Events. The company announced its 2020 results, KuaiBao. The company's operating income in 2020 is expected to be 3.295 billion yuan, an increase of 1.17% over the same period last year, and its net profit is expected to be 839 million yuan, an increase of 16.79% over the same period last year.
According to KuaiBao's estimate, the operating income of Q4 in 2020 is expected to be 947 million yuan, an increase of 11.67% over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning home is expected to be 260 million yuan, an increase of 56.63% over the same period last year.
Viewpoint: the revenue side meets expectations, the profit side outperforms expectations, and Q4 performs brightly in a single quarter.
1. The revenue side met expectations, the profit side exceeded expectations, and 2020Q4 performed brightly in a single quarter. The company's Q1-4 operating income is 633 million yuan (year-on-year-11.76%), 761 million yuan (year-on-year-5.13%), 955 million yuan (year-on-year + 7.15%), 947 million yuan (year-on-year + 11.67%). The revenue end has improved significantly quarter by quarter, and the impact of the epidemic on the company has gradually diminished. At the same time, taking into account the price reduction factor, the actual sales performance may be better. The profit side's performance exceeded expectations, especially Q4's outstanding performance in a single quarter, which may be due to the improvement of the company's operating efficiency, strengthening expense control and other reasons.
two。 Compaq International Phase III Clinic continues to advance, waiting for 2021Q1 data to be revealed: 2020Q4, Compaq nAMD indications International Phase III Clinic has completed visits to all subjects at the 36th week, and is expected to be unblinded in 2021Q1 and listed overseas in 2022-2023.
DME/BRVO/CRVO 's phase III clinical trial has also been reviewed by the FDA special trial program, and overseas market space is expected to be opened.
3. Looking forward to 2021, the two new indications are expected to be expanded, the outcome of health insurance negotiations is more optimistic, the epidemic situation is gradually recovered, Compaq is expected to continue to release volume, the global multicenter clinical data blindness is worthy of attention. Compaq added DME, CNV two major indications into the health insurance, a total of nearly 10 million patients, to further expand the scope of Compaq Medicare, promote the dose. The reimbursement amount of medical insurance is increased, and the three drugs can be calculated together, which is beneficial to improve the consultation rate, and patients are more inclined to choose Compaq, which is more economical. In 2020, the income end will improve quarter by quarter, the impact of the epidemic will gradually diminish, and Compaq is expected to continue to increase its volume. In addition, the global multicenter clinical data of nAMD indications are expected to be blinded by Q1 next year, which is worthy of attention.
Profit forecast and valuation. We believe that Compaq is expected to bring accelerated volume with a smaller price drop in 2021, and chemicals and traditional Chinese medicine will continue to provide stable cash flow. According to the performance of KuaiBao, we adjusted our profit forecast. We estimate that the operating income from 2020 to 2022 will be 3.295 billion yuan, 4.048 billion yuan and 4.851 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 1.2%, 22.9% and 19.8% over the same period last year. The net profit of homecoming is 839 million yuan, 1.011 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding growth rate is 16.8%, 20.5%, 20.7% and 1.33 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 42x, 35x and 29x respectively.
Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: Compaq sales are not as expected risk; Compaq clinical failure risk in the United States; non-biological drug sector adjustment speed is lower than expected risk; risk of failure in new drug research and development.
