Events. The company announced its 2020 results, KuaiBao. The company's operating income in 2020 is expected to be 1.088 billion yuan, an increase of 7.29% over the same period last year; the net profit is expected to be 133 million yuan, an increase of 45.37% over the same period last year; and the non-net profit is expected to be 125 million yuan, an increase of 41.98% over the same period last year.
According to KuaiBao's estimate, the operating income of Q4 in 2020 is expected to be 239 million yuan, down 30.52% from the same period last year; the net profit is expected to be 62 million yuan, an increase of 40.91% over the same period last year; and the non-net profit is expected to be 58 million yuan.
Viewpoint: the profit side performed much better than expected, while the performance of paramivir injection was strong, with more highlights in 2021.
1. The profit side is much better than expected; the revenue side is expected to be due to the generic drug sector affected by the epidemic and collection in 2020, the performance of paramivir injection is still strong. Under the epidemic in 2020, the profit side of the company still achieved a growth rate of 45%, which exceeded expectations. The revenue side is expected to be due to the impact of the epidemic and collection of generic drugs, the growth rate is not as fast as the profit end, but we expect the paramivir injection to achieve 40% and 60% growth under the epidemic. In the future, with the increasing proportion of paramivir injection, the influence of generic drug plate is gradually diminishing.
two。 The company will see more in 2021. Based on clinical progress and terminal sales, it is speculated that:
Rabies monoclonal antibody: phase III clinical enrollment is completed in March-May; Clinical observation period in Phase III in June-August is over, data is locked up; approved by NDA;2022 at the end of the year
Paramivir injection: under the epidemic in 2020, it is expected to achieve a growth rate of 40% and 60%, and in 2021, with the expansion of the grass-roots market and the gradual control of the epidemic, it is expected to continue to maintain a rapid growth trend.
Paramivir inhaled solution: it is expected to be reported for production in the second half of 2021 and approved in 2022.
3. Reorganize the investment logic of the company. Nanxin Pharmaceutical holds the echelon of 1x 2X innovation & consumer products. The stock variety of paramivir injection still showed rapid growth under the epidemic, and sales are expected to reach a peak of 20-3 billion. Rabies monoclonal antibody China and the United States double reported international quality, both innovation and consumption attributes, 3-5 years only 2 enterprises compete in the 10 billion level market, peak sales are expected to reach several billion levels. Paramivir inhalation solution is a high barrier dosage form that attacks the home drug market and is also expected to reach the level of billions of dollars in peak sales. There are other pipelines in the follow-up, which are of good quality and watch a lot.
Profit forecast and valuation. According to the performance of KuaiBao, we adjusted our profit forecast. Leaving aside the merger table of Xingmeng Biology for the time being, we estimate that the operating income from 2020 to 2022 will be 1.088 billion yuan, 1.509 billion yuan and 2.127 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 7.3%, 38.7% and 41.0% over the same period last year. The net profit of homing is 133 million yuan, 204 million yuan and 316 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding growth rate is 45.4% 53.5% 55.1%. The corresponding PE is 0.95,1.46 and 2.26 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 45x, 29x and 19x, respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: product sales are less than expected risk; product research and development failure risk; industrial policy negative impact risk; major asset restructuring failure risk.