Milan Kundera once said:"in the rubble of time, the scenery on both sides of the strait is not important, but whether the stream will flow to the fertile field or the desert."

In terms of the secondary market, this is a kaleidoscope. People who come here to invest, speculate and gamble can see the world they want to see and find the success stories they are eager to find. In this world, the law is uncertain, and the ultimate success is measured only by the profits made. If you don't get the right result, no one will applaud it.

Whether it is professionals who wear suits in and out of high-end CBD every day, researchers who bump on rolling wheels with dust on the way to research, or even losers squatting in front of computers with instant noodles, as long as we choose the secondary market, the ultimate goal may be to become a "speculative jerk", because the behavior basis of all your transactions is inseparable from prediction. No matter by year, by day, by minute Whether you predict changes in stock prices or corporate earnings. In short, if the test is right, it is the master, and if the test is wrong, it is the senior colonel.

When right and wrong happen intermittently to you, it's hard not to be a jerk. An informed prediction is a profession, and an unfounded prediction is a blind guess, but the beauty of life is that guessing does not necessarily lose to a major. No one cares whether "when the profession becomes a burden, the market becomes a casino", but it is tantamount to playing hooligans with market factors when the prediction is wrong-I am an eagle, but I lost to a pig because of a typhoon. What a far-fetched and pale reason.

Although it is common sense that determines the final result, how can common sense be revealed in chaos before the wind stops? Like the song in the vertical line: "Truth is only a decoration in the darkroom until the absurdity is proved, and it is not up to anyone to show its value only when it is lit up in front of the eyes."

It is precisely because it is true that sometimes eagles lose to pigs in the secondary market, and there is no proper reason to explain them, so many people overestimate their divination ability and rush into the field at any time at the risk of being trampled.Every tragedy is based on greed and an overestimation of one's own abilities. Charlie Munger said: "the surest way to get something you want is to make yourself worthy of it." There is no improvement in ability, only clinging to desire, often have to face the abyss in the end.

The securities market is a place with the lowest threshold for investment, and some people even regard it as a legitimate casino, but when thousands of people stand in front of the computer screen and bet on the same K line, have you ever thought carefully: what are you going to win?

Every year's trading, every day's trading, every hour's trading, even every minute and every second of trading constitute the volatility of the market itself.In terms of seconds, we experience rough seas almost all the time, but in terms of years, the earth-shaking of any day will seem calm.It will pass.

With the passage of time, looking back on the past, did you really cross the messy rubble of the market and rush to the fertile soil of asset appreciation?

Value investment is undoubtedly one of the most dazzling pearls in the field of investment. Although it is a clich é topic, I still want to talk about my understanding.

The secondary market is extremely efficient most of the time. In normal days of the market, I have tried to buy big domestic and international consumer companies with a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio (15-20 times). In the past five years, the stock price has fluctuated within the range of 30% around the price you buy. in the long run, it is a straight line, with almost no income in five years except for a pitiful dividend.

Is this what Buffett calls long-term value investment? Maybe when the big bull market comes, they will also have the chance to double, but how many times in your life have you had the opportunity to encounter a big bull market? How many five years of life can you stand waiting for such a grain without harvest? And if your stock is rising because of the bull market and all the stocks are rising, what's the point of spending a lot of time and effort picking stocks?

Your income has been decided at the moment of buying. To achieve above-average returns in mature markets is definitely not as simple as buying blue chips and holding them for a long time.

Even in a bull market, buying companies with reasonable price-to-earnings ratios may cause losses, and when the tide of the sector goes out, even if what you buy is not expensive, it will cause accidental injury.

In the matter of investment, there are thousands of people. If you leave the secondary market to invest, it is actually very simple. The enterprise can be considered by the standard of doing industry, and even the feasibility of investment can be measured by the rate of return on rent collection. But in the secondary market, these simple logic will be subverted in the short term or even in a specific period of time, and the problem lies in valuations and expectations. To put it bluntly, it is market pricing. The same enterprise will cause different pricing in different markets, which does not mean that one of the markets must go wrong. If you use this as a basis for buying and selling, you will take a detour. There is only one reason: the preferences of the market's price setters are different.

Some people have compared the market capitalization of Huayi Brothers listed on A shares to Boehner Pictures listed on US stocks, and come to the conclusion that it is undervalued or overvalued. It seems that this logic is correct on the surface, but when you think about it, even if there is an obvious price difference between Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Connect, you should rethink your thinking instead of complaining that the market is ineffective. Even the same enterprises have different pricing at different stages of the same market. When the market mood is optimistic, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times is not too high, considering the expected price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times next year and 15 times the year after next. But less than two months, when the capital ebb, no one wants a static price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times. Is this just a tragedy caused by shareholder selling and industry audit?

Between the value and the price is always the ups and downs of the K-line.What investment needs is a stereotype of the relationship between time and stocks, otherwise, chasing the market, for most people, is just drifting between small losses and small wins.Don't forget that the enterprise itself is the main body of our investment.

In the face of the constantly refreshing data on the computer screen, it is easy to change people's mind, and mistakes in the field of investment are often made in a single thought, so the problem lies in the thought of heaven and hell.

In the secondary market, if every participant wants to survive for a long time, he must build his own investment system.This system is a sieve for you, so that you can make a distinction between the opportunities in the market according to your ability, sift out those you can't grasp, and leave those you can grasp. To reduce the existence of this "one thought" is to retain wealth. If your sieve is too dense, leaving a lot of specious opportunities on the sieve surface, delusional to seize all opportunities, then your sieve will become dice.

