the bright performance of the new energy vehicle industry chain in the stock market is the result of the reversal of industry fundamentals and the resonance of investment sentiment and liquidity. Among them, the launch of the new energy vehicle sector began in April after the end of the global market liquidity crisis, NIO Inc. 's plight reversed and Tesla, Inc. 's valuation contributed most of the benefits. The performance of the upper reaches of components and power batteries began with the fundamentals and emotional resonance brought about by the continued higher-than-expected sales of new energy vehicles in the middle of the year.
Chart: performance of various sectors of the new energy vehicle industry chain in 2020
Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Note: new energy complete vehicle plate includes: NIO Inc. NIO.N, Tesla, Inc. TSLA.O, BYD 003594.SZ, etc.; new energy parts plate includes: Sanhua Intelligent Control 002050.SZ, Silverwheel 002126.SZ, Clay Motor 603960.SH, Aotejia 002239.SZ, Top Group 601689.SH, Xinquan 603179.SH, Chunsheng Electronics 600699.SH, Huayu Automobile 600714.SH, etc.
Chart: performance of key stocks in the industry chain of new energy vehicles in 2020
Source: Wande Information, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
2021 Prospect: high-quality supply continues to be the main driving force, and the accelerated integration of smart vehicles and electric vehicles
New and old car companies go hand in hand, and 2021 continues to be a big year for the supply of new cars. In 2021, a number of new energy and new models will be listed one after another, forming a situation of independent and foreign-funded car companies, new and old car companies going hand in hand. Represented by Tesla, Inc. Model Y, New Year's Day fired the "first shot" in 2021. Emerging car companies such as XPeng Inc., Weima and Chinese Express plan to accelerate development in 2021 and launch new cars to enrich the lineup and market coverage. Head independent car companies such as SAIC, Geely and Great Wall have also taken positive actions, and a number of car companies have set up separate electric vehicle subsidiaries and brands in order to be light in the new era of intelligent electric vehicles and to experience more products, higher-end brands and more agile system to take the lead. The models launched include SAIC Zhiji IM, Geely Lecke Zero, Great Wall WEY Mocha, Guangzhou Automobile Eian Aion Y, BAIC Polar Fox α S, Donglantu Free and so on. The "turnaround" of traditional foreign car companies facing new energy is beginning to show results. Volkswagen ID series, Mercedes-Benz EQ series and BMW I series will also be listed in 2021, bringing more choices for consumers.
Chart: key new energy and new models in 2021
Source: Autohome Inc, IHS, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
With the accelerated integration of smart cars and electric vehicles, high-level self-driving will be the first to land on new energy models. In the process of the conversion of automobile power form from traditional fuel to electric power, the automobile power system and hardware platform have undergone the biggest structural transformation in the industry in the past decades. At the same time, the rise of emerging technology industries such as artificial intelligence and the Internet this year will empower intelligent cars. From a macro point of view, the energy revolution and the scientific and technological revolution are promoted at the same time, and converge in the automobile industry. Under the multiple pressures of industrial change and commercial competition, smart cars and electric vehicles accelerate the integration. Smart EV (intelligent electric vehicles) will become the core product that will dominate the future industry, and high-level self-driving will be the first to land on new energy vehicles.
The intelligent speed of the car is increased, and the hardware comes first. At present, the concept of intelligent driving is increasingly deep into the minds of end consumers, closed road automatic cruise to achieve landing, high-level autopilot in the technical end is also on the eve of breakthrough, is expected to be the first to land in specific scenes in recent years. NIO Inc. Automobile released its autopilot NAD (Nio Autonomous Driving) system in January 2021. Point-to-point autopilot can be gradually realized in high-speed, urban, parking, power-up and other scenarios. In the perceptual layer, the Aquila supersensitive system is equipped with 33 high-performance sensing hardware and is an industry leader in lidar. At the computing level, the supercomputing platform Adam is equipped with four NVIDIA Orin chips with computing power as high as 1016Tops. According to the company, NAD's hardware system will be standard on the latest model ET7. We believe that NIO Inc. ET7 will become a "trumpet player", blowing a new round of automobile intelligent hardware competition.
Chart: penetration forecast for all levels of autopilot
Source: technology Roadmap 2. 0, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
It is predicted that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China will exceed 1.8 million and that of new energy vehicles will exceed 2 million in 2021. We believe that the upward momentum of the new energy vehicle market will continue to extend to 2021, of which the launch of high-quality models is the main driving force. Quantitatively, those who make a greater marginal contribution to the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 are: Tesla, Inc. Model Y, which is expected to contribute 200000 vehicles in increment; Wuling mini EV and other walking models that continue to sell well, with an estimated contribution of 200000 vehicles; hot-selling models such as BYD Han and car-building new forces, which are expected to contribute more than 100000 vehicles; and Volkswagen MEB mass production, which is expected to contribute 100000 vehicles. In addition, with the global epidemic receding, the demand for new energy commercial vehicles is expected to warm up at the same time.
Chart: sales and penetration of new energy vehicles in China (including forecast)
Source: China Automobile Association, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
Chart: global sales and forecast of new energy vehicles
Source: China Automobile Association, Marklines, China International Capital Corporation Research Department
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