Original title: insight into the trend of foreign exchange market from 2021 to 2022, an overview of the latest forecasts of the four major investment banks
Last Friday, National Bank of Australia, Nordic Union Bank, Bank of America Corporation and Societe Generale respectively announced their foreign exchange forecasts for 2021 and their forecasts for the euro., dollar and pound sterlingThe future trend is analyzed.
National Bank of Australia: limited rebound in the dollar, bearish in the medium term, EURUSDIt will be 1.30 at the end of the year.
The National Bank of Australia (NAB) noted that the dollar's rise may be limited in the short term and is expected to fall further in the medium term, especially given the US budget and current account deficits:
"there is a risk that the dollar will rebound against the trend, but it will not change our medium-term bearish view on the dollar.The pound is against the dollar和Exchange rate against US dollarIt is expected to rise further.
"if the dollar does rebound in the coming weeks, we will only see it as a rebound against the trend," NAB said. Because the recent rise in yields is global, not unique to the United States. The US budget and current account deficits are another important factor in the expected medium-term depreciation of the dollar. "
The US needs to attract strong capital flows to finance its deficit, while a weak dollar is needed to attract inflows. NAB added:
"We also believe that while current and planned financial support related to the COVID-19 epidemic will support US economic growth, assuming that the US will still rely heavily on foreign investors to finance a record double deficit, the impact of the deficit is negative for the dollar."
National Bank of Australia Foreign Exchange Forecast for the year 2023:
Nordic Union Bank: the market is expected to begin to question the Fed's shrinking table this summer, and the yield will be good for the dollar in recent months.
Monetary experts at Nordea expect yields to move in favour of the dollar in the coming months, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) wants to limit long-term yields in the eurozone.
Foreign exchange strategists at Nordea also expect the relative success of the vaccine programme to be an important factor in supporting the dollar. The bank pointed out that vaccination in the United States is almost twice as fast as that in the European Union, which may also allow the United States to lift more restrictions earlier and help the US economic recovery.
As a result, the bank expects the market to start questioning the pace of the Fed's bond-buying program again around the summer at the latest. The Fed is widely expected to scale back its bond purchases for the first time in the first half of 2022, but the bank believes that forecast is too late.
The bank expects that by the end of 2021EUR / USDThe exchange rate will fall back to 1.1600. Commodity currencies are also expected to weaken by the end of the year.The pound is against the dollarThe exchange rate will be limited by the appreciation of the United States.
Nordic Union Bank Foreign Exchange Forecast for the year 2022:
Bank of America Corporation: the pound is expected to continue to rise due to the market background, but it will decline at the same time.EUR / USD及The pound is against the dollarForecast
Bank of America Corporation will exchange euro to sterling by the end of 2021The exchange rate forecast for the end of 2022 has also been lowered to 0.88 from 0.91. However, Bank of America Corporation has also been greatly reduced.EUR / USDPrediction ofThe pound is against the dollarThe forecast was also sharply lowered from 1.33 to 1.31 at the end of 2021.
Bank of America Corporation (BoA) said: "strong vaccination will lead to a stronger recovery in the UK economy in the coming quarters, as the UK will be out of trouble and sufficient to provide further support for the pound to enter a strong seasonal tailwind in April."
Rising optimism about the growth outlook has pushed gilt yields higher, a key factor supporting sterling, especially as the Bank of England rules out short-term negative interest rate measures. Bank of America Corporation said:
The pound benefited in large part from a favourable market background-bond yields and equities both rose. If bond yields continue to rise and stocks continue to support, sterling will continue its current rally. "
Bank of America Corporation's foreign exchange forecast table for the year 2022:
Soci é t é G é n é rale: carefully predict that the dollar will weaken and that the euro will not exceed 1.30 against the dollar.
Exchange rate analyst at Societe Generale
The dollar is still expected to weaken in the coming months, but they will take a slightly cautious stance given expectations of strong US economic growth.
The bank expectsEUR / USDIt will not exceed 1.30 and will weaken next year. Commodities are expected to rise furtherThe pound is against the dollarThe exchange rate is also expected to rise net, although the bank does not expect the pound as a whole to rise significantly further.
"once the front end of the US interest rate curve begins to reflect tightening," the bank said.
EUR / USD
The spread of interest rates may change
EUR / USD
It looks like it will peak in 2021. "
Societe Generale Foreign Exchange Forecast for the year 2022:
