The company forecasts that after-tax net profit in 2020 will increase by no less than 70% year-on-year, which is higher than we expected. The company issued a positive profit forecast: net profit after tax in 2020 is expected to grow by no less than 70% year-on-year. The company's performance is higher than we expected, mainly due to the one-time income of 573 million yuan caused by the equity transfer of the company's subsidiaries; in addition to this impact, we estimate that the company's 2020 return net profit is basically the same as the same period last year.
Pay attention to the main points
Stable growth of overseas business: 1) during the epidemic period, overseas market demand increased significantly, driving company revenue to chase Li Gushan, 1020/2020/3Q20, company revenue respectively compared with the same period last year-26%, 14%, 20%, of which overseas revenue was-3%, 27%, 60%. As of 3Q20, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 43.7%, which is higher than that of 1H20 (8.7ppt.2). Under the global epidemic, the government's fiscal stimulus promotes the demand for color TV sets. According to the industry online data monitoring, the 1Q/2Q/3Q/4020 export shipments of the color TV industry are-14%, 6%, 22%, 8% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the year-on-year cumulative growth of + 6% 4020 has been achieved. 3) the overseas color TV shipments of 2020amp 3020 were + 19% and 99% respectively compared with the same period last year, with a significant growth rate in sub-industries.
Domestic business is still under pressure: 1) industry online data monitoring, color TV industry 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q20 domestic shipments are respectively year-on-year-23% Maximi 1% Maximi 7% Maozai 9%, the industry prosperity is not high. 2) according to AVC monitoring, 4Q20 China color cable online / offline retail sales are + 21.9% Universe 11.2% Power2020 online / offline retail sales respectively compared with the same period last year + 10% Universe 24% mai 4Q20 Skyworth (including Kukai) online / offline retail sales + 17% Skyworth 1.8%, 2020 online / offline retail sales + 0.5% 6ppm 20 respectively year on year.
The growth rate of the company online is slightly lower than that of the industry, and the offline business recovery is better. 3) according to Luotu Technology data, the top seven TV brands of Chinese mainland shipped 39.69 million sets in 2020,-10.7% of the same period last year. Skyworth (including Kukai) shipped more than 7.1 million units, ranking second with Hisense (including VIDAA).
The prices of raw materials such as panels promote the retail price increase of color TV sets: 1) since the second half of 2020, panel prices have continued to rise month-on-month. In January 2021, 32-inch panel prices rose 100% compared with June 2020. 55-inch panel prices increased by 63.4% compared with June. The pressure on the production cost side of enterprises is obvious. 2) according to AVC monitoring, the average online / offline retail prices of the domestic TV industry in 4Q20 are + 25% and 14% respectively compared with the same period last year, which is further expanded compared with the increase of 3Q20. 3) the average online / offline retail price of Skyworth is + 20.6% and 19.3% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the range of offline price increase is higher than that of the industry. 4) the competition in the Chinese color TV market is fierce, although the average price of the industry has improved, it is still difficult to fully absorb the pressure of panel price increase, and we expect that the profit situation of the company's business in the Chinese market has not improved significantly.
Valuation and suggestion
The company's performance KuaiBao was higher than we expected. Mainly due to the influence of one-time income, we raised our net profit in 2020 by 33% to 1.31 billion yuan, maintained 2021 net profit of 1 billion yuan, introduced 2022 net profit of 1.19 billion yuan, maintained neutral rating and target price of HK $2.59, corresponding to 6.2x/5.2x 2021 / 2022 PX E, an increase of 8.4%. The company's current share price corresponds to 5.7x/4.8x 2021 / 2022.
Risk
The risk of rising prices of raw materials and the risk of demand fluctuation.