Everyone has different talents and personalities, so in the end, everyone's sieve is only suitable for their own use, and others can't sift out the same results with your sieve, even if they give you only one Buffett at the same time. You can only be yourself in the end.

On the other hand, those who have never thought of making a sieve can only survive in the waves and annihilate in silence. So,Investment must be the pursuit of success in the big picture, not the tricks and skills that cling to the details. What most people lack is a penetrating ability to invest, rather than the analytical ability to find good companies or the judgment to earn a vote in obvious trends.If you don't have this kind of penetration, just rely on cleverness, ten years, your account is standing still, not losing is good-and not losing is already losing.

The enterprise is the foundation of investment, even if other factors are wrong, the enterprise chooses right, the risk will be reduced; of course, you can not be influenced by the position thinking, and what YY buys is the next Vipshop Holdings Limited. Good performance, unexpectedly high growth is the most important driver of the stock price. Behind the record high stock price, Vipshop Holdings Limited has maintained high revenue and gross profit margin in the past three years to create such a trend.

The change of the stock price leads the market to have a deeper understanding of the enterprise. when people figure out why the stock price continues to rise, it is the process that the market wakes up from quantitative change to qualitative change.All you have to do is stand in the right position before the rally and wait for the gradual recognition of the market. Leave when the market fully understands and overdraws this understanding.

Successful investment is essentially waiting for the market to wake up, not for the market to wake itself up. Only in the right direction, with the right logic to adhere to will have the right results.

Smooth performance can only lead to mediocre stock prices, which is the embodiment of market efficiency, including expectations for the future. In this sense, the only thing the market needs is surprise. Buy enterprises, do not like the movie "Infernal Affairs" said: "everything, that is, there is no future."

On the other side of the market, investment should chase the tuyere of the market, which in itself is right. When the wind comes, capital will stir up the whole industry, but only outstanding performance will keep good companies at the top and all the way up. Perhaps, for good companies, the sky is the end of the stock price. But for mediocre companies, they eventually have to fall back to dust, and the fatal thing is that you don't know when that day will come. otherwise,It takes a year to rise, three days to fall back, and you must be there when the lightning strikes. You may have witnessed the most beautiful scenery and may be killed unfortunately.

It must be admitted that the starting point for value investment must be the premise that the price begins to be attractive. Unfortunately, the market is so smart that it often tempts smart people to make mistakes at relatively cheap prices. Cheapness can never be a reason to buy, and most of it is just a story about waiting for an uncertain message in an industry with uncertain prospects.

Don't paralyze yourself with previous heights and value investments. all gory lessons make the same mistake: be anchored by existing prices and determine your value logic. In some areas, you can barely master it for ten thousand hours, but there are also things that become more confused as you invest more time, such as Kanpan. Human beings are accustomed to finding logic and summing up after things happen, and have a natural inductive tendency to simplify complexity and point to the point, which is the ladder of human progress. But in the secondary market, summing up the stock price is basically "as soon as man thinks, God laughs".

Don't sell because you fall, don't buy because you go up. Maybe it's just beginning to get started in the field of value investment.

The ruthlessness of the market will not take into account anyone's face. In the long run, everyone's gains in the capital market come from the breadth of understanding of the market and the depth of understanding of the enterprise, which gives you a coordinate position in the market.

Starting from the price-to-earnings ratio formula PE= stock price / EPS, we can deduce the conclusion that stock price = annual earnings per share × price-earnings ratio, that is to say, there are two key variables that affect the stock price, one is earnings per share, the other is price-earnings ratio. Earnings per share is determined by the enterprise itself, and the reasonable price-to-earnings ratio is determined by the market pricing mechanism, they are not a simple sum, but multiplication.

If we grasp these two variables and the relationship between them, we will grasp the outline and order of the sieve. In the secondary market investment, the technology part is based on the rational judgment of the enterprise, and the art part is based on the balance between value and strategy, that is to say, as long as you participate in the secondary market, it must involve speculation, and maybe speculation has its own strict definition.But in my opinion, the success of speculation is based on strategy rather than luck, which is the biggest difference from gambling.

The taste of life comes from rejecting most mediocre things, while the taste of speculation comes from rejecting most mediocre opportunities.

Finally, let's conclude this article with a few digressions.

Everyone has a different level of mind. Some people practice their lives based on painful lessons and strict precepts, and they can only live up to the habits that others are born with.It is even more emotional when this happens to two brothers or sisters in the same family. Education can increase one's knowledge, but not one's mind. For people with a high level of mental knowledge, to uphold self-nature in life is for others to pursue the realm of spiritual practice that they want to achieve. In this sense, people have their own destiny.

Just as there is a saying in "quiet Dream Shadow", "if you are talented and rich, you must be able to cultivate both Fu and Hui." If you don't succeed in the market for a long time, you don't have to cling to the dream of becoming an investment guru. Value investment increases your chances of making money in the stock market, but does not change your ability to accommodate wealth. At that time, if Newton had entered the stock market earlier, the world would have lost a great scientist and a mediocre investor.

So,Buffett's success is not because "he understood the principle of value investment a long time ago and persisted in it for a lifetime". This is the logic of his success rather than the cause of his success. the real reason is that he has found the field of his talent.Buffett's book is broken, and people who invest but lose money year after year are everywhere; similarly, Bill Gates' success is not because he dropped out of college to start a business. I've seen more people who start a business before finishing high school and are still hanging around doing nothing.

In the big pattern of life, as long as you choose the right area corresponding to your talents and interests, it is the best investment.