Goldman Sachs GroupIt is believed that despite the general rise in global bond yields, the dollar is still expected to fall against Gmur10 and emerging market currencies.
Goldman Sachs Group said in the research report that as long as US short-term interest rates remain low and other curves are changing, the dollar may still be under pressure.
The dollar is also expected to fall against emerging market currencies as falling bond yields are constrained by valuations and rapid global growth will be driven by vaccinations and economic reopening over the next six months.
Goldman Sachs Group pointed out that in terms of bonds, similar to the "undersize panic" in 2013, global real interest rates rose more than expected, posing a risk to Goldman Sachs Group's internal point of view. However, yields on 10-year inflation-protected bonds are unlikely to rise more than 20 basis points from their current levels because the timing of the Fed's rate hike is unknown and global neutral interest rates remain low.
If US 10-year Treasury yields are to significantly exceed Goldman Sachs Group's 1.50 per cent year-end target, it is likely to depend on a widening break-even inflation rate.