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摩根大通:债券收益率上升是“健康迹象”

JPMorgan Chase & Co: the rise in bond yields is a "health sign"

新浪財經 ·  Feb 24, 2021 14:05

The recent surge in bond yields has spooked global markets, but JPMorgan Chase & CoThe private banking sector said this could be a reflection of "growth optimism" as the global economy rebounded from the novel coronavirus pandemic.

"if you take into account rising bond yields or stronger economic growth, or even a little bit of inflation at this point in the cycle-these are signs of health," Julia Wang, executive director and global market strategist, said on Wednesday.

Her comments come amid growing concern among some investors about the recent rise in bond yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, for example, quickly rose to its highest level since the worst of the epidemic. When yields rise, bond prices fall.

"I think the global economy is experiencing a cyclical recovery and the rise in bond yields is largely a reflection of this growth optimism," Wang said. "

Much of this optimism is expected to be "realized" in Asia this year, where "very strong" growth momentum is emerging, the strategist said.

"if you consider our position in terms of cyclical growth, the spillover effects of US fiscal policy will be very meaningful to Asian exporters," Wang said. There are also some commodity exporters in Asia who will also feel a positive boost from the rebound in commodity prices. "

In terms of fundamentals, she added, the situation appeared to have improved "slightly" over the past six months or so, with the current account deficit "narrowing across the board". When a country's imports exceed exports, there will be a current account deficit.

"if you think about the root cause of the steepening of the yield curve, I don't think it's a threat yet, but over time, I think this growth [optimism] is actually the driving force for Asian markets," Wang said. "

When longer-term Treasurys, such as 30-year bonds, yield higher than shorter-term bonds, such as 5-or 10-year bonds, the yield curve becomes steeper.

Typically, a steeper yield curve is seen as a positive sign for the economy, stock markets and corporate profits, while a flattening of the yield curve is a warning of future economic weakness.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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