Recently, the latest prediction of public offering legend Wang Hongyuan has aroused great concern in the industry.

Co-Chairman of the former Sea Open Source FundWang Hongyuan pointed out in a roadshow at the end of January that "the 12-year bull market represented by the United States is likely to come to an end, and it is difficult for A shares to have a unilateral bull market this year."

This judgment seems to be gradually being tested in the past two trading days.

In the past two days, A shares and US stocks have made a continuous pullback. As of today's close, the three major A-share indexes continued to pull back; as of press release, hot US stocks collectively fell before trading, with NIO Inc. down 10% and B station down more than 8%.

So where is Wang Hongyuan's logic that the bull market in US stocks will end? Why are you so optimistic about Hong Kong stocks? What is the biggest risk in the capital market in 2021? When the market plummeted, Wang Hongyuan gave an exclusive response to Futu Information on the above questions.

Us stocks have a 12-year bull market会End

问：Please describe in detailEnd of JanuaryYour logic on the idea that the 12-year bull market represented by the United States is likely to end. How to look at the valuation of "FAANMG"?

Wang Hongyuan:With regard to the end of the 12-year bull market in US stocks, first, the current valuation of US stocks has reflected all the positive fundamentals, and it is excessive; second, since last year, it has actually been a market for printing money. it is a liquidity market, not based on the rise in fundamentals, but on the rise in liquidity.

Therefore, the fiscal and monetary policies of the United States have basically run out of ammunition, and we can only rely on the world monetary effect to promote the rise of the market, but because of the contradiction between one share, one vote in economy and one person, one vote in politics, as well as the factor of diminishing marginal effect, so the risks of US stocks now outweigh the returns.

Including in the process of rising US stocks, FAANMG actually rose even more. Most U. S. stocks are mediocre or even falling, and FAANMG's stocks are now at unprecedented highs because of their good liquidity and leading effect.

Hong Kong stocks will beat US stocks by 10% and 20% this year.

问：You mentioned in your recent roadshow that "China's stock market in 2021 will not be a unilateral bear market, but it does not have the conditions for a unilateral bull market." Equity investment in 2021 can focus on targets with registered valuation levels in the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market, but such targets account for only about 10% of A-shares. Does that mean that 90% of the opportunities are in Hong Kong stocks?

Wang Hongyuan:Hong Kong stocks have been the valuation of the registration system for a long time, so there is no risk of registration system, except for a few individuals with fundamental problems. For a long time, A shares have been approved and approved, meaning that 90% of the stocks in A shares are valued by the approval system. For example, of the more than 4,000 A shares, only 300 to 500 are valuation under the registration system, while the rest are valuation based on the approval system, which is risky.

However, whether it is an A-share or Hong Kong stock company, as long as it is a Chinese company, the fundamental risk is small and controllable.

问：For Hong Kong stocks, do you think this year will be an overall bull market? Please point out the three segments in which you are most optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, as well as the specific logic.

Wang Hongyuan:Hong Kong stocks will be one of the best performers in the world's major capital markets this year. For example, the rise and fall of the US market is flat, and the Hong Kong stock market is up 10%. If the US stock market is down 20%, the Hong Kong stock market may be flat. Hong Kong stocks will beat US stocks by 10% Mur20% this year, which will be the best among the world's major capital markets, and will be better than the western markets represented by US stocks, and Hong Kong stocks will also perform better than A shares this year.

Specific sub-areas, I am currently mainly focused on macro-research, there is no research on this sub-area, so it is impossible to list.

问：In your opinion, what is the biggest risk in 2021?

Wang Hongyuan: one is the risk of the registration system, and the second is the risk transmitted from the international market to the domestic market.

He has succeeded in "shouting" many times.

Wang Hongyuan, who is he?

Wang Hongyuan is a benchmark figure in China's capital market. He joined the industry research of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Securities, the first securities firm in China, when he graduated in 1997, and joined the Southern Fund in 1998. and set a record of 26-year-old fund manager and 27-year-old investment director of the fund company. In 2013, Wang Hongyuan joined Qianhai Open Source Fund and became the first batch of employees to hold equity stakes in public equity fund companies.

The attention of the capital market to Wang Hongyuan has something to do with his success in "shouting" many times in the past:

• As early as May 2006, Wang Hongyuan publicly declared that "the only industry that can surpass the moneymaking effect of non-ferrous metals this year is brokerage concept stocks." In the subsequent market, his prediction was verified, and Wang Hongyuan became famous in the war.

• In January 2008, Wang Hongyuan proposed that the large agricultural sector is an important candidate for the 2008 excess income sector. The subsequent market also confirmed that the agricultural sector was indeed a return depression at the end of the big market at that time.

• In a letter to clients at the end of 2014, on the eve of a new bull market, he claimed that A-shares would usher in a huge bull market. A-shares then ushered in a "mad cow" market in the first half of 2015.

• In May 2015, when A shares were still soaring, Wang Hongyuan said: "the gem and small and medium-sized board bubbles will be disillusioned at any time." "immediately, he directed the Qianhai open source fund to implement strategic defense. This time, he avoided the decline in the next six months.

• On July 7, 2020, Wang Hongyuan spoke out again: the fundamentals of the global economy are very poor and do not support the current valuation level of the global stock market. China's economic fundamentals are relatively the best in the world, and it will be the first large economy to achieve a substantial recovery in a few years' time, which is worth based on the long-term layout of the multi-year cycle.

Standing at the moment, will Wang Hongyuan's latest judgment come true? The market will tell us the answer.

More exclusive views of investment bosses, welcome to follow the bullpen."Little Financial Kitchen"