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神马股份(600810):尼龙66一体化龙头 新项目助力再次腾飞

Shenma Co., Ltd. (600810): nylon 66 integration leading new project helps to take off again

中泰證券 ·  Feb 24, 2021 00:00

The whole industry chain is equipped with nylon 66 leading enterprises. Shenma Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the domestic nylon 66 industrial chain. the company has a production capacity of 130000 tons of hexanediamine, 290000 tons of adipic acid, 300000 tons of polymeric monomer nylon 66 salt, 180000 tons of nylon 66 chips and 30,000 tons under construction. Nylon 66 industrial silk production capacity of 113000 tons, nylon 66 cord fabric production capacity of 80,000 tons, nylon 66 airbag silk production capacity of 13000 tons. On the one hand, the company cooperates with Invida for a long time to effectively ensure the supply of adiponitrile; on the other hand, it actively promotes the construction of 50,000 tons of adiponitrile, which can reduce import dependence and further consolidate the company's dominant position in the nylon industry.

There is still room for PA66 prices to rise in 2021. Driven by the lightweight of downstream vehicles and applications in the civil field, the demand trend of PA66 is improving. The suspension of the epidemic in 2020 and the snowstorm in the United States in 2021 have a great impact on the equipment of the industry, and the industry force majeure occurs frequently. At present, the price of PA66 is 35000 yuan / ton. As the global epidemic improves, the economy continues to recover and demand continues to improve, nylon 66 slices are expected to rise further.

Expand the PC industry chain horizontally. PC and PA66 are two core engineering plastics. The company is under construction of 400000 tons of PC (100000 tons of the first phase) and 130000 tons of bisphenol A, which is expected to be put into production by the end of 2021. The company's PC supporting bisphenol A project, on the one hand, because of its integrated design, the project profitability is strongly guaranteed, on the other hand, because its downstream customers have more overlap with the company's nylon 66 plate, it will effectively cooperate with the company's nylon 66 plate.

Actively promote the supporting industrial chain. The company is building 400000 tons of liquid ammonia, 400 million cubic meters of hydrogen per year and 30,000 tons of 1,6-hexanediol per year. 400000 tons of liquid ammonia and 400 million N cubic meters of hydrogen per year will provide a stable supply of raw materials for the production of nylon 66 salt and its intermediates, which can effectively avoid the adverse impact on the normal operation of the company due to fluctuations in the market price of raw materials, and effectively reduce the company's production and operating costs; on the other hand, the surplus liquid ammonia will be sold to further improve the profitability of Nylon Chemical Company. 1pyr6-hexanediol will further improve the added value of the company's existing adipic acid products, form the scale of upstream products, and the diversification, serialization and refinement of downstream products, make the product structure more reasonable, and further enhance the market competitiveness of the company. realize the fine development of the enterprise.

The company ushered in a period of rapid development. The company's four core projects under construction have a total investment of 5.787 billion yuan and are expected to achieve a net profit of 908 million yuan after commissioning. On the one hand, the company continues to deepen the layout of the PA66 industrial chain, on the other hand, it actively broadens the PC industrial chain and promotes supporting projects of the industrial chain, which will effectively improve profitability and profitability stability.

"buy" investment rating. It is predicted that the return net profit of the company from 2020 to 2022 is 3.35,12.41 and 1.57 billion yuan respectively, and the PE is 32 times, 9 times and 7 times respectively.

Risk hints: raw material price fluctuation risk, environmental protection and production safety risk, project construction is not up to expectations, and the public data used in the research report may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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