Equity incentive landing, assessment indicators to ensure follow-up performance

The company issues a draft of equity incentive, which is expected to grant 5.4725 million stock options at an exercise price of 40.25 yuan per share. It is deeply bound to include directors, vice presidents, chief financial officers, secretaries of the board of directors, middle managers and core technical (business) backbones, according to the exercise price of 40.25 yuan, involving a stock market value of about 22.2376 million yuan.

The main difficulty of the assessment target is that the growth rate is relatively high, with the annual relative 20-year growth rate of 30%, 60% and 90% respectively in 21-22-23.

Forecast year-on-year growth in 2020-4.61% Murray 5.99%

The company issued a performance forecast that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 180 million yuan to 200 million yuan in 2020, an increase of-4.61% to 5.99% over the same period last year, and is expected to deduct a net profit of 166 million yuan to 186 million yuan, an increase of 0.07% and 12.10% over the same period last year. In a single quarter, 20Q4 achieved a net profit of 0.23-43 million yuan, an increase of-17.86 percent over the same period last year.

The impact of the new policy is limited, which is good for the logic of operator-side acquisition.

We estimate that the impact of the new policy on the operating side of the market will be reduced by about 17%, which is significantly better than market expectations. In addition, the new policy accelerates the clearing of the testing station pattern, which is conducive to the company's later acquisition of the testing station, on the one hand, it is easier to acquire (the seller is more willing to sell), on the other hand, it is expected to reduce the purchase price. In the long run, the operating logic of the company's transformation has not been affected.

Risk tips: policy risks, increased competition brought by new entrants and other investment suggestions: undervalue the car test leader, maintain the "buy" rating, we expect the 2020-2022 net return to be 1.90pm, 258pm, 350m, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 35.6%, 35.6%, respectively. The current share price corresponds to a valuation of 37.1max 27.4x20.2x, maintaining a "buy" rating.